Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
952 FXUS64 KMEG 190415 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1015 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1014 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 - Dry and mild weather is expected on Wednesday with highs from the upper 60s along the Kentucky and Missouri borders to around 80 across parts of north Mississippi. - Wet and unsettled weather will return for Thursday and Friday with the potential for 1 to 2 inches of total rainfall through Friday night. - Weekend looks mostly dry and a little cooler, though still above normal. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1014 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 A weak cold front has dropped into northern parts of the Mid-South this evening. A severe storm produced large hail earlier this evening near the KY border. Storms have generally been on a weakening trend over the last 90 mins as the airmass gradually stabilizes. There is enough instability to support some strong storms with small hail and gusty winds over the next couple of hours. Storms will gradually sag south and weaken and eventually push east of the area well after midnight. The cold front will stall across the area on Wednesday as broad upper ridging strengthens over the region in advance of the system ejecting from the SW US. This will result in a dry and mild day with a good deal of clouds. Temps will be cooler north of the boundary with highs in the upper 60s along the KY/MO borders. Near record highs are likely south of the boundary, especially across north MS. Moist, SW flow aloft will start to increase later Wednesday and continue into Thursday as a system enters the Southern Plains. Overrunning will develop along the stalled frontal boundary resulting in numerous showers and thunderstorms spreading ENE into the Mid-South. Best chances of rain through Thursday evening will be along and north of the boundary, or roughly north of the TN/MS state line. A cold front will push into the region on Friday and Friday night with higher rain chances spreading over the entire Mid-South. Severe chances look pretty meager at this point. The upper support is rapidly weakening as it pushes into the region and instability fields are unimpressive. The front will push east of the region Friday night. Rainfall amounts will be lucky to reach one inch south of the TN/MS line. Higher amounts, up to perhaps 2 inches, will be confined to areas north of I-40. Models continue to favor a break in activity this weekend with the next system of the SW US/northern Mexico moving slowly and some upper ridging building toward the Mid-South. Saturday will probably be cloudy and damp to start. Sunday is looking decent as the upper ridging arrives. The system over the SW US will probably push into the region later Monday into Tuesday with more rain chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1014 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Showers with a few pops of thunder will move across MKL/MEM over the next few hours, before exiting terminals. There is still a pretty decent signal for IFR conditions overnight and into the morning hours as a front moves through. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Predominantly light southwest winds will shift north/northeast by the end of the TAF period. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1014 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 No fire weather concerns are anticipated over the next seven days. A wet and unsettled pattern will prevail over the Mid-South during the end of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...AEH