Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
091 FXUS64 KMEG 031828 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 128 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 120 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur each afternoon through Thursday, though widespread rain is not expected. - Hot and humid conditions will peak on Friday, with high temperatures climbing into the mid-to-upper 90s. - A cold front will bring a higher chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, leading to drier and more pleasant weather on Sunday and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 The latest KNQA radar sweep reveals a pocket of showers and thunderstorms, predominantly across southwest Tennessee. Some small hail has been noted with this activity, but impacts have remained minimal. This activity lacks any real upper level support and is likely rooted along a weak surface trough, as noted in the latest surface analysis. As such, any storms that do form will be typical pulse storms with occasional gusty winds and small hail. Convective coverage is a bit higher than what the HREF and NBM guidance had for this afternoon, as a result I adjusted PoPs up into the 20 to 30 percent range for much of west Tennessee and portions of north Mississippi through this evening. The main forecast conundrum remains the track of Hurricane Lorena, currently over the Baja Peninsula, and its interaction with the subtropical jet over the next couple of days. The GFS remains largely aligned with current Hurricane model tracks which take a northeast track into mainland Mexico and eventually Texas, while the ECMWF pushes Lorena back out into the Pacific and keeps subtropical moisture suppressed to the south. The current GFS solution will bring hotter temperatures to the Mid-South, as heights build downstream of the remnants, while the ECMWF favors cooler solutions with less ridging across the region. The upper level pattern will remain dominated by a large trough over the eastern CONUS and a ridge over the western CONUS through this weekend. The Mid-South will remain entrenched in NW Flow aloft, which will allow a few weak perturbations to pivot through the region. This will result in low chances (20 to 30 percent) for showers and thunderstorms each day through Friday. A weak cold front will move into the region Thursday evening, but have very little upper level support to generate any appreciable rainfall. Friday looks particularly hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s, as upper level heights build ahead of the broadening trough. A secondary cold front will move through the region late Friday into Saturday, resulting in a medium chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South. However, the majority of the activity will be behind the front as the trough deepens through the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Broad surface high pressure will build into the region on Sunday and persist into at least early next week. LREF guidance hints at a fairly progressive pattern next week with northwest flow across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Early interpretation leads to below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation chances for this time of year. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace. Sporadic thunderstorms will continue to pop-up over the next few hours. The best coverage will be mirrored with a VCTS at MEM. Fog is expected to develop at MKL/TUP as winds go calm along a weak low-level inversion. Fog should lift by sunrise. Otherwise, light west/southwest winds will remain across all terminals over the next 30 hours or so. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Relative humidity values will remain in the 40 to 60 percent range through Friday. Only isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast through this time period. A cold front will move through the region Friday night into Saturday and there is a low chance (20-30%) of widespread wetting rainfall. Seasonably dry air will move back into the region on Sunday behind the front dropping relative humidity back into the 20 to 30 percent range early next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...AEH