108
FXUS64 KMEG 301717
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- More seasonable temperatures around 90 degrees and lower
  humidity levels will persist through the end of the week. Heat
  indices are expected to creep at or above 105 degrees primarily
  in the Delta Region tomorrow warranting a Heat Advisory in these
  areas.

- Increased shower and thunderstorm chances return to the
  Mid-South Friday and will linger into Saturday with a potential
  localized heavy rainfall threat both days.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures will continue behind
  a cold front late this weekend and are expected to last into
  early next week with temperatures in the 80s and low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Wednesday`s cold front has finally cleared the Mid-South with
cooler dewpoints (in the low to mid 70s) filtering in behind it.
Highs today will be mostly in the low 90s with heat indices
topping out at around 100F. The Delta Region, our hotspot where
dewpoints will likely linger in the mid 70s this afternoon, has
the potential to reach 105+F today, however, confidence was not
quite high enough in moisture pulling to issue a Heat Advisory in
this area. We`re also looking largely dry, though, primarily
diurnally driven, pop-up showers over north Mississippi can`t be
ruled out this afternoon as PWATs remain around 1.8" in this area.

Our dry spell will be very short-lived as by tomorrow a
positively tilted trough will begin to push east into the Upper
Mississippi Valley from the Midwest. This trough will also push
us, here in the Mid-South, further into a northwest flow regime
aloft. As this system begins to push in, forecast PWATs begin to
surge to 2.2"+, nearing the 99th percentile for this time of the
year. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase west
of the Mississippi River by the early afternoon hours. An
attendant cold front will also extend from the aforementioned
trough and begin to influence the Mid-South by tomorrow evening.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will become numerous by the
evening hours. Ahead of this front and upper-trough, a 30-40 kt
low-level jet will begin to kick in, opening a window for a very
conditional threat for a few strong to severe storms in the
afternoon to early evening hours. Digging into the parameter
spacing for this threat, forecast soundings are hinting at around
1500 J/kg of SBCAPE, 25 kts of effective shear, DCAPE of around
500, mid-level lapse rates at around 5.7 C/km, and dewpoints in
the mid 70s. Precipitation may not line up with this environment,
however, if storms are able to dip into this marginal instability
they could have enough energy to form a tall enough updraft to
produce damaging winds. However, the overall confidence in this
threat remains very low.

With increased moisture comes increased dewpoints. As dewpoints
increase tomorrow, heat indices in the Delta Region are expected
to exceed 105F. As such, a Heat Advisory has been issued for this
region valid from 11AM through 8PM. NBM and HREF probabilities
are around 50% of exceeding 105F north and east of this advisory
resulting in a potential extension in the next forecast issuance.
Despite yesterday`s cold front, summer heat continues to linger.

As the aforementioned cold front edges closer to the Mid-South in
combination with surging PWATs, by late Friday into Saturday, a
localized heavy rainfall may exist. Though, forecast rainfall
amounts are equating to less than an inch across our area,
localized higher amounts are anticipated. Confidence in the
overall flash flooding threat overnight Saturday remains <30%,
but remains something to keep an eye on given our environment.

Behind Saturday`s cold front, cooler air will filter in leading
to a pleasant August day Sunday with highs in the 80s. A few
scattered showers will linger mainly along the Tennessee River
Sunday as our area continues to be influenced by troughing over
the southern Ohio River Valley. By mid-week, we`ll begin to
slowly warm back up as ensembles are hinting at the
aforementioned trough pushing further east and ridging slowly
pushing into our area from the west. However, dewpoints look to
remain in the low to mid 70s, hopefully keeping humidity levels
at bay as temperatures begin to increase into the latter half of
the week.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. NE winds will veer, becoming S/SW by
the end of the period. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase
Friday ahead of an approaching cold front; however, timing
remains uncertain due to model discrepancies.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH
values remain above 40% and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ048-049-058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ007-010>012-
     020-021.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...DNM