384
FXUS64 KMEG 191723
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Very hot temperatures and mainly dry weather is expected to
  continue this weekend with afternoon temperatures reaching the
  upper 90s to around 100 degrees.

- A weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers and
  thunderstorms early next week. Widespread significant rainfall
  is not expected.

- A slight cooling trend is expected by Wednesday, bringing
  temperatures down from near-record values to above-normal for
  late September.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A 594 dm upper-level ridge axis is centered over portions of the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. This upper-level
ridge continues to bring a continuation of very hot temperatures
and persistent dry weather to the Mid-South. Late morning
temperatures range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with surface
dewpoints in the 60s.

The aforementioned upper-level ridge will continue to bring very
hot temperatures and dry weather to the area through the
remainder of the weekend. Heat index values over the past couple
of days have struggled to reach 105 degrees as drier air has
mixed down to the surface with afternoon temperatures rising into
the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Confidence remains low for
sites reaching Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon.
Consequently, the current Heat Advisory may be cancelled early
rather than extending into Sunday if current short-term trends
persist.

Mid to long range model ensemble and deterministic solutions
indicate the upper-level ridge will weaken slightly by early next
week. Shower and thunderstorm chances are anticipated to return
to some locations Monday night into Tuesday as a weak cold front
drops into the region. This front is not expected to bring any
appreciable rainfall with LREF probabilities of rainfall greater
than one-tenth of an inch remaining at or below 10 percent.
Temperatures behind this front are still anticipated to remain
above normal with LREF/NBM probabilities of temperatures
90 degrees or warmer dropping down to 30 percent for mid to late
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Persistent high pressure will keep VFR conditions at all
terminals through the period with mainly afternoon cumulus
development. Expect light winds throughout the day, dropping to
near calm overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A strong upper level ridge centered over the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to bring hot and mainly
dry weather through the weekend. 20 foot winds are expected to
remain light under 10 kts while minimum relative humidity values
this afternoon and Sunday will drop to around 30 percent
mitigating critical fire weather conditions. Fog potential
remains low across the region, restricted mainly to brief, patchy
morning fog along low-lying river basins.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JAB