239
FXUS64 KMEG 250456
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1056 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 8AM for portions of the
  Mid-South for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph.

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this
  afternoon, mainly for areas in northeast Mississippi.

- Sunny conditions will return by Wednesday and last through most
 of Friday. High temperatures will generally remain in the 50s,
 with near to below freezing temperatures on Thanksgiving morning.

- There is a 50 to 70% chance that showers will return to the
 Mid- South by the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A busy night is ongoing for the Mid-South, characterized by
strong non-thunderstorm winds and training precipitation. 10 PM
surface observations suggest a wake low forming over eastern
Arkansas, with several sites gusting to 45 mph. This area of low
pressure will continue northeast overnight. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for the majority of the Mid-South through 8 AM.

A rather complex forecast will emerge later today as a triple
point area of low pressure moves into the Mid-South. Overall,
rain chances will decrease from west to east by mid-morning.
Areas in northeast Mississippi will sit underneath a moist warm
sector by midday. The severe weather parameter space in this area
will be marginal at best, with greater values being limited by
the forward propagation of a cold front. The highest severe
weather chances are further southeast into Alabama. However, if
the aforementioned cold front lags at any point, areas near
Monroe County, Mississippi will see an increase in severe
potential. If a storm does pop in this region, damaging winds and
large hail will be the primary concerns.

Elsewhere today, an upper level low will form over the Dakotas
and deepen as it pushes east. This system will eject a strong
cold front to the Mid-South on Wednesday. Much cooler air will
arrive for the Thanksgiving Holiday with highs in the 40s and 50s
through Friday. The coldest morning will occur on Friday as lows
drop into the 20s and 30s areawide. Cool temperatures will
persist through the weekend with rain chances increasing late
Saturday as another shortwave treks across the Mid-South.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Gusty winds sustained around 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph
associated with a 1010 mb surface low tracking across northeast
Arkansas into northwest Tennessee will continue through the
night.  Variable flight categories are expected over the next 24-
30 hours due to the passage of a warm and cold front. Confidence
remains low (<30%) on the threat of thunderstorms but showers and
lowering cigs can be expected at all sites.  Precipitation should
shift east of MEM and JBR early to mid-morning and east of MKL
and TUP around midday. IFR or LIFR cigs will accompany the
heavier rain and thunderstorms tonight, but gradually improve to
VFR by midday.  South to southwest winds will prevail overnight,
veering westerly tomorrow.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

No fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will move across the area today into
tomorrow, bringing 1" to 2" of precipitation. MinRH values will
fall below 40% by Thanksgiving through Friday, but winds will
remain light.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ001>005-007-008-
     010>014-020-021.

TN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS