Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
723 FXUS64 KMEG 061142 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 642 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 - Expect more clouds, cooler temperatures, and a medium to high chance of rain and storms on both Sunday and Monday. - By the middle of next week, it will become very hot and humid, with high temperatures in the 90s and heat index values climbing into the triple digits. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 The latest surface analysis places an expansive 1019 mb high over the Southeast and a 1003 mb low near the Oklahoma Panhandle, with a quasi-stationary front stretching northeast into the Great Lakes Region. Aloft, GOES-East Water Vapor Imagery depicts a large upper low over the TX/NM border with a shortwave over the Northern Plains. Numerous severe thunderstorms are currently active along the front. Across the Mid-South, conditions remain tranquil and mild this evening, with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to upper 70s. The aforementioned upper low will continue to deepen and slowly lift northeast over the next 36 hours. As it does, upper-level heights will build across the Lower Mississippi Valley, causing temperatures to climb into the upper 80s on Saturday. Mainly isolated convection is expected on Saturday as moisture increases along and west of the Mississippi River, with coverage remaining around 20% and correlated with peak heating. Convective coverage will increase substantially on Sunday as the upper low expands and pivots through the Lower Mississippi Valley, leading to cooler temperatures amid increased shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level ridging will persist from Tuesday through late next week as a large trough deepens over the Northern Plains. Typical summertime heat and humidity will prevail, accompanied by isolated, diurnally driven thunderstorms each day. The primary forecast concern will shift toward the increasing heat and humidity, with temperatures soaring into the low to mid 90s by midweek and heat indices approaching the 105F mark. There is medium to high confidence that heat products will be needed by late week. By next weekend, the upper-level flow will shift to a more zonal pattern, allowing weak impulses to move through the region. This transition will help moderate temperatures while increasing convective coverage each day. AC3 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 VFR conditions are expected today, though mid-level ceilings will lower as moisture increases from the west. Showers will approach the airspace overnight. Confidence is insufficient to include thunder, as the upper-level ridge weakens and shifts eastward. MVFR and subsequent IFR ceilings are anticipated after 06Z as a low deepens over the southern Plains and a shortwave moves into eastern Arkansas. Showers associated with the shortwave will become prevailing before sunrise and persist through tomorrow. Thunderstorm potential increases tomorrow as the shortwave approaches the Mississippi River. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Fire weather concerns will remain low through the forecast period. Higher humidity returning this weekend and persisting throughout next week will keep fine fuels moist. Additionally, wetting rain is expected across much of the area on Sunday and Monday, further mitigating fire risk. Even as high heat returns mid-week, elevated humidity levels will prevent significant fire weather concerns. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...JDS