Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
188 FXUS64 KMEG 292343 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 643 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 - A warming trend continues this weekend with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s by Sunday. - Heat headlines will likely return by the middle of next week as humidity increases. - There is a low chance of isolated showers by the end of next week. Otherwise, a prolonged dry spell is forecast across the Mid-South. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Surface high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic continues to feed dry air into the Mid-South. As a result, despite a strengthening upper ridge and temperatures rising into the lower to mid 90s, at least the humidity is in check today with dewpoints in the 60s. Humidity will start to return tomorrow as the surface high pushes east and southerly flow develops. The higher dewpoints will be most apparent along the Tennessee River and Alabama/Mississippi border on Sunday, while temperatures climb to the mid and upper 90s due to the strengthening upper ridge. The upper ridge will be parked over the region for all of next week. As humidity gradually increases due to persistent southerly flow, heat index values are likely to reach advisory levels (105 or greater). There is a low chance this could happen as early as Monday over parts of the area, though it is more likely toward midweek. The ridge will stifle precipitation chances for the most part. A weak disturbance moving westward across the Deep South may weaken the ridge a bit by the end of next week, resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms. We are not seeing any significant systems or rainfall through next weekend, with above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall continuing for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light and variable winds overnight will persist through the early morning on Sunday. Southerly winds around 7-10 kts will develop by 15Z. TAB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will fall to 30 to 35 percent over portions of the Mid-South through Sunday as a dry airmass continues across the region. 20-foot winds are expected to remain less than 10 mph through the weekend, but fuels will continue to dry. A prolonged dry period with no appreciable rainfall may result in elevated fire weather danger heading into next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...TAB