153
FXUS64 KMEG 290519
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1219 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Seasonal temperatures and reduced humidity arrive by Wednesday
  for most of the region. However, portions of the Mississippi
  River Delta are still under a Heat Advisory through 8 PM
  Wednesday until relief arrives Thursday.

- Higher rain chances return to the Mid-South late Friday and
  linger into Saturday.

- Cooler temperatures will continue behind a cold front late this
  weekend that are expected to last into early next week with
  temperatures remaining in the 80s and low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Hot temperatures continue throughout the Mid-South with areawide
temperatures still in the upper 80s and low 90s as of the time of
writing. Temperatures will cool through the night, but limited
relief is expected, especially across the Mississippi River Delta
in Arkansas and Mississippi. A wave, currently entering northern
Arkansas, will move southeastward through the Mid-South tonight
and tomorrow, bringing scattered showers. Forecast soundings show
ample instability (3000+ MUCAPE) for thunderstorms, but an
overnight inversion near the surface is likely to keep the
coverage of any convection isolated. However, through the day
Wednesday, enough insolation may erode this inhibition and allow
for thunderstorms to develop into the afternoon, but confidence
in the placement and coverage of thunderstorms is still low. In
terms of temperature, enough cloud cover should be present to
keep afternoon heat indices below 105 F, aside from the
aforementioned areas in the Mississippi River Delta where a new
Heat Advisory has been hoisted through 8 PM CDT Wednesday
evening. There is the possibility that thunderstorms could
develop in this area and cut the dangerous heat before the
expiration of the Heat Advisory, which will be monitored through
the next 24 hours.

Behind the weak wave Wednesday, a cold front will help reinforce
cooler temperatures throughout the Mid-South. The broad
northwesterly upper flow that has allowed for this pattern shift
will continue, keeping the cooler temperatures throughout the
region into at least this weekend. Medium range models continue
to show a lee surface cyclone tracking along the baroclinic zone
generated by the cold front late this week, eventually reaching
the Middle Mississippi River Valley by late Friday and will offer
our next chance of rainfall.

Looking closer into the details of the system Friday and early
Saturday, one thing is readily apparent: PWATs will be very high.
Multiple models (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/NBM) have PWATs approaching, if
not exceeding, 2.2" as the surface wave approaches. At the same
time, this suite of guidance also shows elevated westerlies
between 925 and 850 mb, which would act to guide this moisture
into and over the cooler air mass laid out by the cold front
Wednesday. This would typically lead to a signal for a zone of
high rainfall accumulation, but differences in the mesoscale
evolution between these models precludes higher confidence in
heavy rainfall. The largest detractor from heavy rain is the
uncertainty in instability, which may be low due to both
relatively dry air near the surface and weak mid-level lapse
rates. Regardless, late July and early August have a propensity
to produce instability from a lot less than what is present in
the guidance and trends may need to be monitored for heavy
rainfall potential Friday and into Saturday.

The surface cyclone will eventually move east of the region late
Saturday and into Sunday. Additional convection is possible along
another cold front as it moves south Saturday night, but severe
weather and heavy rainfall concerns remain limited due to
continued uncertainty in the thermodynamic profiles across the
region. Behind the front, temperatures are expected to remain in
the 80s Sunday and flirt with 90 into early next week. The upper
troughing will begin to slowly erode through the end of the
period and beyond, potentially marking the return of warmer
weather. However, current guidance continues to show reasonably
low dewpoints at or below 70, which should keep the forecast dry
and less unbearable compared to this last heat wave.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. A cold
front will move through the region into early Wednesday,
resulting in a few rain showers, especially at JBR and MEM.
Sufficient elevated instability may support the development of a
thunderstorm or two but confidence in coverage and occurrence
remains too low to mention in this TAF set. PROB30 groups will be
maintained at JBR and MEM where rain chances will be slightly
higher with VCSH at MKL and TUP. Winds will veer N/NE behind the
front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH
values remain above 40% and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ049-058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010>012-020-
     021.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC