531
FXUS64 KMEG 170713
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
213 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
  end of the work week. Severe weather chances will remain limited
  mainly during the daytime hours each day with gusty winds and
  localized heavy rainfall as the main threats.

- Hot and humid conditions will develop late week, with heat
  indices above 100 degrees by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Latest surface analysis places the stationary front still draped
across the Ozarks into eastern Kentucky. As a result, we have
basically a persistence forecast today as a shortwave trough
extends southward into the ArkLaMiss region and will encourage
another wave of convection this afternoon. Expect warm
temperatures, diurnally enhanced convection, and no organized
severe weather threat but a potential for localized gusty winds
and heavy rainfall with any storms that develop.

Tomorrow`s forecast gets a bit more interesting as the synoptic
setup becomes more robust than it has in almost a week. A cold
front will swing down from the northern Plains in the late
afternoon and place a line of pre-frontal convection at our CWA`s
doorstep just before 00Z Thursday (7PM Wed). The latest HREF run
ends just outside the FROPA window tomorrow evening, so hi res
data isn`t available yet. However, digging into the LREF parameter
space, CAPE is projected to start out around 2500 J/kg when the
pre-frontal convection arrives. This is more than enough fuel to
keep storms going overnight into Thursday, even with a quick decay
after the sun goes down. Will note that we are on the lower edge
of the shear gradient; bulk shear greatly increases farther north
and east into the OH River Valley. That being said, 25-30 kts of
bulk shear is still plenty to hold the line of storms together
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

As far as individual threats go, damaging winds will certainly be
the primary threat. The convective mode for tomorrow evening via
the CAMs is textbook pre-frontal QLCS. Midlevel lapse rates on the
order of 7 degC/km will support hail up to ping pong ball sized.
The tornado threat looks pretty limited (less than 2% probs) this
far south, but cannot rule out a quick spinup embedded in the
line of storms at its peak intensity Wednesday evening. PWATs
around 2 inches are near max climatology for mid June, but the
progressive nature of the front and its storm motion will
hopefully mitigate widespread flooding concerns. Rainfall rates
will be impressively efficient, so any flooding would likely be
localized due to heavy downpours. Overall, the threats are
maximized north of I-40 since that is where the parameter space is
most favorable.

A significant pattern shift will occur this weekend as the first
594+ dam midlevel ridge of the summer slides over the east CONUS
by Friday. This ridge will further amplify into the weekend,
trapping the Mid-South under a dome of hot and humid conditions.
Heat indices will almost certainly be in triple digit territory
for the MS Delta by Friday afternoon. Saturday looks like the
hottest day and will most likely warrant heat headlines for the
majority of the area. High pressure looks to dominate the eastern
half of the CONUS at least through Monday.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have ended for most of the night at all
terminals, but may return around sunrise. Confidence is higher
that IFR cigs will overspread the region tonight and continue
through at least mid-morning. Hopefully this will help to limit
redevelopment of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Nevertheless, I
did maintain VCTS and VCSH through the afternoon hours. Storms
should be most numerous near MKL and MUM and least numerous near
JBR. Overall, storms should be less numerous than today. Winds
will remain west to SE 6- 10kts. VFR conditions should return to
the area by late tomorrow afternoon or early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Light south/southwest winds and high humidity will persist through
tomorrow afternoon. A cold front will move through tomorrow
evening, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms overnight
into Thursday. Hot and humid conditions will return Friday through
the weekend with temperatures rising into the lower to middle
90s.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...JDS