653
FXUS64 KMEG 301712
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Above-normal temperatures will continue into Thursday, with
  highs in the lower 90s across much of the Mid-South.

- A notable pattern shift will arrive on Friday, with an
  increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms through the
  weekend. Mostly dry and seasonal weather is forecast by next
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Another pleasant day is progressing across the Mid-South with dry
conditions and temperatures spanning the 80s. With the persistent,
dry conditions, high temperatures will once again warm into the
90s for much of the area by this afternoon. While conditions will
not feel as oppressive as they have earlier in the month, this
will close out an unseasonably warm and likely record-breaking
September across the Mid-South. As climate records stand
currently, Memphis, Jackson, and Jonesboro will likely all break
their average temperature records for the month of September,
with Tupelo right on the edge of tying or exceeding their record.
Climate records will be finalized after today; however, September
2026 will certainly go down in the record books in some capacity.
Dry conditions will persist through Thursday with high pressure
remaining in place to our east and high temperatures once again
expected to reach the low 90s.

By Friday, a notable pattern shift will arrive across the Mid-
South as a low-pressure system currently bringing heavy rainfall
west of the region shifts across the Southeast. Guidance around
this system has continued to struggle, both on the timing of the
frontal boundary descending from the northwest as well as how
much precipitation the Mid-South will see as a result. As things
stand currently, this does not appear to be an entire washout for
the Mid-South, but a healthy, much-needed rain event. The initial
front will arrive on Friday, increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances through the day with PWAT values surging to 1.75 to 2
inches across the area. This front will stall generally across or
just to the south of the area, keeping chances in the forecast
through Saturday into early Sunday. The boundary will finally be
ushered out of the area Sunday into early Monday. Currently, LREF
probabilities have about a 40-50% chance of exceeding 1 inch of
rainfall along and south of the I-40 corridor, with less than a
20% chance of exceeding 2 inches through Sunday evening. These
probabilities are low considering deterministic output is painting
up to 2 inches across northeast Mississippi, although latest runs
have been showing a downward trend. While an inch of rainfall is
welcome considering many did not even receive that much rainfall
for the entire month of September, this does not appear to be a
drought-busting rainfall event. From a severe weather standpoint,
there does not appear to be much in the way of upper-level
support, with guidance showing a modest, skinny CAPE profile on
soundings. While convection could increase our rainfall totals,
severe weather appears to be unlikely.

By Monday, a mostly dry and seasonable forecast emerges across
the area as a weak upper-level ridge develops by midweek. Current
forecast trends favor daily high temperatures spanning the 70s,
with overnight lows in the 50s. These values would be around to
just below normal for the beginning of October, which is certainly
welcome given the anomalously warm September we have recently
experienced.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with a diurnal Cu
field developing this afternoon and again on Thursday. Southerly
winds will increase to around 10 kts this afternoon and will
likely remain above 7 kts overnight at MEM. We could experience
some minor compression issues overnight as the southerly low-
level jet increases to 30-40 kts. Did not introduce LLWS at this
time, but we`ll be keeping an eye on this potential. MEM/JBR are
expected to experience gusts approaching 20 kts Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Dry conditions will persist across the Mid-South through Thursday,
with minimum relative humidity values remaining in the 30 to 40%
range this afternoon and 40 to 50% range Thursday afternoon.
Additional moisture will return to the region on Friday through
the upcoming weekend, with a medium to high chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...MJ