888
FXUS64 KMEG 111115
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
515 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 515 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

- A hard freeze (temperatures below 28 degrees) will impact the
  Mid-South Tuesday morning with blustery conditions making it
  feel even colder.

- Gusty southerly winds of 20 to 25 mph gusts as high as 40 mph
  are expected Tuesday afternoon, mainly along and west of the
  Mississippi River.

- Temperatures will return to near normal by mid-week with
  continued dry conditions. Rain chances return this weekend with
  a warmup to the mid 70s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

The latest 03Z run of the NBM is producing borderline wind advisory
criteria (25 mph sustained winds) across northeast Arkansas, the
Missouri Bootheel, and extreme northwest Tennessee. Decided to go
with a collaborated NBM and NBM90 blend, which yields an advisory
with winds meeting the 25 mph threshold. However, a persistence
forecast was the main decision maker as winds exceeded guidance
the past two days. In fact, wind gusts exceeded 35 mph at HKA
(Blytheville, AR) Monday afternoon.

Issued a wind advisory to address the wind threat from late tomorrow
morning through sunset. The main impacts will be unsecured objects
being blown away, broken tree limbs, blowing dust, and a few power
outages.

AJC

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Lingering CAA in the wake of a strong cold front has kept
temperatures mainly in the 30s for the last several hours,
continuing to drop. Radiational cooling conditions will set up
again overnight under clear skies and light winds, which will
allow another hard freeze Tuesday morning. Current forecast lows
are in the low 20s by sunrise Tuesday, but a northwest breeze
will put a chilly bite on the air and send wind chills into the
teens. This will be the last cold morning of the forecast and
last day of below normal temperatures for the foreseeable future.
Temperatures will be on the rise again starting midweek.

After a chilly start to the week, progressive upper level flow
will quickly usher the cold airmass off to the Eastern Seaboard.
The pattern becomes deamplified and nearly zonal by Wednesday,
which will help temperatures return to normal. There`s very
little moisture to speak of for most of the week, so conditions
will remain dry as things warm back up to the 60s and 70s. A very
large warm front is projected to lift north across the central
CONUS on Friday, which kicks off a pretty drastic warmup for the
Mid-South. Temperatures make a quick swing back to above normal
on Friday and continue in the mid 70s through Saturday with this
transition to southerly flow.

Moving into the weekend, a Colorado Low is still projected to
make its approach on Saturday. The timing of this system has
trended a little bit later since yesterday`s forecast package and
will most likely not bring any measurable rain until Sunday
morning. Forecast surface analyses depict the surface low taking
a very southern track across the CONUS toward the Gulf Coast.
This will likely keep us on the warm and wet side of the system
with WAA showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms overspreading
the Mid-South on Sunday. Temperatures will stay well above normal
in the mid 70s through at least Sunday. 30-40% PoPs continue
through Monday as the system makes very slow eastward progress.
By early next week, the upper level pattern deamplifies with
little to no activity on the horizon through the end of the
extended forecast.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period. The main
concern through the period will be gusty, S/SW winds. Wind speeds
will pick up after 14Z, with gusts upwards of 20 to 30 kts by the
afternoon. Winds will begin to fall back below 10 kts near the end
of the current TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1146 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

MinRH will fall below 30% in some areas, especially north
Mississippi Tuesday afternoon. In combination with gusty
northwest winds, minor fire danger will be present. Temperatures
and humidity will be on the rise mid week as southerly flow
returns, but dry conditions will continue. Wetting rain chances
return on Sunday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for ARZ009-018-026-028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for TNZ001.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CMA