015
FXUS64 KMEG 180340
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1040 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- An area-wide Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM
  Saturday, with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 90s to
  lower 100s.

- A weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered rain chances
  early next week, though widespread significant rainfall is not
  anticipated.

- A slight cooling trend is expected by Wednesday, bringing
  temperatures closer to (though still above) normal for late
  September.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A 599 dam ridge remains centered over Arkansas as of Thursday
evening. This ridge will continue to slowly inch southwestward as
broad troughing emerges over the Pacific Northwest. Due to the
intensity of the ridge, the area wide Heat Advisory remains in
effect through 8 PM Saturday. The trough will gradually impinge
on the ridge projecting heights to fall to around 590 dam by
Sunday morning. Uncertainty remains regarding whether the Heat
Advisory may need to be extended into Sunday. Dewpoints are
trending towards the low to mid 60s, but air temperatures will
continue to be in the upper 90s to lower 100s. For now, we will
monitor these trends and the evolution of height falls.

A subtle synoptic change is favored for early next week as the
aforementioned trough targets a weak cold front at the Mid-South
on Monday. This will bring isolated to scattered PoPs into the
forecast during the afternoon and evening, but appreciable
rainfall is not anticipated with this activity. Probabilities of
receiving 0.25" of rainfall are less than 20%. Subtle ridging
will build in quickly behind the boundary, but so far guidance
does not depict an anomalous ridge as we are currently
experiencing.

Wednesday could be the first hint at `relief`, though still 8-
10 degrees above normal for the end of September. NBM percentiles
have a large spread, 9-12 degree differences between the 25th and
75th percentile; so most of the guidance is favoring a slight
cooldown. This seems to be due to troughing being projected set
up across the eastern CONUS. For now, continue to practice heat
safety and follow any local burn bans.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Light winds and VFR conditions are anticipated throughout the
period as upper level high pressure persists.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

An unusually persistent 600-dam upper-level ridge centered over
the region will maintain near-record, midsummer-like heat and
rain-free conditions. Afternoon minimum relative humidity (RH)
values will range from 30% to 40%, slowly drying out 10-hour fine
fuels. However, because high pressure will keep 20-foot surface
winds under 10 mph, widespread critical fire weather conditions
are not anticipated. Clear skies and light overnight winds will
result in minimal to non-existent fog potential.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...SJM