876
FXUS64 KMEG 151739
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
  end of the work week. Severe weather chances will remain limited
  during the daytime hours each day with gusty winds and
  localized heavy rainfall as the main threats.

- Hot and humid conditions will develop late week, with heat
  indices above 100 degrees by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

With the exception of a couple showers, all is quiet across the
Mid-South for the first time in several days. The upper low
responsible for the last 3-4 days of active weather has finally
deamplified and pushed off to eastern Kentucky. However, we`re
looking at another incoming deep midlevel trough that will be
parked over west Tennessee through at least Tuesday. Combined with
a stationary front at the surface, this upper level divergence
will provide enough lift to encourage another prolonged active
pattern. This will mainly be in the form of diurnally enhanced
convection, very similar to what we`ve seen recently in this
summertime pattern.

The stationary front draped along I-40 will live up to its name
and barely budge through tomorrow (Monday) night. As pieces of
energy eject from the ArkLaTex and ride along the boundary, PoPs
will soar into the 80-90% range tomorrow afternoon. Moisture
advection on the warm side of this front will also aid in
extremely high PWATs; HREF mean PWATs for tomorrow are just under
2 inches, which is nearing the max end of climatology for mid
June. Early indicators of point soundings depict a long, skinny
CAPE profile for Monday afternoon. The combination of this, high
PWATs, and a stationary front with southwest flow will most likely
lead to a training storm situation with extremely high rain rates
tomorrow. In short: tomorrow afternoon/evening looks like a
potential flash flooding scenario.

Moving into the midweek time frame, a secondary cold front will
come down from the northern Plains on Wednesday and finally
disrupt the stagnant pattern. Try as it might, it does look like
this midweek front will also stall out right around the I-40
corridor on Thursday morning. Once again, we`re looking at
diurnally enhanced single-cell convection Thursday and Friday
afternoons due to the lack of synoptic support at the surface but
an open trough in the mid to upper levels. A noteworthy pattern
shift will occur this weekend as a 595 dam 500 mb ridge sets in
over the eastern CONUS. We`re looking at our first 105+ degree
heat index of the year as early as Saturday, but certainly by
Sunday.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Some impacts to aviation possible through the TAF period.
SCT to BKN cumulus is currently developing across the area.
Pockets of MVFR exist across north MS with VFR elsewhere that
should gradually rise to VFR later this afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorm development is expected around 21z with some MVFR
impacts possible at all terminals through tonight. Showers and
storms could linger longer than 09z, but confidence is too low to
mention in TAFs at this time. CIGs will fall back into MVFR
between 10-12z, once again gradually rising through the end of the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Light south/southwest winds and high humidity will persist into at
least the middle of the work week. Shower and thunderstorm
chances are in the 50-60% range each afternoon and evening in a
summertime convective pattern. Hot and humid conditions will
return late week with temperatures rising into the lower to middle
90s.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...JAB