Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
612 FXUS64 KMEG 230516 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 - Mostly dry conditions and slightly below-normal temperatures will persist through Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of north Mississippi each day. - Scattered thunderstorms (40 to 60 percent chance) are expected to return nearly areawide from Friday afternoon through Saturday. - Oppressive heat and humidity will return on Sunday and continue into early next week as strong upper-level high pressure builds across the area. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Post-frontal, drier air continues to advect into the region, supporting a cooler, more comfortable night across the Mid-South. Temperatures range from the low 70s to 80 degrees, with dewpoints dropping into the mid-60s north of I-40. Near the stalled boundary over northeast Mississippi, elevated moisture persists; weak upper-level easterly flow overriding the boundary will support continued isolated shower activity overnight. Tomorrow morning will feature comfortable conditions, with lows in the 60s along and north of I-40 and lower 70s to the south. TS Bertha remains near the Gulf Coast, maintaining a slow westward trajectory toward Texas. Broad northwest flow aloft will persist across the Mid-South from Thursday through Saturday, keeping temperatures slightly below climatological normals through Friday. Dry conditions are expected for the majority of the area. However, northeast Mississippi remains the exception, with diurnally driven convection likely along the stalled frontal boundary. The boundary begins to retreat northward late Friday, leading to a rise in moisture and instability across the region. A shortwave traversing the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday will catalyze renewed shower and thunderstorm activity. The REFS highlights a decaying MCS approaching the Mid-South late Friday night, with the potential for evolution into an MCV on Saturday. LREF guidance indicates approximately 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE by Saturday afternoon with weak bulk shear around 15 knots. While model confidence in specific timing remains low, convective coverage and probability continue to trend upward with subsequent model runs. The primary forecast concern for Sunday transitions to an amplifying subtropical ridge building east into the Lower Mississippi Valley, promoting a significant increase in heat and humidity. NBM 50th percentile apparent temperatures suggest heat indices reaching 105 degrees, beginning Sunday and persisting into early next week. An Omega blocking pattern is forecast to develop across the CONUS by mid-week. The potential for some relief from oppressive heat arrives late next week as the ridge amplifies westward, allowing for a transition to northwest flow over the Lower Mississippi Valley. AC3 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Elevated northeasterly flow persists overnight as a stalled frontal boundary supports light showers near TUP. MVFR CIGs are likely to prevail at TUP, with a potential for IFR conditions around 12z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail as low-level moisture remains limited. Low stratus will mix out by 15z, with VFR conditions continuing through the remainder of the period. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future with minRH values remaining above 40%. While shower activity is limited through Thursday, there is a forecast for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-South on Friday and Saturday. Looking ahead, high heat and humidity are expected to return on Sunday and continue into next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...DNM