Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
403 FXUS64 KMEG 201736 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 - Well above normal temperatures and predominantly dry weather is expected to continue into Monday with highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. - A cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday night. Widespread rainfall is not expected. - Temperatures will average closer to normal for the latter half of this week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 12Z upper air analysis continues to show a mid-level ridge present over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. A weak quasi-stationary boundary is located from the Ohio Valley, bisecting Missouri, and back into the Central and Southern Plains. Temperatures across the Lower Mississippi Valley are already in the upper 80s to lower 90s as of 11 AM. This upper-level ridge is expected to bring a continuation of very hot temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees through Monday ahead of the front with heat index values expected to remain below 105 degrees. The aforementioned surface boundary is expected to move south as a weak cold front later tonight into Monday across the Mid-South as the upper-level ridge weakens across the region. Short-term models indicate mostly isolated showers and thunderstorms developing mainly late Monday afternoon into Monday evening across the area. Overall shear will remain weak favoring pulse-type thunderstorms with marginal instability capable of a strong to damaging wind gust at best. This front is not expected to bring any appreciable rainfall to the area. Average rainfall amounts are anticipated to be mainly below one- tenth across most areas as probabilities for rainfall amounts exceeding one-quarter inch remain low around 20-30 percent. Behind this front, cooler near-normal to slightly above normal temperatures and a reinforcement of dry air are anticipated with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to 60s. Long term models remain in fairly decent agreement into next weekend with mainly dry weather expected as an upper level low develops near the Mid-Atlantic states and an upper-level ridge builds back in across the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Light south/southwest flow continues as high pressure sinks southwest. A weak cold front will cross the region and a wind shift will result in northerly winds, beginning at JBR first. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop with this front, but model disagreements on timing and coverage preclude mention at this time. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Anomalously hot and dry conditions will persist this afternoon with minimum relative humidity values averaging between 30 to 35 percent. Humidity will increase on Monday with the approach of a cold front. This front will bring isolated to scattered rain chances Monday and Tuesday, with appreciable rainfall not expected. 20 foot winds will remain light through the period. Dry soil and limited moisture will mitigate any fog potential. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...DNM