910
FXUS64 KMEG 131735
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1235 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory is in effect through Sunday
  across the Mid-South and will likely be extended into next
  week.

- Warm overnight lows will prevent overnight recovery and stress
  at risk populations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Recent satellite obs show a decaying cirrus deck swirling around a
small high centered over the Memphis metro. Regional mosaics radar
shows a weak area of showers north of the FA in KY has pushed out an
outflow boundary southward that may eventually enter northern
portions of West TN and the MO Pothole. Behind the boundary, not
much heat relief is to be found. Surface obs are only advertising a
1 to 2 degree drop of the ambient temp. This should begin to decay
even more entering the teeth of the high pressure and daytime
heating. All this to say no changes to heat products is expected.

Into the weekend slightly drier air will move in with weaker
westerly winds across the mid-south. Dew points "only" in the upper
60s to just above 70 across the region will help promote deeper
mixing, in-turn allowing for temps to consistently hit at or above
100 over the weekend. The most dangerous portion of this extended
heat wave will be the lack of night time recovery. Lows in the upper
70s to a few at or above 80 over the next week will stress at risk
populations due to lack of cooling. Current Heat Advisories and
Extreme Heat Warnings are through Sunday, but products will likely
be needed further into next week.

A brief relief from the peak of the heating could be on the table
early next week. The center of the ridge will slide west and could
allow for a weak system to ride along the edge. This will increase
PoPs and cloud cover which may help break up the streak of truly
oppressive condition. The ridge will re-streghthen and slide back
eastward to by mid to late next week and help reinvigorate heat and
humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Southerly winds will prevail through the afternoon with gusts
possible until sunset. Scattered low clouds across the area will
decrease coverage overnight as well. High pressure will keep the
forecast very similar as long as it can persist.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Very warm and humid conditions will keep fire weather concerns to a
minimum. Min RH values combined with light winds under a building
ridge will help prevent critical threshold from being met into the
weekend.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ007-010-011-
     020.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>006-008-009-
     012>017-021>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJB
AVIATION...CJB