Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
539 FXUS64 KMEG 020440 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 - A notable pattern shift takes place Friday with chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Mostly dry and cooler, seasonal weather is forecast by next Monday. - Showers and thunderstorms will result in up to 1 inch of rainfall across the Mid-South through the weekend. - The coolest temperatures will arrive in the Mid-South by Tuesday. Low temperatures will be in the upper 40s to middle 50s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 00Z upper air analysis this evening shows an open wave trough extending from the Upper Midwest back through portions of the Central and Southern Plains. An 80kt sub-tropical jet is transporting a plume of tropical moisture from the Pacific Ocean up into the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. A few isolated rain showers occurred late this afternoon into around sunset across portions of southwest Tennessee and north Mississippi. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show rain showers bisecting Arkansas late this evening. Warm and mild conditions persist late this evening with temperatures ranging from the 70s to lower 80s. Latest mesoanalysis currently shows a relatively stable atmosphere in place across the region. Short-term model trends indicate this upstream activity will move into the Mid-South overnight into Friday morning. Elevated instability will increase modestly towards sunrise to possibly produce a thunderstorm as MLCAPE values increase to around 500 J/kg. This activity is expected to be somewhat disorganized as better upper-level support will depart Friday morning. The 00Z HREF indicates probabilities of surface-based CAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg are between 40-45 percent from late morning through early afternoon across portions of southwest Tennessee and northwest Mississippi. This may occur if there are some breaks in the cloud cover. Otherwise, confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms remains marginal at best given the less than ideal shear and instability. Precipitable water values will be approaching the 99th percentile around 2 inches, normally favorable for heavy rainfall. However, confidence in overall convective coverage, a lack of upper-level support, and dry antecedent conditions will mitigate any overall flooding threat. Current forecast rainfall amounts for the entire Mid-South have trended down again with totals averaging around one inch areawide for the entire weekend. Short-term model trends suggest the weak cold front will stall across the region Friday with a minimum in showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday morning until a secondary wave pushes the front completely through the area by Sunday. A reinforcing cold front Sunday night will bring much cooler air into the region for early next week. Lows will range from the upper 40s to middle 50s with NBM probabilities of low temperatures below 48 degrees averaging around 30-35 percent along the MO/KY border Monday night. Highs next week will be near normal with temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 A cold front is expected to drop into the area on Friday, resulting in a return of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. PROB30 groups were maintained at MEM, MKL, and JBR for much of the period due to uncertainties with overall coverage, and left out mention of TS in this TAF set as instability is anticipated to be marginal at best. Latest ensemble guidance holds off on the development of post-frontal MVFR/IFR ceilings at MEM, MKL, and JBR until the end of the period. South winds will veer N/NNE behind the front and remain elevated through the remainder of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 Minimum relative humidity values and rain chances will increase Friday and into the weekend as a cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Confidence is low to medium for around one inch of rain across the area through the weekend. Cooler and drier air will follow for early next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...CJC