615
FXUS64 KMEG 222321 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
621 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

- Mainly rain free weather is expected through this weekend with
  noticeably less humidity. High temperatures will remain in the
  low to mid 90s each day with lows in the mid 60s.

- A cold front will swing through the Mid-South Monday and
  deliver our first taste of fall weather.

- Next week will feature below normal temperatures and comfortable
  humidity. Lows will dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s each
  morning with afternoon highs only in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Visible satellite currently shows a broad cumulus field over the
Mid-South with a north/south orientation, in line with the
northerly cold advection that we have been seeing the past few
days. The cold front which has reigned in this pattern change
still sits over the Gulf shoreline, reinforced by upper troughing
over the southeast. The cumulative effects of each of these
factors will lead to another cooler day throughout the entire
region with highs in the 80s and low 90s. Additionally, forecast
and nearby observed upper air profiles showing a noticeable
subsidence inversion above 700 mb. So, an cumulus are unlikely to
grow deep enough for precipitation as they hit their heads on a
steel ceiling.

This pattern will hold through the weekend as an upper ridge
sneaks in behind the weak upper troughing currently over the
region. Northerly flow will hold and cooler air will continue to
funnel into the region, keeping highs in the 80s and low 90s. PoPs
will remain low (at or below 15%) during this time frame as well.
Some higher quality, low-level moisture still exists to our east
across central Tennessee and Alabama that RAP/HRRR are attempting
to mix just west of the Tennessee River tomorrow afternoon. A few
showers could form within this higher moisture, but upper ridging
lowers confidence in any showers producing any significant rains,
let alone thunderstorms. Regardless, most of the region will be
rain-free through Monday within this pattern.

Into early next week, another upper low will pivot southeast from
Canada into the northern Great Lakes region. The breadth of this
trough is quite larger, with enhanced upper westerlies reaching
as far south as Illinois on Monday. Ensembles seem locked in on
keeping this system over this region for the first half of next
week. At the surface, another cold front will emanate south into
the region by Monday, bringing our temperatures down even further.
To me, it seems like we`ve been given our big break after
suffering through July. Anyways, highs behind the front on
Tuesday look to be below 80 as far south as the TN/MS border with
highs only getting in to the mid 80s below that latitude. Models
also are insisting on painting some QPF behind the front across
the eastern half of the region Monday night into Tuesday. Rain
seems to be driven by 850-700 mb isentropic ascent from the west.
However, as this regime propagates east, moisture and ascent
begin to wane leading to a decrease in QPF. NAM/GFS/ECMWF compound
on this issue as all have differing solutions regarding the
placement and extent of any precipitation. Therefore, confidence
in the extent and amount of rain are still low with further
refinements expected in the coming days.

The rest of the week after Tuesday will remain cooler than
average. Upper ridging will remain to our west, keeping a steady
stream of northwesterlies aloft through the eastern CONUS. As
such, surface high pressure, which will contain the cooler
Canadian air, is not anticipated to move. Highs will be in the
70s and 80s through end of the period with low (up to 30%) rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Dry Canadian surface high pressure will bring continued VFR and
light north/northeasterly winds through the next 30 hours.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Cooler air will remain with limited fire weather concerns through
the period. MinRH will remain above 40% with 20 ft winds anywhere
between 5 to 10 knots.

However, minRH values will begin to fall below 40%, and
potentially further, next week as another shot of Canadian air
enters the region Sunday into Monday. Dewpoints are forecast to
drop below 60 for several days with some areas potentially falling
below 50. With the severity of drought increasing, this has lead
to drier fuels across the region. Winds will remain light, but
decreasing fuel and atmospheric moisture appear to be raising fire
weather concerns through next week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB