019
FXUS64 KMEG 161744
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1244 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

- A heat wave will persist through Friday. Heat indices will
  range between 105 and 110 each afternoon with little relief
  expected at night.

- An areawide Heat Advisory is in effect until Thursday evening with
  heat indices of up to 110 possible for much of the region.

- Triple digit heat indices may persist into the upcoming weekend
  with another round of excessive heat next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A weak shortwave has sparked a few showers and thunderstorms near
the Tennessee River as of 1130AM. These showers should bring
little impacts to West Tennessee before continuing into Middle
Tennessee. Hot and humid conditions are felt area wide as air
temperatures near or exceed 90 degrees with mid 70s dewpoints.
With little relief expected overnight, and forecast calling for a
degree or two warmer air temperature tomorrow, the Heat Advisory
will remain in effect until 9 PM Thursday for heat indices between
105-110 degrees.

The ridging bringing this heat is expected to begin to break down
on Thursday as a Tropical Disturbance inches along the Gulf Coast.
The National Hurricane Center has at least a 40% chance of
formation to a Tropical Depression within 48 hours. The location
of this system will bring heavy rainfall across the Mid-South.
Hot and humid conditions will be present again on Friday, but due
to the uncertainty in the track and timing of this system, heat
headlines were not continued at this time. Most rainfall would
occur over north Mississippi due to its proximity to the system,
but to complicate things, a cold front will be approaching from
the north. Current models hint at the front stalling before it
gets here, but some showers and thunderstorms could occur along
the TN/KY border and into far northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel. Nonetheless, this weekend looks to continue to be hot
with increasing convection chances.

Unfortunately, the hot and humid conditions return with vengeance
as a potent ridge will dominate the weather pattern. The LREF and
its ensemble members are already painting a medium to high
(50-70%) chance of heat indices being greater than 105F beginning
Tuesday.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Little change needed to the 18z tafs. The majority of the period
will remain VFR - the exception will be MKL where MVFR vsbys may
occur Thursday morning. Coverage of showers and storms will remain
too low to mention in the forecast. Winds through the period will
remain out of the south but speeds will be 7 knots or less.

TAB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Benign fire weather conditions will persist over the next 7 days.
Very high heat and humidity will occur today through Friday with
increasing rain chances into the weekend.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...TAB