185
FXUS64 KMEG 300417
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1117 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1120 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

- Elevated fire danger will persist through the weekend due to
  unseasonably dry air and existing drought conditions. Please
  exercise caution with any open flames.

- Expect a pleasant and dry Labor Day weekend with plenty of
  sunshine, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures.

- A pattern change next week will bring much-needed chances for rain
  Monday night into Wednesday, followed by a significant surge of
  unseasonably cool air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

No significant changes to the forecast this morning. A dry airmass
will result in low humidity with near normal temperatures. Expect
afternoon highs in the low 90s through the weekend. Morning lows
will trend slightly warmer, but should remain mostly in the 60s. A
weak ridge should keep conditions dry across the Midsouth through
at least midday Monday. Northwest flow will strengthen across the
middle Mississippi River Valley Monday and a shortwave trough
will shift out of the Plains during the afternoon hours. Moisture
return ahead of this system doesn`t look impressive, but guidance
PoPs have trended higher. NMB probabilities of one quarter of an
inch of rain or higher range from about 50% near the Tennessee
River and in northeast Mississippi, tapering off to 20-30 percent
across much of east Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and northwest
Mississippi. Deep moisture will be a limiting factor for any
strong or severe storms, but general thunderstorms look like a
good bet.

After midweek, another shot of cool air is expected to arrive in
the Midsouth. Expect highs back in the middle 70s to low 80s by
Thursday with morning lows dipping into the upper 40s to middle
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

VFR forecast expected at all terminals through the period. A SCT
to BKN cirrus deck will remain over the region overnight and is
expected to move east of the area later this morning. Otherwise,
light (5-10 kt) northeasterly flow will prevail through the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Elevated fire danger will persist through the weekend as relative
humidity values drop to or below 30 percent across west
Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel, and northeast Arkansas. High
temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s and lower 90s
each afternoon.

Confidence is increasing for wetting rain chances for the
majority of the area Monday night through the Wednesday morning
timeframe. Unseasonably cool and dry air will move back into the
region late week behind a cold front.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JAB