640
FXUS64 KMEG 121714
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Mid-South
  with highs in the 90s. Some locations may approach the low 100s
  by this weekend into early next week.

- Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect through
  Friday across the Mid-South and will likely be extended over the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The dog days of summer are in full swing across the Mid-South.
Upper riding will continue to build in from the Southern Plains
and become centered over the Mid-South by Thursday, remaining
relatively stationary through the weekend. This will result in
highs in the 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This will
produce heat index readings above 105F across the region with
values of 110F or greater across the Delta through the end of the
week. Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect for
the entire Mid-South through 8 pm Friday and will likely be
continued through the weekend into next week.

Shortwaves moving through the northwest flow in place to the
northeast of the Mid-South are triggering storms across the Mid
Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. An outflow boundary
associated with that convection could reach the Mid-South later
today and this evening and trigger a few storms given the amount
of instability across the region. There is a Marginal Risk (risk
1 of 5) across portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee
River and along the KY/TN border. The main threat from these
storms would be damaging winds. Cannot rule out a few diurnal
storms elsewhere this afternoon as some of the CAMs are showing
development.

As surface winds turn more SW/W this weekend there is a slight
lowering of the surface dewpoints into the upper 60s to lower 70s
range. However, this really will not provide much relief since
the slightly lower dewpoints will allow surface temperatures to
climb a little higher with some lower 100s likely this weekend
into early next week. Any way you slice it, the weather will be
very hot so plan for it and take precautions like spending as
much time in the AC as possible. If you have to work outside,
stay hydrated and take frequent breaks.

The ridge weakens very slightly by Tuesday and Wednesday as a
weak cold front tries to  approach from the Ohio Valley. This
feature may knock temperatures down slightly over parts of West
Tennessee and might kick off some storms but given the strength
of the ridge confidence in a break in the heat is low. Global
models show the ridge quickly restrengthening after the middle of
next week with the heatwave continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

There is high confidence that VFR conditions will persist at JBR,
MKL and TUP through the period due to a strong ridge over the
deep South.  At MKL, confidence is slightly lower due to an
ongoing complex of thunderstorms over Illinois and Indiana.  This
convection is currently weakening, but outflow from this complex
may move into west Tennessee overnight, increasing the chance of
thunderstorms as well as midlevel clouds. Confidence still
remains low for any sub-VFR conditions. Prevailing winds will
remain southwesterly through the period with occasional gusts
this afternoon, weakening slightly nocturnally.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A typical, summer-time pattern will continue over the next 7 days
with no major fire danger concerns. While conditions will remain
dry with little to no meaningful precipitation chances, minimum
relative humidity will be above 40 percent with 20 foot winds at
or below 10 mph through Friday.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ007-010-011-
     020.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ001>006-008-009-
     012>017-021>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JDS