Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
077 FXUS64 KMEG 011215 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 615 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 613 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 - Showers will continue this morning, before decreasing in converage this afternoon. - After a brief break from the rain on Monday, showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast for the second half of Tuesday into Wednesday. Total rainfall amounts will generally be between 1 to 2 inches. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A dreary Halloween is ongoing across the Mid-South with showers continuing to push across the area. While there have been a few pockets of heavier rainfall, instability has remained lacking with no lightning activity on the latest GLM products. Shower activity will continue through the overnight period and into Sunday, with coverage likely not decreasing by much until the afternoon to evening. A few CAMs want to bring some elevated instability up the MS River early Sunday morning, so a rumble or two of thunder cannot necessarily be ruled out mainly across north MS. This instability, if it materializes at all, will be shunted by midday with showers remaining. With the persistent cloud coverage and showers, expect high temperatures to span the 60s with some locations reaching the 70s across eastern AR and northwest MS. By Monday, an upper-level trough will continue to develop across the Rockies with surface, southerly flow across the Mid-South. While conditions are expected to dry out, we will get ample WAA to the area with dew points rising back into the upper 60s. High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal for the beginning of November, generally in the low to mid 70s. Into Tuesday, eyes will be to the west as the aforementioned trough moves out of the Rockies and deepens through the Plains. This system will bring our next chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Timing of this system has slowed down a bit for our area, with the bulk of the precipitation arriving late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Overall, the severe weather set-up for our area does appear to be lacking with this system as instability will likely remain limited. Latest LREF probabilities of favorable CAPE and shear levels are less than 10%, with the more favorable conditions remaining to our west and south. We are still just on the outside of beginning to get some CAMs into range, so we will see what those bring to the forecast. Overall, this looks to be a rainfall event for the Mid-South at this point with much of the area likely receiving 1 to 2" of rainfall. Latest NBM guidance does show some swaths of about a 30 to 40% chance of exceeding 2" with the midweek system, although the location will likely vary over the coming days. Additionally, NAEFS does have PWAT values over the 90th percentile Tuesday into Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, the ultimate progression of the upper-level trough and positioning of the parent low will come into play with how quickly precipitation moves out. LREF guidance does have some variability with our temperatures as a result, with one cluster favoring a steady cool down back to normal versus another cluster portraying a sharper cool down by Thursday. Nonetheless, guidance does favor dry conditions returning to the Mid-South with near- normal temperatures as we head into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 A compact upper low was evident on GOES water vapor imagery just south of MEM, lifting slowly east. IFR/LIFR CIGs were noted in the wake of this system over central AR. This will likely be the story for Midsouth terminals through the morning. Improvement to MVFR in the late afternoon will likely be short- lived, as the bulk of short range guidance shows a signal for patchy drizzle or light showers in the evening. This would likely reinforce the moist boundary layer inversion. An NBM/LAMP guidance blend was followed for CIGs late tonight and post- sunrise Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minimum relative humidity values will remain well above 40% through the upcoming week. Showers will continue through the day on Sunday, with additional chances by the middle of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...PWB