122
FXUS64 KMEG 090032
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
732 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 731 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
  persist through Tuesday.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for areas near the Tennessee River
  late tonight and Tuesday.

- Significant heat and humidity will build across the Mid-South
  through mid-week.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the Mid-South on
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A very humid air mass is in place across the Mid-South with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and heat index values well into
the 90s. An upper trough extends along the MS River Valley while
outflow boundaries from the decaying MCS over NW AR approach from
the west. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon into tonight. MLCAPEs of around 2000 J/kg could
support a strong to severe storm with some gusty winds, though
the shear is quite weak, and as a result, we do not expect
anything too organized. The bigger concern is locally heavy
rainfall. PWs around 2 inches, which is at or above the 99.5th
percentile, will support intense rainfall rates and localized
flash flooding.

By Tuesday, the upper trough will be slowly exiting the region,
and upper ridging will be building across the Lower MS Valley.
However, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
linger across the TN River Valley and parts of West TN. Some hi-
res models show an MCS developing across SE MO and diving south
into the eastern parts of the Mid-South. PWs in those locations
will continue to be around 2 inches. Latest hi-res models point
toward the TN River Valley and northeast parts of West TN as
being the main places to watch. The 12z HREF is showing 1 to
2.5 inches in this area, but the LPMM shows the potential for
isolated 4+ inches. We will issue a targeted Flood Watch for the
northeast parts of West TN and along the TN River.

Heat will really start to build tomorrow with highs in the lower
to mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid and upper 70s.  A Heat
Advisory will be in effect for Tuesday for counties along and
west of the MS River. The first heat wave of the year is always
especially dangerous simply because we are not used to it. Drink
plenty of fluids, wear light colored clothing, and stay in the AC
when possible.

Upper ridging will prevail Wednesday and Thursday with hot and
humid conditions. Heat headlines may need to be issued during
this period. An upper trough moving through the Great Lakes
during the late week will push a cold front into the area that
may stall over the Mid-South this weekend. This will result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms and perhaps some relief from
the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A low confidence aviation forecast is unfolding this evening.
Given the stout downward trend in convective coverage overnight,
opted to remove TSRA mention altogether at MEM. There are a few
showers developing along the outflow of the MCV currently
rotating in western KY, so will need to keep an eye on that for
the next few hours for any impacts. Otherwise, kept very brief
mention of TSRA for JBR and MKL early Tuesday morning, mainly for
consistency with the forecast and accounting for the spread
amongst CAMs. There will also most likely be another wave of
convection with the final push along the shortwave over Middle TN
Tuesday afternoon, which will most likely only impact MKL around
21Z Tuesday. Barring any deteriorating conditions under
individual storms, VFR conditions and south/southwest winds 5-
10 kts are expected to prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the forecast
period. Widespread wetting rain is expected across much of the
area through Monday, further mitigating fire risk. Even as high
heat returns mid-week, elevated humidity levels will prevent
significant fire weather concerns.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-007-010-
     011.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>003-019-
     020-048>052-088-089.

     Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for
     TNZ003-004-021-022-054-055.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CAD