Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
644 FXUS64 KMEG 281743 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1243 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 - Dry conditions and lingering drought will maintain elevated fire danger through at least Thursday. - Areawide rain chances return late Friday and continue through the Halloween weekend. - Additional rain chances are expected into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tuesday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Surface high pressure currently resides over the eastern CONUS with broad southwesterly flow aloft; a similar forecast to the past week. As such, the forecast remains dry and slightly above average with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Once again, today`s NBM data is running a bit too humid. So, we have lowered dewpoints slightly across the region into the middle to upper 40s. This results in minimum relative humidity values falling towards 30 percent with some areas dropping into the 20s. This will lead to a continuation of the elevated fire danger across the region. Not much will change in terms of the surface or upper pattern through this Friday. Expect dry weather and highs in the low 80s with elevated fire danger each afternoon. By late Friday and into Saturday, a belt of stronger upper winds associated with the Subtropical Jet Stream will overspread the southern CONUS. A trough will develop along the exit region of the jet, with a mild mass response across the Mid-South. Southerly flow will advect low-level humidity back into the region, driving higher precipitation chances into this weekend. However, the parent upper trough and associated features near the surface will be relatively weak, leading to QPF values generally below 1.00" with the best rainfall chances across west Tennessee and northern Mississippi. A few rumbles of thunder may occur Sunday, but thunder chances remain at or below 15%. As we move into next week, ridging will return Monday behind the leading wave that will bring rain showers back to the forecast this weekend. Another wave will then drop southeast into the Plains, eventually phasing with the belt of southwesterlies over the southern Rockies. Ensembles and deterministic guidance both depict the outcome of the phasing to be a cutoff low developing over the central CONUS to the west of the Mid-South. Further moisture advection is expected ahead of the low, leading to more precipitation chances into the middle of next week and the end of the forecast. But forecast uncertainty remains high, typical of cutoff systems, with changes in the amount of rainfall accumulation expected in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Broad surface high pressure will maintain VFR conds and light winds at all sites through the period. AC3 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the end of the week. A dry air mass remains over the region with afternoon relative humidity values falling to at or just below 30 percent. In addition, 10-hour fuel moisture content values sit around 10 percent. Therefore, daily Rangeland Fire Danger Statements are expected over the next 2 - 3 days. Fortunately 20-foot winds will remain at or below 10 mph, precluding higher fire danger. Wetting rains are forecast to return to the region this weekend with the most beneficial rains falling over northern Mississippi and west Tennessee. Additional rainfall chances are expected into the middle of next week where current rainfall accumulation forecasts call for 1.00" - 2.00" areawide between next Monday and Wednesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...AC3