Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
663 FXUS64 KMEG 020400 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1100 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South, mainly east of the Mississippi River, from Tuesday through Thursday morning. - Widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated, though any accumulation will be beneficial given ongoing drought conditions. - A drier and significantly cooler airmass with comfortable temperatures will settle into the region by Saturday evening, lasting into early next week && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A quiet night is in store for the Mid-South under light winds and mid to high level clouds filtering into the region. After a quiet night, Tuesday will bring the first chance of rain showers mainly east of the Mississippi River. An inverted trough will impinge from the east and muster up just enough moisture to support shower development. Torrential rainfall or large accumulations of rain are not expected due to several days of high pressure and an abundance of dry air. PW values are near the climatological norm (1-1.5") combined with widespread Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions, any accumulation amount is welcomed, but this certainly will not be a drought buster. Very weak upper level support keeps confidence on the lower side for thunderstorm development. A rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out, but widely light stratiform rain is expected. The aforementioned inverted trough may interact with any lingering outflow boundaries potentially leading to quick upscale growth. However, widespread strong to severe storms are unlikely. The trough will slowly rotate through the eastern side of the CWA keeping lingering rain chances in the forecast through Thursday morning. Peak PoPs (40-60%) are expected tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday morning, with coverage becoming more isolated and chances lowering to 20-40% thereafter. Despite a rise in PoPs, probabilities of half an inch of rain are only 30-60% stretching in a line from Jackson, TN to Oxford, MS and eastward. A dry, weak cold front will finally rotate that inverted trough out of the area and squash any lingering rain chances for the remainder of the work week. A reinforcing front will follow shortly behind it with higher chances of receiving rainfall Friday night into Saturday morning. Southerly flow will briefly return ahead of this front, which will increase moisture and raise probabilities of thunder. This front will cross quickly and we will settle into a cooler and drier regime by Saturday evening. These temperatures will be a few degrees below normal for early September with 50 degree dewpoints for a comfortable feel. We look to remain dry through early next week, but beyond then, model spread is large. The CPC monthly outlook for September has the Mid-South in equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and precipitation. Stay tuned for the next chance of beneficial rainfall. DNM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 No significant changes other than introducing VCSH a bit earlier. Mainly just another wind forecast over the next 24-30 hours. However, a few showers may approach MEM tomorrow evening. Due to a dry airmass it is doubtful if any rain will actually reach the ground. Nevertheless included VCSH at MEM to account for any overperforming showers. A weak surface low and an inverted trough over the region will result in highly variable winds, although they should remain light enough to be inconsequential. Any CIGS should remain at or above 5000 ft. AMD NOT SKED at TUP for missing METAR. && && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Slightly higher RH`s and increased wetting rain conditions should curb fire danger concerns through at least Thursday. Moisture pull ahead of a cold front will occur on Friday with another shot of wetting rain to follow. A cool and dry airmass could return elevated fire danger this weekend into early next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...JDS