175
FXUS64 KMEG 011204 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
604 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 600 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

- A Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect Monday evening
  through early Tuesday morning for areas north of I-40.

- Total snow and sleet accumulations will likely remain less than
  one inch with ice accumulations less than one tenth of an inch
  in the Winter Weather Advisory area. This could cause minor
  impacts to roadways and bridges.

- Dry conditions will resume by Tuesday afternoon, with
  precipitation chances returning by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1003 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A rather chilly day has given way to a chilly overnight period,
with temperatures already falling into the upper 20s for some
locations and falling through the 30s elsewhere. The overnight
period will remain dry across the area, with moisture beginning
to funnel northeastward in the morning to near midday. While
temperatures will remain below freezing at the surface through
much of the morning, think things will not saturate entirely
until around midday. To put things plainly for mid-morning Monday
through early Tuesday morning, the forecast is messy. Moisture
will spread northeast across the Mid-South through the day on
Monday, with much of the area likely seeing rain. The one
exception to this would be over northeast Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel, where the temperature profile could be cold
enough right off the bat for there to be a mixed bag of wintry
precipitation by midday and beyond. There is considerable
uncertainty with this, so it will be interesting to see how warm
those locations get before the precipitation arrives.

For areas mainly across northwest Tennessee, any changeover to
wintry conditions will likely hold off until the evening to
overnight hours. During this timeframe, there will be a battle of
how quickly our surface temperatures drop, how quickly
temperatures between 700mb and 850mb will drop, and how long the
moisture will stick around for. Greatest confidence for any
winter weather related impacts would generally be for locations
across northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and far
northwest Tennessee. The caveat with this is that these locations
also have the highest uncertainty with predominant precipitation
type, making this a complex forecast. As things stand right now,
the two leading scenarios would be either 1) a short-lived and
shallower warm nose that would favor a snow/sleet scenario or 2)
a more prolonged and expansive warm nose that would lead to a
freezing rain/sleet scenario. With scenario one, this could lead
to total snowfall amounts being closer to the higher end range of
things, with some locations receiving up to an inch of snow.
However, with scenario two, our snowfall amounts would be
severely cut and would likely fall closer to the low-end range
with ice accumulation jumping up closer to a tenth of an inch.
Both scenarios would have impacts to bridges and overpasses, with
the second / ice scenario likely creating more minor impacts.
Will note that models have been favoring scenario two in most
cases, but this is far from a quick switch in precipitation mode
and there will likely be periods where all precipitation types
occur in this 12 hour window. All in all, locations south of I-
40 will likely experience a mostly rain forecast with little to
no impacts while locations generally north of I-40 in the Winter
Weather Advisory have around a 30% chance of minor impacts by
Tuesday morning. Latest high res guidance continues to have the
precipitation move out rather quickly early Tuesday morning
(before 4 to 5 AM early), which would limit any potential
accumulation and/or impacts. Plan to leave the Winter Weather
Advisory as is for now, but will keep an eye on trends as the
morning progresses to see if the area will need to be expanded
further.

Any lingering precipitation is expected to move out quickly on
Tuesday, with temperatures remaining on the colder side of things
with highs likely remaining in the 30s for most of the area. If
there were to be any leftover moisture on surfaces through the
day Tuesday, they will likely refreeze overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday, so this will be something to keep an eye on after the
event itself. After a bitter start in the low to mid 20s on
Wednesday, temperatures will rebound across the area with high
temperatures returning to the 40s to low 50s. This should allow
any lingering moisture to dry out across the area. By Thursday
into the end of the work week, another system will progress
through the area. Precipitation chances remain mainly over north
Mississippi on Thursday (20-30% chance), with PoPs expanding
across the Mid-South into Friday (50-70% chance). Temperatures
will likely be near to below freezing again Friday morning, so
yet another discussion on wintry weather may need to be had.
Given the uncertainty, will mention the possibility for now but
this will be something to watch in the coming forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Strong lift along an elevated frontal surface will commence this
morning, but will occur in a dry layer below FL070. HREF soundings
depict this layer rapidly saturating by 20-21Z, followed immediately
by categorical -RA at MEM, MKL and TUP. A PL/SN mix could occur a
bit earlier at JBR.

The 12Z TAFs closely follow the 06Z HRRR / 09Z RAP with respect
to P-type at MEM and MKL. These soundings depict a shallow above-
freezing layer near the ground that would limit FZRA chances but
not preclude PL mixed with RA during the late evening MEM inbound
push. HREF member consensus with respect to surface temperatures
is fairly tight. But if this consensus fails and the midday
temperature bump fails to materialize, -FZRA will be a concern at
MEM and MKL headed into this evening.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1003 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with
measurable rainfall returning to the area Monday. While the next
chance of precipitation after this likely will not arrive until
Friday, minRH values are expected to remain above 40% with light
20kft winds.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Tuesday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>052-054-055.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB