858
FXUS64 KMEG 020453
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1053 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast for the
  second half of Tuesday into midday Wednesday. Total rainfall
  amounts will generally be between 1 to 2 inches.

- A reinforcing cold front will arrive late this week with much
  cooler air expected to filter in by the weekend. Highs are
  anticipated to be in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A relatively dreary overnight period is currently progressing
across the Mid-South with some light showers continuing to move
through the region. This light, shower activity will continue to
push northward through the overnight hours with mostly dry
conditions by Monday afternoon. Ample cloud coverage is expected
to remain with WAA filtering into the area. Highmainly
temperatures will be a bit warmer though on Monday, with highs
returning to the 70s across the area.

Into Tuesday, temperatures will surge even further in front of an
approaching frontal boundary with highs reaching the upper 70s to
near 80 degrees. The aforementioned frontal boundary will be
associated with an upper-level trough axis that will be moving
off the Rockies and through the Plains. The main low pressure
system is expected to pull northward through the daytime on
Tuesday. A line of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing to
our west, with some question as to the strength and severity as
it arrives into our area Tuesday afternoon and evening. CAM
guidance is slowly coming into range, painting a picture of ample
shear but potentially lacking lapse rates and surface CAPE. While
CAPE thresholds can generally be a bit lower in our cool-season
severe weather scenarios, MUCAPE values are still certainly
lacking for there to be a lot of confidence in a severe weather
set-up. The majority of the CAM guidance does have surface
instability becoming shunted as the line of thunderstorms arrives
in our area. Nonetheless, if storms were able to tap into this
potential and maintain strength as they move into the area, a
strong thunderstorm or two capable of producing damaging winds
gusts or a tornado cannot be ruled out. The overall chance of
this does remain fairly low, with LREF guidance of > 250 J/kg of
CAPE and 30 kts of shear generally in the 15 to 20% range west of
the Mississippi River and into a small portion of northwest MS.
HREF is slowly coming into range and is currently portraying an
even more unfavorable environment. All in all, this will be
something to watch over the next 48 hours, but some more favorable
conditions would need to develop for confidence in severe weather
to increase. What guidance does agree on is somewhat anonymously
high PWAT values for much of the area, with values over the 97th
percentile. Right now it looks like much of the area will receive
between an inch to two inches of precipitation, with a medium
chance (40 to 60%) chance of some locations generally south of
I-40 exceeding the two inch mark. While this should not create
significant flooding issues, locally heavy downpours could result
in ponding and localized flooding in flood-prone areas.

Guidance has come into better agreement with pushing the midweek
system out of our area relatively quickly on Wednesday, although
slightly above-normal temperatures may persist into Thursday
despite the boundary. By Friday, a series of dry, reinforcing
frontal boundaries will push through the area and finally knock
our temperatures back down to near normal. Latest 6 to 10 day
guidance from CPC does keep the region in favorable, near-normal
temperatures and below-normal precipitation into next weekend.
With this in mind, next weekend looks pretty great with high
temperatures spanning the 60s and overnight lows in the 30s to
40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Restrictive flight conditions will persist overnight,
characterized by low ceilings and light drizzle. LIFR conditions
are present at JBR with IFR and MVFR ceilings elsewhere. By
midmorning, conditions will improve to MVFR at all sites. Winds
will remain elevated through the period with gusts to 20 kts by
midmorning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

No fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as moisture
will remain. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will return to
the forecast by the second half of Tuesday through about midday
Wednesday. While precipitation chances will dwindle thereafter,
moisture will keep minimum relative humidity values above 40%.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ANS