Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
713 FXUS64 KMEG 040443 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1143 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 - A reinforcing cold front will bring a few showers to parts of the area on Sunday, followed by cooler and much drier continental air early in the week. - Low relative humidity values will result in elevated fire danger over through the work week; please exercise caution and heed local burn bans. - Temperatures will moderate back into the mid to upper 80s by midweek with unsettled weather potentially returning late next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 A quasi-stationary front remains draped over south/south-central Mississippi with a shortwave over central Missouri. Trapped between the air masses, a thick stratus deck will prohibit strong radiational cooling with morning lows projected to be in the 60s. A reinforcing cold front will begin to sink southeast in the coming hours through the daytime on Sunday. The frontal boundary will provide enough lift ahead of it resulting in a few showers along and south of the I-40 corridor on Sunday. Most of this activity after sunrise will be confined to northeast Mississippi and should be clear of the area by sunset. Clearing of skies will be gradual as subsidence occurs behind the reinforcing front. By Monday, cooler air will be in place under a continental air mass. NBM temperature guidance typically undercuts mixing and max heating in a very dry air mass. Temperatures nudging closer to the 75th percentile would not be out of the question for the next several days as dry air dominates through midweek. The bias on temperatures is a bit concerning with projected dewpoints in the 40s and 50s resulting in RH values less than 30%.These RH values could lead to elevated fire danger through most of the week. Be sure to use caution when burning and heed any local burn bans. By midweek, shortwave ridging will emerge and inch temperatures upwards into the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures will climb a degree or two higher daily and some areas have low probabilities (around 20%) of reaching 90 degrees by the end of the work week. Deterministic and ensemble guidance both favor a wet and unsettled weather returning late next weekend, but details remain uncertain. DNM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 An MVFR cloud deck was gradually thinning around MEM at 04Z, while AWM had improved to VFR. Where clouds remained, bases were starting to lower near or below IFR thresholds from MKL southward. Area radars showed high-based -SHRA falling into the lower underlying clouds. While varying sky conditions will continue overnight, probabilities are greater than even for prevailing MVFR at MEM and MKL. TUP may make a two category drop to IFR with a near stationary frontal boundary just south of the terminal. VFR should prevail at all Midsouth TAF sites by early afternoon. Thereafter, drier air will begin to flow into the region behind a reinforcing cold front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 A cold frontal passage late Sunday afternoon into the evening will usher in a significantly cooler and drier air mass. Behind the front, minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop near 30 percent south of Interstate 40 on Monday and Tuesday, with a medium-to-high probability of widespread relative humidity dropping below 30 percent on Wednesday and Thursday. Rain-free conditions and low fire weather moisture levels will likely continue through late next weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...PWB