896
FXUS64 KMEG 171144 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
644 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 643 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

- Hot and humid conditions will continue today. Heat indices will
  range between 104 and 112 this afternoon. Very warm and humid
  conditions will prevail tonight.

- Triple digit heat indices will persist into the upcoming
  weekend, though scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  provide localized relief from the heat.

- The heat will return and intensify next week, with dangerous
  heat indices at or above 110 expected over most of the Midsouth
  by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A muggy night is on display at this hour with temperatures in the
low to mid 80s and calm winds under clear skies. Given the calm
winds, clear skies, and a low-level inversion, patchy fog is
expected to develop in the early morning hours, mainly near water
bodies and river valleys. As we edge closer to sunrise, a very
weak shortwave will move over the Tennessee and Kentucky
stateline where a few showers may have enough lift and present
moisture to form.

By the afternoon hours, a stationary boundary will dip slightly
south into the Mid-South and increase shower and diurnally
enhanced thunderstorm chances mainly north of I-40 by late
afternoon. As we head into the early evening hours, a tropical
disturbance over the Louisiana coastline will begin to dampen the
aforementioned ridge. As this disturbance rotates over Louisiana,
teetering slightly north, a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms
could present themselves, mainly over northern Mississippi
and southeast Arkansas.

As far as heat and humidity go for tomorrow, the aforementioned
ridge and Gulf moisture will increase temperatures and dewpoints
resulting in heat indices 105F+ and areas in the Delta Region in
excess of 110F. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire
Mid-South through 9PM this evening. Be sure to practice heat
safety today by taking frequent breaks from outdoor time, wearing
loose-fitting clothing, and staying hydrated. The idea of heat
headlines on Friday are up in the air as heat indices will largely
depend on how the aforementioned tropical system and front impact
us here in the Mid-South. Showers and thunderstorm chances
increase (30-60%) over the entire area Friday afternoon as the
aforementioned tropical system seemingly rotates north and the
front takes a slight south orient, closer to the Tennessee and
Kentucky stateline. One thing to note, tropical systems are very
unpredictable, therefore depending on what solution ends up
panning out, our forecast temperatures and precipitation chances
Friday could be greatly impacted. A wetter solution will largely
dampen heat indices Friday and into the weekend. Whereas, a dryer
solution will likely lead to heat indices in excess of 105F.

Saturday will be another wet one, especially over northern
Mississippi with remnants of the tropical Disturbance. Forecast
PWATs surge to upwards of 2.2" inches, nearing the 90th percentile
for this time of the year. We could be looking at a nuisance
flooding threat for this weekend. Though as of right now, flooding
will be just something to keep an eye on.

Heading into next workweek, an anomalous ridge will begin to
broaden and build into the Mid-South from the southern Great
Plains region. This will be the weather pattern through at least
mid-week with temperatures soaring into the upper 90s and maybe
even tipping into the lower 100s. The latest LREF guidance has
around a 20% chance of temperatures, mainly along and west of the
Mississippi River, in excess of 100F. Dewpoints will also be in
the mid 70s resulting in likely Heat Advisories and maybe even
Extreme Heat Warnings for much of the week as heat indices also
soar in excess of 105F. Sadly, heat and humidity don`t look to be
leaving anytime soon as the latest CPC 6-10 day temperature
outlook has us bulls-eyed above normal to round out July.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A near persistence aviation forecast for the next 30 hours.
Coverage of TSRA may be slightly more than yesterday, particularly
near the KY/TN border after 20Z. For the Midsouth TAF sites, TSRA
probabilities are too low to warrant a PROB30 mention at this
time.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Fire weather concerns will remain low as high heat and humidity
will persist over the next 7 days.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     036.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>006-008-009-
     013>017-021>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB