Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
347 FXUS64 KMEG 311125 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 625 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 611 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Elevated fire danger will persist through the weekend due to unseasonably dry air and existing drought conditions. Please exercise caution with any open flames. - Expect a pleasant and dry Labor Day weekend with plenty of sunshine, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures. - A pattern change next week will bring much-needed chances for rain Monday night into Wednesday, followed by a significant surge of unseasonably cool air. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Upper northwesterlies and building high pressure continue to persist tonight behind a cold front draped across the southern periphery of the region. Temperatures yesterday were able to jump nearly 20-30 degrees from our morning lows through the afternoon hours. This is due to an anomalously dry airmass that has found its way into the Mid- South behind the front. Such dry air will allow for low temperatures in the 60s and 50s again tonight with even drier air advecting in from the northeast. This pattern will remain through Monday with large daily temperature swings and lows in the 50s/60s and highs in the 80s/90s. The northwesterlies currently over the region are a part of a much larger, low-amplitude trough that has settled over the northeastern CONUS and back through the Midwest. Throughout Monday and into Tuesday, guidance shows this trough amplifying with a stronger belt of flow wrapping around its back side. Although we are very dry now, PWATs will steadily climb through the beginning of the week to around 1.2"-1.5" area-wide. Higher moisture, weak upper forcing, and a frontal boundary will allow for some precipitation to develop in the form of daily convective showers. Profiles are still somewhat dry and, with weaker upper forcing/cooling, instability will only maximize around 1000 J/kg. NBM has a 30% - 50% chance of thunderstorms throughout the day Tuesday, shifting to the eastern half of the region Wednesday. Later in the week, the upper troughing is forecast to further consolidate and strengthen over the northern Great Lakes. Although it is far from the Mid-South, the corresponding winds aloft will still manage to reach and affect the weather across the southern CONUS. As a result, a surface low underneath this trough will pull Canadian air south once again Thursday. This front will reach us some time during the end of the week. There are some discrepancies within guidance on how far south and how strong this intrusion will be but at least some cooling is expected. NBM and LREF members show a 50%-70% chance that along and north of I-40 will experience lows below 55 F on Friday, tapering off each day after. Model guidance, in combination with CPC`s latest 6-10 day outlook presenting a high (80%-90%) chance of below normal temperatures late this week, paint a picture that latter half of the period will be cooler than average. However, the exact degree of cooling has yet to be determined. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the period. Light northeast winds will increase to 7-10 kts today, then become light by this evening. AMD NOT SKED included at TUP due to ongoing comms issues. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Elevated fire weather danger is present across the Mid-South today and will continue through at least Labor Day. This is mainly due to low humidity (MinRHs below 30%, especially for north MS in the Holly Springs NF area) and ongoing drought conditions leading to dry fuels. Rainfall will be isolated early next week and may not provide much drought relief, though MinRHs do increase to 50+% by Tuesday. Another cool and dry airmass is on its way midweek and may further exacerbate fire weather concerns starting Friday depending on how widespread the rainfall we receive next week is. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...CJC