852
FXUS64 KMEG 291122 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
522 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1157 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Chilly weather will continue as below-normal temperatures
  persist through the Holiday weekend.

- Rain will return to the Mid-South late Saturday through Sunday
  morning.

- Uncertainty still exists regarding a low-pressure system next
  Tuesday that could bring heavy rain and a mixed precipitation
  regime to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1157 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Surface high pressure, currently centered over western KY,
continues to keep the area dry this evening with dry weather and
cooler temperatures. Through tonight, high pressure will slide
further east, allowing for southerlies to begin bringing moisture
back into the region. This process will be coinciding with the
arrival of an upper shortwave through Saturday morning.
Isentropic ascent and dynamic lifting with the shortwave will
allow the Gulf moisture to begin producing precipitation by
sunrise. Although we have been mentioning the possibility of a
few flakes mixing in early on, tonight`s NBM run has backed off
from this scenario considerably, catching up to the latest
guidance from earlier on Friday. The primary reason is two-fold,
1) surface dry air will be strong enough to evaporate/sublimate
any flakes before they reach the ground and 2) wet-bulb
temperatures will rise due to WAA before precipitation makes it
to the ground. So, although we can`t rule out a flake or two, no
impacts are expected with rain being the main precipitation type
Saturday.

A surface low will move to the north of the region throughout
Saturday, bringing a trailing cold front into the region by
Sunday. Precipitation will continue ahead of this boundary, which
should clear our CWA sometime Sunday evening. This boundary is
still set to stall somewhere near the Gulf Coast, meandering at
this latitude through Monday. Most of the area will see dry
weather prevail starting Sunday afternoon, which is expected to
last into Monday morning.

Another trough will enter the central CONUS Monday morning and
quickly amplify while approaching the Mid-South. Enough upper
divergence and jet streak dynamics will allow the front to our
south to begin transitioning into a surface cyclone through the
day. In response, another bout of moisture will advect north,
crossing over the boundary where near-freezing temperatures will
reside north of I-40. Precipitation will start on Monday
afternoon as rain south of I-40, which will likely (> 60% chance)
remain this way through the entirety of this event. To the north
of I-40, near-freezing surface temperatures will allow for a mix
of wintry precipitation types to take shape Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Looking at forecast LREF sounding plumes from
areas around Lauderdale County TN, a majority of the members` wet-
bulb profiles warm above 0 C into Tuesday morning. This decreases
the chances for snow in areas close to I-40, but as we move north
more profiles move towards the 0 C isotherm, implying that snow
would be more likely. LREF probabilities of .1" or more of snow
accumulation is greater than 50% north of a line extending from
Paris, TN southwest towards Trumann, AR, suggesting where the
highest potential for snow/sleet exists. If this forecast holds,
areas south of this line until I-40 would likely see a rain/snow
mix or freezing rain. However, the details of who will see what
kind of precipitation is where the majority of the forecast
uncertainty exists at this time and will likely shift through the
coming days. Precipitation will end Tuesday afternoon as the
surface low to our south moves east into the Appalachians.
Behind Tuesday`s system, the upper pattern will relax somewhat,
becoming zonal through the end of the week with another area of
surface high pressure over the region Wednesday. This will keep
the forecast fairly cold Wednesday morning, especially if some
areas are able to see any snow accumulation that sticks around
overnight. Regardless, NBM probabilities of low temperatures
Wednesday being below 25 F are generally between 60%-80%, outside
of the MS River Delta in eastern AR and MS. Luckily winds are not
expected to be particularly strong due to high pressure, keeping
wind chills in the upper teens.

Zonal flow will continue to persist into the end of the week as
ensembles are in good agreement with this solution. This will
allow for gradual warming as the surface high moves east. By
Friday, NBM guidance has now consistently forecast more
precipitation for the area as a new Gulf Coast low sets up. Other
models do show this scenario unfolding, which could allow for
another chance at wintry precipitation. However, forecast
uncertainty is still too high to highlight any winter impacts at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Precip over AR continued to lift east early this morning, in
advance of a progressive upper trough over the central Great
Plains. This precip was of a mixed freezing/frozen form aloft,
but liquid at the surface. Over the Mid-South, the atmosphere
below FL080 was quite dry and it will take a few hours to
saturate this relatively deep dry layer.

There is a non-zero chance of -PL through midmorning, as this
precip moves toward the MS River. Thus far, GOES measured cloud
top temps have indicated limited convective potential. A brief
convective uptick will be possible through 15Z, associated with a
weak shortwave emerging from the Arklamiss. Will continue to
monitor.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1157 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

No significant fire weather concerns through the forecast period.
Relative humidity values will remain above 30 percent across the
area with light winds. Wetting rain chances increase Saturday.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB