Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
671 FXUS64 KMEG 282332 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 632 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 - Afternoon relative humidity levels will remain low through Tuesday, leading to continued elevated wildfire danger. Use caution if burning outdoors and obey all local burn bans. - Temperatures will warm through midweek, with Wednesday and Thursday high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Humidity will increase late this week, in advance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. - Dry autumn weather is expected early next week, with near-normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Midday GOES water vapor imagery showed northerly flow aloft across the Midsouth, under the far western periphery of a large upper low centered over the Northeast. An upstream ridge axis extended from the southern high plains into the upper Midwest. At the surface, dry easterly flow prevailed over the Midsouth. The nearest upstream 12Z sounding at ILX showed extremely dry air between 850-700mb, with an average dewpoint of -25C. NAM time- height section for Memphis depicted the mean RH in this layer to be around 1 percent this afternoon. The base of this dry air will likely partially entrain into the deepening mixed layer, which is forecast to reach around 5 kft this afternoon. NBM dewpoints did not appear to fully capture this scenario and have been heavily blended with cooler dewpoints from the CONSshort for this afternoon. Tuesday will likely see some moderation of the extreme dryness near the top of the mixed layer, but surface RH will nonetheless prevail below 30 percent for most of the Midsouth. With the upper ridge axis over the Midsouth on Tuesday, weaker mixed layer winds are expected, relative to today. During the midweek, our attention will focus on a slow-moving southern branch upper low over the desert Southwest. This feature will incorporate moisture and energy from the remnants of Hurricane Polo, as it lifts slowly east. Global model consensus is high regarding the evolution of the southern branch low, stalling it over the southern plains and weakening it significantly by Friday. Nonetheless, Midsouth rain chances remain on track for the weekend, aided by PWAT values near 2 inches, the presence of a weak stationary trough axis over the lower Mississippi River Valley, and an approaching northern branch trough axis. Given the weak deep layer shear, there will likely be a diurnal trend to rain coverage and intensity, which will likely reach a peak Saturday afternoon. The northern branch trough axis will exit to the south and east by Sunday evening, with dry midcontinental high pressure spreading into the Midsouth late Sunday. Temperatures for the early part of next week should prevail near normal for early October. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at all terminals. High pressure will gradually begin to move away from the region Tuesday, allowing for winds to begin veering and attaining a more east-southeast direction by the end of the period while remaining light. Satellite observations around 23z showed multiple, small fires across eastern Arkansas. Therefore, sporadic HZ may occur at JBR through the first 6 hours of the TAF period, but the isolated nature of any visibility reductions prevented the mention in the 00z TAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Wildland fire danger will remain elevated through Tuesday, with minimum relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent. Humidity will increase Wednesday through Friday, preceding likely wetting rainfall Friday night and most of the weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...JAB