303
FXUS64 KMEG 090351
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1051 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Mid-South
  with highs in the low to mid 90s over the next seven days.

- Heat index values may approach 105 for some areas on Sunday,
  becoming more widespread by Monday. Heat Advisories will likely
  be warranted for portions of the Mid-South during the workweek.

- Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue
  Sunday, mainly south of the I-40 corridor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A fairly calm overnight period is progressing across the Mid-
South currently with temperatures spanning the 70s. Earlier
shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to wane and move
out of the area, leaving behind dry conditions. With generally
light winds and low dew point depressions overnight, expect for
patchy fog to develop over the next few hours through sunrise,
especially for locations that saw precipitation Saturday
afternoon. Any fog that does develop will quickly mix out
following sunrise.

Beginning on Sunday, we will slowly transition back into a true,
summertime pattern which will likely continue for the foreseeable
future. With generally little upper-level forcing, the majority
of any shower and thunderstorm activity will remain diurnally
driven. Coverage may be a bit more scattered on Sunday, mainly
south of I-40, but coverage will likely remain isolated by Monday
through at least midweek. Temperatures will remain closer to
normal on Sunday with lingering cloud coverage, generally in the
upper 80s to low 90s. By Monday and Tuesday with clearing
conditions, high temperatures will quickly rise back to the low
to mid 90s. Probabilistic guidance is still fairly unimpressed
with the potential for heat index values exceeding 105 degrees on
Sunday, but probabilities begin to increase to around 20 to 30%
by Monday and even higher Tuesday onward. As such, we will
continue to monitor the potential for heat headlines as the week
progresses as portions of the Mid-South will likely meet or
exceed the criteria for issuance.

By Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level ridge will begin to
strengthen over the Rockies with a low pressure system moving
through the Great Lakes into the northeast. While the deepening
trough over the midwest will allow our area to shift to subtle
northwesterly flow, latest guidance trends quickly rebuild a high
pressure over our area into next weekend. With the potential
northwest flow regime, this would open the door for a few
shortwaves to swing down through the region and increase PoP
chances. However, guidance is trending a little warmer and drier,
leaning more towards a weaker northwesterly flow pattern over the
Mid-South. Latest LREF guidance does tend to favor a drier, more
summertime pattern through the remainder of the week. ENS
guidance leans more towards a gradual warming trend through the
week and into next weekend, while the GEFS starts much warmer and
falls back closer to normal for our temperatures by the end of
the week. Nonetheless, summer is in full swing for the Mid-South
with highs likely remaining in the low to mid 90s to end the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all four terminals, which is expected
to last through the majority of the night. MKL may see MVFR
visibility reductions near sunrise, but is expected to clear
quickly. Otherwise, light south-southwesterly winds and VFR will
continue through the end of the period. A few afternoon showers
or thunderstorms are expected in and around MEM/MKL/TUP, but
recent guidance has further decreased the coverage of convection.
If this trend continues, the removal of -SHRA/-TSRA may occur at
the aforementioned sites, but given the persistence of a
convective signal, have opted to keep them within the 06z TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A typical, summertime weather pattern will continue for the
foreseeable future with no major fire danger concerns. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast Sunday
afternoon, with isolated coverage through at least the middle of
the week. As such, minimum relative humidity values will remain
above 40% with generally light 20 ft winds through the period.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JAB