Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
623 FXUS64 KMEG 290432 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1132 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1120 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - The upcoming holiday weekend will be mostly dry and pleasant with comfortable temperatures and humidity. - Upper level disturbances will result in isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday. - Another shot of cooler air is on track for late next week, which will bring a return to well below-normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Rain is mostly exiting the Mid-South this evening. Clearing skies is resulting in some patchy fog. The HRRR is showing some dense fog development overnight from east-central Arkansas through the Memphis metro into north MS. Will need to monitor for a potential Dense Fog Advisory. The latest model data is less wet going forward across east-central AR and north MS through Friday. Just a few showers may scrape this area, otherwise expect dry conditions. Clouds will help keep temps a little cooler across the south Friday (lower 80s) with warmer temps across NE AR and West TN where sunshine will be more prevalent (upper 80s to near 90). Weak northwest flow combined with high pressure over the Great Lakes feeding in lower dewpoints will result in a mild weekend with comfortable humidities. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 but with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s the warmer temps will not have much bite. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. A couple of upper level disturbances moving through the northwest flow aloft will bring occasional clouds and an uptick in rain chances Monday through Wednesday. Expect isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Temps will mainly be in the 80s for highs and 60s for lows. A potent upper low will drop into the Upper MS Valley mid week and push a strong cold front through the region by Thursday. This will push temps well below normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s by the end of the week and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Greatest TAF concern this issuance is fog development across all terminals overnight. Given pockets of clear skies, already saturated soils, and a decent low-level inversion, IFR fog can not be ruled out. HREF and HRRR probs are trending towards such, but confidence was not quite high enough to prevail IFR fog. Fog should lift around 12Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace. Light east/northeast winds will continue over the next 30 hours or so. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Mostly dry conditions are expected across the Mid-South through this weekend. Minimum relative humidities will fall into the 30 percent range each day across the majority of west Tennessee and northeast Arkansas through early next week. Upper level disturbances will bring isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the region Monday through Wednesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...AEH