281
FXUS64 KMEG 021729
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly east of
  the Mississippi River through Thursday.

- A cooler airmass with comfortable temperatures will settle into
  the region by Saturday, lasting into early next week. High
  temperatures will likely be in the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A weak, stationary front remains parked over the Mid-South, with
a drier airmass to the northwest and more moisture to the
southeast. We have continued to see some showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly across northeast MS and the TN River so far
today, with this trend expected to continue into the evening
hours. Despite the lingering showers, total QPF amounts remain on
the lower side, with totals likely remaining less than half an
inch for those who do see rain. This boundary will remain over the
area until Thursday, before finally pushing through the area into
the weekend. As such, isolated PoPs will linger Wednesday and
Thursday, with drier conditions on Friday. As for our
temperatures, high temperatures will remain at to just below
normal through Thursday, with highs generally in the upper 80s to
around 90. By Friday, a quick rebound in southerly flow will allow
temperatures to jump back above normal into the mid 90s, but dew
point temperatures will remain in the 60s thus curbing any heat
headline concerns. Reinforcing frontal boundary will pass through
overnight Friday, knocking temperatures back below normal to the
on Saturday.

By Sunday and into next week, spread in ensemble guidance really
begins to grow with the eventual forecast pattern. Most guidance
suggests an upper-level trough remaining to the northeast of the
Mid-South, but guidance continues to struggle with the eventual
placement and strength of this trough as well as a potential low
pressure system moving off the Rocky Mountains. These differences
will play a role in the rain chances into next week, but most
guidance does suggest below-normal temperatures will continue
despite the differences. Highs will likely span the 80s into next
week, but have very little confidence in PoPs beyond Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Rinse and repeat of yesterday`s forecast. Isolated SHRA/TS around
the area, but too sparse in coverage to maintain any prevailing
precip groups. VFR conditions continue with a midlevel Cu field
and a high cirrus deck for the next 24 hours. Best chance of
precip for MEM looks to be tomorrow after 18Z. Winds will
oscillate between SW/S for the rest of the day before going light
overnight. Should pick back up from the SW tomorrow morning.

CAD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Some fire danger concerns will continue for the foreseeable
future, with afternoon minRH values falling between 30% and 40%.
While some showers will be possible this week, total rainfall
amounts will remain limited and will likely not curb any ongoing
drought issue. Despite the dry conditions, winds will remain
generally on the lighter side.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CAD