052
FXUS64 KMEG 190716
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
216 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

- Strong to severe storms will be ongoing through mid morning
  today as a cold front sinks through the region. The main
  threats are damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall leading to
  flash flooding.

- Hot and humid conditions will start tomorrow through the middle
  of next week, with heat indices above 105 degrees by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

In the near term, several outflow boundaries will be interacting
with each other as a cluster of convection sinks down ahead of a
cold front. The front itself is still back up along the MO and KY
state lines, but there are individual cold pools and larger scale
outflow interactions that will support the convection through
daybreak. We`ll be working with on the order of 1500 J/kg of
SBCAPE this morning and bulk shear above 30 kts, which is plenty
to hold this convection together. Will note that the hail
potential will be on the steady decline for the next several hours
as we`re quickly losing lapse rates. Due to the orientation of the
front and the storm motions moving across it, will also need to
monitor the flooding potential in the near term for training
storms.

After the front clears by about noon today, a 593 dam midlevel
ridge will begin sliding its way over to the Mid-South. This means
temperatures are on the rise and PoPs are on the decline. The
heat and humidity will be the main story for the next week or so,
especially over the weekend. By tomorrow afternoon, heat indices
are inching to triple digit territory along and west of the
Mississippi River. Conditions will only worsen from there as the
midlevel ridge will be parked over west TN by Saturday afternoon.
Expect the first 105 degree heat indices of the season by
Saturday, which will warrant a Heat Advisory for the majority of
the area. Sunday looks pretty much exactly the same with
widespread 105 degree heat indices. Those heat headlines will be
forthcoming with later forecast issuances.

As we move into next week, the upper level pattern will deamplify
just enough to allow diurnally driven convection to return.
30-40% chance PoPs are in the forecast Monday through Thursday of
next week, mostly in the form of isolated summertime convection.
It`ll still be very hot and humid well into the work week, so any
showers and thunderstorms that develop will be a nice cooldown
from the heat and humidity. The 6-10 day CPC temperature outlook
depicts a 70% chance of above normal temperatures through late
June, so this weekend`s ridging is just the start of a persistent
hot pattern.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Scattered showers are quickly developing across western Arkansas,
moving east at around 25 kts. This motion alone would bring showers
or thunderstorms into eastern Arkansas around 03Z. However, the
atmosphere is becoming increasingly unstable in east Arkansas and
across the remainder of the Midsouth. As a result, additional
development is expected and will likely result in earlier impact,
especially at JBR and MEM. Outside of direct TS impacts, cigs
should remain VFR through the TAF cycle.

Southwest winds tonight 10-15 kts may gust over 20 kts. Winds
will shift from the west to northwest tomorrow 5-10 kts and below
5 kts tomorrow night. VFR conditions will prevail at JBR, MEM and
MKL most of tomorrow into tomorrow night. Storms may linger near
TUP through midday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will be out of the area by noon today,
which is the last widespread rain in the forecast for at least the
next week. High pressure will be dominant through the middle of
next week and there will be 30-40% chance of isolated summertime
convection each day starting Monday. Very hot and humid conditions
will start tomorrow with temperatures in the mid 90s each
afternoon.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...JDS