403
FXUS64 KMEG 140453
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Dangerous heat will persist into at least the middle of next
  week. Little rainfall is expected during the next seven days
  after Monday.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect area-wide from 11 AM Monday until 7
  PM Tuesday. Expect heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees.

- Temperatures are forecast to moderate slightly by early next
  week, returning closer to seasonal normals with highs near 90
  degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Convection persisted well beyond peak heating on Sunday evening,
resulting in a few reports of isolated wind damage. The
environment wasn`t particularly impressive with regard to
instability, but mesoscale lift associated with outflow boundaries
and increasing low-level moisture were enough to overcome weak
MLCINH. Most of this activity has now dissipated, but a few
showers could persist for another hour or two with minimal
impacts.

The upper-level ridge is currently centered from east TX into the
northern Gulf with northwest flow aloft over the Mid-South. While
500 mb geopotential heights will begin to build over the Mid-South
on Monday, we`ll likely see another bout of diurnal convection,
mainly across north MS and east-central AR. The NBM again captured
this potential poorly and was adjusted to include 20% PoPs. Any
storms that develop should be short-lived, pulse cells with the
potential to produce gusty winds and brief heavy downpours. This
activity will likely linger into the early evening but is expected
to dissipate fairly quickly after sunset given the lack of forcing
aloft. This anomalous ridge will continue to build through
midweek, with the ridge anchoring over the Mid-South. Geopotential
heights at 500 mb are progged to exceed 598 dam by Tuesday
afternoon. Large-scale subsidence will warm mid-level
temperatures and help squash precipitation chances Tuesday into
the late week period.

Temperatures will flirt with record values at all four climate
sites much of the upcoming week, with highs pushing 100 F in some
areas. In addition, the moist air mass will support heat indices
at or above 105 F. A Heat Advisory is already in effect area-wide
both Monday and Tuesday. It will likely need to be extended into
Wednesday for portions of the Mid-South, but drier air advecting
into the region from the southeast is resulting in enough spatial
uncertainty to preclude an extension at this time. Regardless,
it`s going to remain quite hot through the remainder of the work
week.

The deterministic NBM has backed off on the weekend "cooling
trend" a bit, with forecast temperatures still well above normal
(highs in the mid/upper 80s) through Sunday. Ensemble guidance
remains uncertain regarding the evolution of the synoptic pattern
by this time frame. Most of the LREF members indicate a weak
trough developing over the Lower MS Valley by Sunday into early
next week. This results in a lot of uncertainty in the
probabilistic temperatures, with the inner quartile (25th-75th
percentile) maximum temperature at Memphis ranging from the mid
80s to the mid 90s. We`re still a few days out from having a good
handle on a potential pattern shift, but we`re going to be
dealing with the heat through at least the rest of this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Patchy fog is expected to develop again tonight. MKL did pick up
some rainfall this afternoon, making it the most likely location,
but there is a low probability of MVFR visibility at TUP as well.
Once the sun rises, VFR conditions will prevail area-wide, outside
of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm
probabilities are too low to include in the TAF at this time, but
if a forecast terminal is affected, it will most likely be TUP.
Winds will remain light from a general east and northeast
direction.

AMD NOT SKED was reinserted into the TUP TAF given the lack of
augmented observations overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Patchy fog is expected again tonight, especially across West
Tennessee where recent rainfall has increased soil moisture. Near-
record temperatures and dangerous heat indices are forecast
through midweek, with only a slight cooling trend expected during
the latter half of the work week. There is a slight chance for
thunderstorms Monday afternoon, mainly over east-central Arkansas
and north Mississippi, but generally dry weather is forecast
Tuesday through the end of the week. Twenty-foot winds are
expected to be light, and afternoon 10-hour fuels are expected to
remain above 10% through the period, with afternoon relative
humidity generally in the 30-40% range most of the week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-
     018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-
     115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ
AVIATION...MJ