Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
459 FXUS64 KMEG 272342 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 642 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 637 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 - A period of unseasonably dry and cool weather is ending, with a return to more humid conditions and scattered showers expected over the next 12-48 hours. - The heaviest rainfall is expected to stay south and east of Memphis, with areas over southeast Arkansas and northwest Mississippi potentially receiving up to 2 inches of rain by Friday afternoon. - Dry and benign weather is expected for the upcoming holiday weekend, with temperatures returning to near-normal values in the mid-80s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Several record lows were set across the Mid-South this morning as an unseasonably dry airmass settled over the region. Morning lows dipped into the lower 50s for most, with at least one CoOp report in the upper 40s. Current PWATs are in the 0.50 to 0.75 inch range, or well below the 25th percentile range of 1.2 to 1.4 inches for this time of year. The airmass will quickly modify over the next 12 to 18 hours as a shortwave digs southeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley and advects in higher moisture from the west. The latest forecast models are focusing on a dividing line for rainfall, stretching from Jonesboro, Arkansas, southeast through the Memphis metro area and toward Tupelo, MS. NBM 48 hour rainfall totals north and east of this line fall in the below one inch category, while areas south of the line could see as much as 2 inches of precipitation through Friday afternoon. NBM probabilities for greater than 2 inches of rainfall are around 30 percent for portions of southeast Arkansas and northwest Mississippi through this period The latest HREF guidance has become better aligned with the NBM wrt the axis of heaviest precipitation, with nearly the same geographic demarcation as previously mentioned. Although the HREF guidance only goes through 7AM Friday, the QPF footprint is in good agreement between the ensemble and blended model data. Given the high confidence in less precipitation for the Memphis metro, we have collaborated on and downgraded the Excessive Rainfall risk from Slight to Marginal for Thursday. Thunder probabilities will be quite low and confined to portions of SE Arkansas and NW Mississippi, where a pocket of slightly higher instability will reside. Northwest flow will remain over the Lower Mississippi Valley from the Holiday weekend through the extended forecast. With limited moisture in place through the column, mainly dry and benign weather is expected. Temperatures will trend back near normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the 60s. AC3 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Main TAF concern this issuance remains convection along a stationary boundary. The greatest instability axis is expected to stay southwest of all TAF sites tomorrow with showers prevailing north of the boundary. Brief drops to MVFR as showers move through can not be ruled out, however, confidence was not high enough to prevail in TAF. Otherwise, light south/southeast winds will continue over the next 30 hours or so. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Higher humidity and wetting rains will spread across much of the area Thursday into Friday. Dry weather will return this weekend and continue into early next week as broad high pressure remains over the region. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...AEH