912
FXUS64 KMEG 011132
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
632 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

- Expect a pleasant and dry Labor Day with plenty of sunshine,
  humidity shouldn`t be quite as low with high temperatures and
  comfortable temperatures around 90 degrees.

- A pattern change this week will bring much-needed chances for
  rain Monday night into early Wednesday, followed by a
  significant surge of unseasonably cool air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Weak northwest flow will develop Monday as a shortwave trough
shifts out of the Central Plains. We should see one more day
featuring high temperatures near 90 degrees and seasonably low
humidity to start off the week, but not quite as warm and dry as
we experienced over the weekend. Guidance continues to struggle
with the onset of precipitation early next week, but latest
consensus is that rain will begin Monday night in West Tennessee
and shift west Tuesday. Accumulations still look meager with the
highest totals near the Tennessee River around two-thirds of an
inch) tapering off to less than one tenth of an inch in northeast
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. The potential for heavier
amounts over west Tennessee exist as a weak low level jet
develops Tuesday night, but confidence is too low to include
higher amounts in the forecast at this time. NBM probability of
one half of an inch of accumulation or higher range from about 70%
in far northeast Mississippi and west Tennessee near the
Tennessee River to less than 20% along and west of the Mississippi
River through Midweek.

Another seasonably strong cold front is expected to move across
the Middle Mississippi River Valley Thursday. The airmass behind
the front will feature below normal temperatures and low humidity
for early September. This pattern will be great for outdoor
activities, but may worsen drought and Fire Weather concerns
across the Midsouth.

Our coolest period looks to be Thursday into Friday morning when
highs should be in the 80s and lows should be in the low 50s to
low 60s. Next weekend looks mild and dry as surface high
pressure builds over the Ohio Valley.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A VFR cloud deck, currently sitting around 15 kft, is over the
region. A few showers exist across eastern Arkansas within these
clouds, which could approach MEM throughout the first few hours
of the period. VFR is expected otherwise throughout the day at all
terminals. A few showers could develop near TUP around 00z,
potentially lasting through the night, but forecast confidence is
still too low to mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Slightly higher RH`s and slightly lower temperatures should curb
fire weather concerns Monday. Some rainfall is expected next week,
but accumulations may not provide much drought relief. Another
cool and dry airmass is on its way midweek and may reintroduce
fire weather concerns starting Friday depending on how widespread
the rainfall we receive next week is.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JAB