520
FXUS64 KMEG 201811
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1211 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Wet and unsettled weather returns on Thursday and will persist
  through the end of the work week.
- The upcoming weekend will be mostly dry with highs in the 60s
  and 70s.
- Another unsettled pattern emerges next week with showers and
  thunderstorms possible through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue to form along a retreating
warm front this morning, resulting in a gloomy day for the Mid-
South. Rain chances will persist through the remainder of today
with about an inch of rain falling in areas north of the I-
40 corridor. Precipitation will continue into Friday as a large
upper level trough ejects out of the Desert Southwest. An
additional half inch of rain is forecast through tomorrow
evening, bringing the two day rainfall total to around 1.5 inches
for portions of the Mid-South. Fortunately, conditions will dry
out on Saturday as a cold front swings through the region. The
remainder of the weekend will be mostly dry and cooler with highs
in the 60s and 70s through Sunday.

Elsewhere in CONUS on Saturday, another large upper level trough
will develop over the Desert Southwest. A leading shortwave will
eject towards the Mid-South on Monday, allowing dewpoints to
climb to the 50s and 60s. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
by midday, though continual cloud cover will limit
destabilization. Thunderstorms will linger into Tuesday morning,
but given the weakening trend of the upper trough and its
northerly track, severe chances will be minimal (<10%). Depending
on how models resolve this system as we move closer to the event,
severe storms chances may change.

Thanksgiving temperatures will be slightly below normal as an
upper level low over the northern United States / Canada border
ejects a strong cold front to the Mid-South on Tuesday. Eventual
FROPA is anticipated early Wednesday with much cooler and drier
air filtering into the region. Dewpoints will drop to the 30s
areawide by the evening hours, setting the stage for efficient
radiational cooling. Freezing temperatures will start the
Thanksgiving Holiday. Continual CAA will temper highs on Thursday
with the majority of the area remaining in the 50s.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Messy aviation weather will continue through tonight, in advance
of an ejecting midlevel trough. This feature will bring another
round of SHRA overnight. 12Z HREF hourly TS probabilities are
below 20 percent and RAP soundings do not depict sufficient
instability to warrant overnight TSRA mention in the TAFs at this
time. Later guidance may differ.

In the interim, expect IFR to become widespread this evening, as
moist southerly low level flow develops over the front. This front
should mix north of a MEM during the overnight outbound push.
Ragged/multi-layer cloud bases and scatted moderate SHRA will
likely follow, until a a Pacific cold front passes through toward
sunrise.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Wetting rain chances persist through Friday, limiting the overall
fire weather threat. MinRH values will remain above 50% through
the remainder of the period with additional rain chances
returning next week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB