385
FXUS64 KMEG 231702
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1102 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Dry conditions will continue on Sunday, with high temperatures
  remaining in the 60s across the Mid- South.

- Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast on Monday,
  lasting into Tuesday. There is a very low chance that some
  storms could become strong, mainly overnight Monday into Tuesday
  mornings.

- Sunny conditions will return by Wednesday and last through
  most of Friday. High temperatures will generally remain in the
  50s, with near to below freezing temperatures on Thanksgiving
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Another dry morning ongoing across the Mid-South with
temperatures spanning the upper 40s to mid 50s. Still have a
thick layer of clouds across eastern and southern portions of the
area, with lingering dense fog along the TN/KY line. While these
clouds will likely hold on for these locations through the day,
do expect for them to thin out a bit as the day progresses.
Otherwise, sunny conditions for the remainder of the area with
temperatures reaching the 60s again for our high temperature this
afternoon. As has been the case the past few nights, patchy to
locally dense fog will likely develop again after midnight for
our more fog prone locations. Any fog that develops will mix out
quickly following sunrise.

Into Monday, a low pressure system will continue to move across
the plains, bringing us our next shot of a more active weather
pattern across the Mid-South. As this system exits the plains
Monday evening, it will quickly pull northeastward into the
midwest and deamplify by Tuesday. It seems that the Mid-South,
particularly over north MS, will have multiple, low-end shots for
a few stronger storms, one as the warm front lifts through the
area Monday evening / overnight and again into Tuesday morning as
the cold front passes through the area. Confidence remains very
low with regards to any strong to severe thunderstorms developing
over the Mid-South with this system. It looks like the
environment over north MS wouldn`t really be favorable until
after midnight and by that point struggle to see storms
capitalizing on the little supportive environment in place. In
addition,  LREF joint probabilities remain below 20% through
Monday evening into Tuesday morning across north MS, with
probabilities increasing to about 40-50% midday Tuesday along the
AL/MS stateline in the far southeast corner of our area.
Conditions would be more favorable along the frontal boundary
Tuesday morning into the early afternoon hours, but limitations
still exist leading to low confidence in any severe weather
activity truthfully. All in all, will continue to watch the
threat over the next 24 to 48 hours, but the better severe
probabilities will likely remain south of the Mid-South. With
regards to total rainfall, guidance continues to settle into the
1 to 2 inch range which the area should be able to manage.
Isolated flooding will remain a low-end concern for flood-prone
areas if storms begin to linger or train.

By Wednesday, an upper-level trough will continue to deepen
across the eastern U.S. with a much cooler and drier air mass in
place across the Mid-South. This will lead to dry conditions
prevailing to end the holiday week, with high temperatures
remaining well below-normal in the 50s. Overnight lows will dip
back to near to below freezing by Thanksgiving morning, so keep
this in mind if you have any outdoor plans early that morning.
Lows in the 20s to 30s look likely again on Friday, with a slight
warming trend into Saturday. Into next weekend, the early
indication is a more active weather pattern that would continue
into early next week. While details are still well beyond our
current forecast period, this will be something to keep an eye on
over the next week with regards to heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR conditions return under weak north to easterly flow. Cloud
coverage will increase again overnight ahead of a warm front. WAA
showers are expected to develop tomorrow morning impacting JBR
and MEM first. The HRRR is much quicker in initiation and onset
of showers, while the other CAMs are much slower. Opted for
PROB30s at JBR and MEM to onset a quick development, but best
rain chances reside near/after 18z and 21z respectively.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

No major fire weather concerns through at least the middle of the
week, with minRH values remaining above 40%. The next chance of
appreciable rainfall will occur Monday into Tuesday, with 1 to
2 inches expected. Conditions will dry out by Wednesday, but
winds will remain light through the end of the week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...DNM