Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
288 FXUS64 KMEG 302305 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 605 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 603 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Elevated fire danger will persist through the weekend due to unseasonably dry air and existing drought conditions. Please exercise caution with any open flames. - Expect a pleasant and dry Labor Day weekend with plenty of sunshine, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures. - A pattern change next week will bring much-needed chances for rain Monday night into Wednesday, followed by a significant surge of unseasonably cool air. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1127 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 All is clear and calm across the Mid-South this afternoon in the wake of a weak cold front. High pressure to our north will keep winds generally easterly for the next couple days. The airmass in place is also quite a bit drier than we`ve seen recently, which will only exacerbate ongoing drought conditions. In addition, dewpoints have dropped pretty significantly and are actually being overestimated in the short term guidance, warranting a blend of the NBM 10th percentile to better match observations. This is great news for the pleasant feel of low 50s dewpoints despite temperatures approaching 90 today and tomorrow, but bad news for fire weather. Since we`ve been so dry (on average) the last few weeks, drought has primed the vegetation such that wildfire could spread very quickly. We`re looking at elevated fire weather concerns through at least Labor Day. A pattern shift begins early next week as a broad upper level trough retrogrades back over the eastern CONUS. We`re pretty much right at the base of said trough so upper level divergence will encourage just enough lift for showers and thunderstorms to develop each day despite a pretty nondescript surface pattern. A few shortwave troughs may round the bend of the upper level pattern but forecast surface analyses aren`t really showing anything that could be described as a bonafide cold front until at least Wednesday. As such, PoPs are in the 30-40% range Monday and Tuesday to account for any stray showers and thunderstorms that develop with the help of diurnal heating. The best chance (50%) for more widespread rain will be on Wednesday morning as the cold front approaches. Unfortunately, this does not look like a drought-busting series of systems; QPF is less than an inch for the entire Monday-Wednesday time frame. With the cold front on Wednesday, the flow aloft becomes even further amplified, bringing unseasonably low 1000-500mb thicknesses down to the Mid-South. The airmass following this front is of very similar origin and attributes to the one we had last week, the main difference is the duration due to the highly amplified flow aloft. We`re going to be in this cool, dry pattern for at least the next 10 days with the deep midlevel trough set up over the Great Lakes. This will likely worsen ongoing drought conditions and send fire weather concerns back on the rise by late next week. However, this pattern makes for extremely pleasant early fall conditions with temperatures barely climbing above 80 degrees late next week into the following weekend, with low humidity to boot. CPC`s latest 6-10 day temperatures outlook supports this with a high chance (80-90%) of below normal temperatures through next Sunday. CAD && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 No major changes from the previous TAF period. VFR conditions with NE winds 6-9 kts. Sirmon && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Elevated fire weather danger is present across the Mid-South today and will continue through at least Labor Day. This is mainly due to low humidity (MinRHs below 30%, especially for north MS in the Holly Springs NF area) and ongoing drought conditions leading to dry fuels. Rainfall will be pretty isolated early next week and may not provide much drought relief, though MinRHs do increase to 50+% by Tuesday. Another cool and dry airmass is on its way midweek and may further exacerbate fire weather concerns starting Friday depending on how widespread the rainfall we receive next week is. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...JDS