Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
498 FXUS64 KMEG 231132 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 632 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Near to slightly above-normal temperatures are expected across the Mid-South for most of the upcoming week. - Rain-free weather conditions are expected today, but shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated Monday through Wednesday, as the main storm track extends from the central Great Plains to the Mid-South. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A fairly static upper level pattern will prevail over the CONUS through late week. A large upper level height ridge will be the pattern`s most prominent feature, centered near the 4-corners region, to near west TX. The Midsouth will remain near the storm track along the ridge`s northeastern periphery. Our thunderstorm chances will be modulated by northern branch shortwaves, tracking southeast from the central and northern Great Plains. While the overall pattern remains static, a brief amplification will occur early in the week, aided by height falls from the Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians. This amplification will coincide with a westward shift of the storm track into the Ozarks on Monday. Concurrently a weak backdoor cold front will bring lower humidity and modest heat relief to the Midsouth. This relief will be short-lived, as western upper ridge expands eastward Monday night, returning storm chances to the Midsouth.This pattern will vary little from Tuesday through Thursday, with highs returning to the low and middle 90s, accompanied by dewpoints in the lower 70s. This combination should keep daytime heat indices just below Heat Advisory criteria, especially where thunderstorms occur. Medium range guidance consensus depicts some deamplification of the upper pattern late in the week, resulting in a transition to more zonal flow aloft. While rain chances edge downward, above normal temperatures will continue. GEFS and ECMWF ensemble-based guidance depict a more eastward expansion of the upper ridge next weekend, resulting in daytime high temperatures warming to the upper 90s by next Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Generally rain-free conditions are expected through the TAF period. However, there is a low potential (20%) for a few showers at JBR/MEM after 06z tonight as a mid-level cloud deck moves into the area. However, most of this precipitation will likely evaporate before reaching the surface. Prevailing VFR will continue aside from patchy sunrise fog at MKL this morning and again Monday morning. Expect north winds, increasing to 6-9 kts during the daytime hours, decreasing after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Minimum relative humidity will average 35 to 45 percent on Sunday. Despite the passage of a weak cold front on Monday, humidity will increase slightly. Wetting rainfall chances will return Monday night, with episodes of thunderstorms possible through early Thursday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...MJ