256
FXUS64 KMEG 302351
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
551 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 538 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Below-normal temperatures will persist over the next seven days.

- A Winter Weather Advisory will go into effect Monday evening
  for areas north of I-40, with expected minor impacts to roadways
  and bridges.

- Dry conditions resume by midweek before another round of
  precipitation occurs by the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 1219 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The Mid-South sits under mostly clear skies this afternoon with a
lingering cloud deck situated over northern Mississippi. Afternoon
highs will vary from north to south today, with areas near Kentucky
remaining in the upper 30s. Further south, temperatures will
approach 50 degrees.

A complex forecast emerges on Monday as a Gulf low tracks over
southern Mississippi and Alabama. This system will advect elevated
moisture into the Mid-South, with Precipitable Water values
approaching the 90th percentile by the afternoon hours. A few
models depict moisture arriving earlier, which suggests a brief
window of a wintry mix Monday morning. However, probabilities for
this are low (<15%). Instead, expect freezing precipitation
chances to increase Monday evening as temperatures fall below 32
degrees. One major change from yesterday`s forecast is the presence
of a weaker warm nose on the latest forecast soundings. A few
flakes may be able to overcome this feature, resulting in greater
potential for snow fall. However, the latest thinking is that the
predominant winter precipitation mode will be freezing rain. Snow
and ice accumulations will be minimal, but slick roadways and
bridges are anticipated for areas north of I- 40. A Winter Weather
Advisory will go into effect at 6PM Monday for this region.

Below normal temperatures will persist through the end of the
work week. On Thursday, a long wave trough will eject out of the
Rockies and trek across Kansas. Ahead of this system, moisture
will once again increase for the Mid-South. Precipitation chances
will increase on Friday with some guidance depicting yet another
wintry mix occurring north of I-40. Large model spread and run-
to-run inconsistencies keep confidence in any precipitation low
(<20%). We will continue to monitor this system over the coming
days.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

VFR conditions will prevail ahead of a low pressure system late
tomorrow morning. MVFR conditions will then begin to slowly creep
in as precipitation also begins to move in. Biggest question this
issuance is what precipitation type will fall tomorrow, especially
heading into the late afternoon/evening hours. -RA look to prevail
through much of the afternoon, but confidence was only high
enough for PROB30s as far as the wintry precipitation regime goes.
Northeast winds will generally be 10 kts and last through the TAF
period.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1219 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

No fire weather concerns are expected through the foreseeable
future as minRH values stay above 40% and 20ft winds remain
light.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for
     ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for
     MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for
     TNZ001>004-019>022-048>052-054-055.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...AEH