920
FXUS64 KMEG 132309
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
609 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory is in effect through
  Sunday across the Mid-South and will likely be extended into
  next week.

- Warm overnight lows will prevent overnight recovery and stress
  at risk populations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR

Recent satellite obs shows a decaying cirrus deck swirling around
a small high centered over the Memphis metro. Regional mosaic
radar shows a weak area of showers north of the FA in KY has
pushed out an outflow boundary southward that may eventually
enter northern portions of West TN and the MO Bootheel. Behind
the boundary, not much heat relief is to be found. Surface obs
are only advertising a 1 to 2 degree drop of the ambient temp.
This should begin to decay even more entering the teeth of the
high pressure and daytime heating. All this to say no changes to
heat products is expected.

Into the weekend slightly drier air will move in with weaker
westerly winds across the mid-south. Dew points "only" in the
upper 60s to just above 70 across the region will help promote
deeper mixing, in-turn allowing for temps to consistently hit at
or above 100 over the weekend. The most dangerous portion of this
extended heat wave will be the lack of night time recovery. Lows
in the upper 70s to a few at or above 80 over the next week will
stress at risk populations due to lack of cooling. Current Heat
Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings are through Sunday, but
products will likely be needed further into next week.

A brief relief from the peak of the heating could be on the table
early next week. The center of the ridge will slide west and
could allow for a weak system to ride along the edge. This will
increase PoPs and cloud cover which may help break up the streak
of truly oppressive conditions. The ridge will re-strengthen and
slide back eastward to by mid to late next week and help
reinvigorate heat and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as high
pressure remains over the area. Wind speeds will generally remain
up to 7 kts from the south through the overnight hours, shifting
to WSW/SW through the daytime and increasing to around 8 to
10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR

Very warm and humid conditions will keep fire weather concerns to
a minimum. Min RH values combined with light winds under a
building ridge will help prevent critical thresholds from being
met into the weekend.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ007-010-011-
     020.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>006-008-009-
     012>017-021>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJB
AVIATION...CMA