Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
838 FXUS64 KMEG 291112 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 612 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 - Afternoon relative humidity levels will remain low into Tuesday, leading to continued elevated wildfire danger. Use caution if burning outdoors and obey all local burn bans. - Temperatures will warm through midweek, with Wednesday and Thursday high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Humidity will increase late this week, in advance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. - Dry autumn weather is expected early next week, with near-normal temperatures in the 70s for highs, and lows in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 00Z upper-air analysis places an upper-level low over New England with a longwave trough extending south into the northern Gulf. Another upper-level low is located over southern California with Hurricane Polo located near Baja California. In between these two features, an elongated upper-level ridge extends from the Southern Plains northeast into the Western Great Lakes Region. Surface high pressure centered near southern Lake Michigan is bringing another dry and very pleasant evening across the Mid- South with late evening temperatures in the 60s. The aforementioned surface high will bring another day of dry weather to the Mid-South with afternoon highs in the 80s to lower 90s. NBM dewpoints continue to be too high in this dry pattern and have blended Tuesday afternoon values towards the NBM 10th percentile. This leads to high confidence in minimum relative humidity values ranging again between 20 to 25% Tuesday afternoon with an elevated fire danger persisting across the Mid-South. Latest mid to long term model trends indicate moisture gradually increasing across the Lower Mississippi Valley towards late this week as surface and upper-level ridging begin to move east and the upper-level low and associated remnants of Hurricane Polo move into the Southern Plains. The onset of rain chances have continued to be delayed in each subsequent model run with the latest data supporting development late Thursday night into Friday as a weak stationary boundary drops into the region. The higher probabilities for rain showers will come this weekend as a northern stream trough moves across the Mississippi Valley and precipitable water values approach 2 inches. Overall shear will remain weak thus best coverage will occur during peak heating. Cooler air is expected to filter in behind the front towards the end of the upcoming weekend with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at all terminals. High pressure will gradually begin to move away from the region, and light southeast winds will veer to south- southwest by mid-morning Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Wildland fire danger will remain elevated into Tuesday, with minimum relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent areawide with light 20 foot winds. Humidity will increase Wednesday through Friday, preceding likely wetting rainfall Friday night and most of the weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...SJM