369
FXUS64 KMEG 161614
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1114 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Hazardous heat will persist through the weekend, with little
  rainfall expected over the next seven days.

- An areawide Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM Saturday.

- A frontal boundary will bring increased rain chances to the
  Mid-South early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Hot conditions will continue underneath a 600 dam ridge with
afternoon highs reaching the upper 90s to low 100s. Starting
Thursday, the ridge will begin to slowly retrograde west as a
tropical wave approaches Florida. Despite the westerly movement,
near record to record highs are forecast through the weekend. The
Heat Advisory has been extended through 8 PM Saturday for the
entire forecast area. Given the prolonged nature of this heat,
vulnerable populations are at the greatest risk for developing
heat-related illness. Remember to regularly check on neighbors
and ensure ample hydration over the coming days.

Both the GFS and ECMWF depict a shortwave developing to the lee
of the Rockies on Sunday. This feature will send a weak frontal
boundary into the Mid-South late Monday into Tuesday. Rain
chances will increase, but we are still not anticipating a
widespread rainfall event. Temperatures will decrease a few
degrees by the middle of next week, but above-average highs are
favored through the end of the month.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR and light southerly winds will prevail over the next
30 hours, under a dominant upper level high pressure ridge.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Fuels will continue to dry amidst near record heat each day.
Relative humidity values will range from 30 to 40 percent each
afternoon with moderate to high recovery each night. Widespread
fire weather concerns will remain low to moderate over the next
week or so as 20 foot winds remain less than 10 mph. No fog
concerns for the foreseeable future.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB