Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
837 FXUS64 KMEG 101110 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 510 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 501 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 - A hard freeze (temperatures below 28 degrees) will impact the Mid- South Monday and Tuesday mornings with blustery conditions making it feel even colder. - Temperatures will return to near normal by mid-week with continued dry conditions. - Rain chances return this weekend with a warmup to the mid 70s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1041 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 A strong cold front has officially cleared the Mid-South this evening. A very cold and dry airmass originating from the Hudson Bay is racing into the region aided by blustery north winds. This CAA aided by radiational cooling overnight will lead to our coldest temperatures of the season so far by sunrise Monday. Minimum temperatures are still looking to sit in the low to mid 20s areawide Monday and Tuesday mornings with wind chills in the teens. Since it is outside of the locally defined growing season (ended), frost/freeze headlines will not be issued this week. However, this will be an impactful hard freeze that poses a hazard to anyone without access to proper heating. Remember to protect the four Ps from cold weather: people, pipes, pets, and plants. After a chilly start to the week, progressive upper level flow will quickly usher the CP airmass off to the Atlantic Coast. The pattern becomes deamplified and nearly zonal by Wednesday, which will help temperatures return to normal. There`s very little moisture to speak of for most of the week, so conditions will remain dry as things warm back up to the 60s and 70s. Forecast surface analyses depict a very large warm front lifting north across the central CONUS on Friday, which kicks off a pretty drastic warmup for the Mid-South. Temperatures make a quick swing back to above normal on Friday and continue in the mid 70s through Saturday with this transition to southerly flow. Moving into the weekend, a Colorado Low will eject from the Rockies on Saturday and make gradual eastward progress as it occludes on itself. By Saturday night, its cold front will be positioned over the ArkLaTex and encourage the return of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. These 30-40% PoPs continue into Sunday and Monday as the cold front continues to approach the Mid- South. As of right now, given the occluded surface low`s placement, it`s looking fairly benign in terms of severe weather potential. Details will become clearer in the coming days but prepare for a wetter pattern change this weekend regardless. CAD && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 VFR, just a wind forecast over the next 24-30 hours or longer. Northwest winds will strengthen again shortly after sunrise with gusts generally 18-22kts through the early afternoon hours. As a surface low pulls away from the Midsouth and high pressure builds along the Gulf Coast, winds will weaken tonight into early tomorrow as they shift from the west then southwest. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1041 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Dry and cold air is filtering into the Mid-South behind a cold front. Monday and Tuesday afternoons look the driest with MinRHs falling below 40% both days. In combination with gusty northwest winds, minor fire danger will be present through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise mid week as southerly flow returns, but dry conditions will continue. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...JDS