Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
089 FXUS64 KMEG 070419 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1119 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 - Lower humidity will accompany highs in the mid to upper 90s through Thursday. Some areas may necessitate the return of Heat Advisories as early as Tuesday. - A cold front will bring increased rain chances late Thursday into Friday. Behind this front, highs will moderate to the low to mid 90s through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 Summer heat persists across the region thanks to upper-level ridging. In accordance with 00Z surface analysis, a back door cold front resides just south of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line. This front brought convection to north Mississippi and eastern Arkansas Sunday afternoon allowing for brief segments of relief from heat, but didn`t help much in the way of drought worsening conditions. Dry air and cold air advection trail behind the aforementioned front allowing for lowered dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s to accompany highs in the mid to upper 90s for Labor Day. Heat indices will be in the lower 100s, below the 105+F Heat Advisory threshold, across the Mid-South. Minimum relative humidity values will fall below 30% as lowered dewpoints filter in resulting in at least marginal fire weather concerns Monday. Upper-level ridging, currently centered over the southern Central Plains, will continue to build back over the Mississippi Valley, centering over us by Tuesday. Temperatures will increase slightly Tuesday with highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s, ranging about 10 degrees above normal for this time of the year. This trend will continue through Wednesday as upper-level ridging persists across the region. Come Thursday, ensembles continue in decent agreement with an upper-level low pushing over eastern Canada with weak troughing dipping into the Upper-Mississippi Valley. An attendant cold front and decent height falls will bring our next shot at appreciable rainfall Thursday into early next weekend. Though exact timing of this front and heightfalls remain hard to pinpoint this far out, we will welcome any precipitation to hopefully help alleviate worsening drought conditions. The latest LREF has around a 25% chance for >500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 20kts of 0-6km bulk wind shear Thursday and Friday. Severe weather may be a concern with a front amidst persistent daytime heating both days, however, more refined details will be ironed out as time draws closer. Post frontal temperatures look to drop about 2- 4 degrees with highs in the low to mid 90s by late next week, still above normal for the 2nd week of September. The latest CPC 8-14 day outlook has us highlighted 50-60% above normal for temperatures and leaning below normal for precipitation. AEH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 VFR conditions are expected behind the back door cold front through the period. Some patchy fog is possible Tuesday morning across areas where rain fell, but confidence of occurrence at any of the TAF sites is low. Light northeast winds will strengthen to 6-10 kts by mid morning Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 A drier and slightly cooler airmass will be present Monday. Minimum relative humidity values will drop to around 30% Monday as a result of dry air. Dry air will remain in place through midweek with minimum relative humidity values at or below 40%. With dry fuels in place, marginal to elevated fire weather danger is anticipated. Luckily 20 ft winds will be light through this same period. Our next shot at appreciable rainfall returns late week. AEH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...SJM