435
FXUS64 KMEG 141735
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Dangerous heat will persist into at least the middle of the
  week. Little rainfall is expected over the next seven days.

- An areawide Heat Advisory is in effect through 7 PM Tuesday.
  Expect heat indices between 105 and 109 degrees.

- Temperatures are forecast to moderate slightly by early next
  week, returning closer to seasonal normals with highs near 90
  degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A warm day is on display across the region with current
temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
as a 594dam is nearly centered over the Mid-South. With surging
dewpoints and height rises, a Heat Advisory will remain in effect
across the entire area through tomorrow evening. Despite height
rises, peak heating will provide enough lift for a few pop-up
showers and thunderstorms with the potential to produce localized
heavy downpours and gusty winds mainly south of the Tennessee and
Mississippi state line this afternoon. NBM is notorious for not
handling summertime convection very well, therefore isolated to
scattered PoPs were added through the afternoon. Instability will
wane shortly after sunset resulting in dissipating chances.

By tomorrow, the aforementioned ridge will broaden to around
597dam keeping us hot and drying us out. The current Heat
Advisory will need to be extended into at least Wednesday,
however, dry air advecting in may result in northeast Mississippi
falling just shy of the 105 degree or higher heat index criteria.
The extension of this product will be punted to the next forecast
package at earliest given uncertainty over northeast Mississippi.
Deterministic solutions have heights building to 599dam by late
Wednesday and into Thursday with highs spanning the upper 90s to
lower 100s through at least Saturday. Despite near record
breaking highs, Heat Advisories may not be warranted past
Thursday as dry air continues to filter in with persistent
ridging. Beginning Thursday, forecast dewpoints span the 60s to
lower 70s leading to hot and dry conditions as opposed to hot and
humid conditions. This is not great news for ongoing drought
concerns as little to no precipitation is expected through the
end of the week.

Late Saturday, the upper and surface level patterns become less
defined as ensemble members are hinting at persistent ridging
beginning to flatten out and Gulf moisture beginning to filter
back in. Isolated to scattered rain chances return across the Mid-
South with increased moisture and a potential cold front pushing
in. Though a lot can change over the coming days, we look to
finally cool closer to normal with highs in the lower 90s and a
wetter period on the way. One can hope heading into the latter
half of September here in the Mid-South.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. There is a
low chance of SHRA/TSRA through the afternoon across north MS,
but confidence is too low to include any mention for TUP. Winds
will be light overnight, shifting to southerly by the end of the
current TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Outside of pop-up showers south of the Tennessee and Mississippi
state line this afternoon, a largely dry period is anticipated
through the end of the week. Patchy fog can`t be ruled out over
north Mississippi, amidst previously saturated soils overnight
Tuesday. Twenty-foot winds are expected to be light, and
afternoon 10-hour fuels are expected to remain above 10% through
the period. Beginning tomorrow, marginal to elevated fire weather
concerns may exist as minimum relative humidity values drop below
40%.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA