276
FXUS64 KMEG 181802
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
102 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- An area-wide Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM
  Saturday, with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 90s to
  lower 100s.

- A weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers and
  thunderstorms early next week. Widespread significant rainfall
  is not expected.

- A slight cooling trend is expected by Wednesday, bringing
  temperatures down from near-record values to above-normal for
  late September.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Morning upper air maps show a 596 - 598 dm ridge over the Mid-
South. Strong diurnal heating underneath the ridge will bring a
continuation of near-record temperatures across the region with
highs likely reaching the upper 90s and low 100s through this
afternoon. Dewpoint observations show values in the middle to
upper 60s, which are expected to mix down slightly through this
evening, but values should remain high enough to allow for heat
indices above 105 F. Model guidance is still in good agreement
that the ridge will continue to sit over the region into this
weekend, although slowly weakening in amplitude. Therefore,
temperatures around 100 F are expected through Saturday
afternoon, potentially as far out as Sunday, with similar heat
index values to today. In turn, a Heat Advisory is in effect
areawide through Saturday evening at 8 PM CDT. Just enough
uncertainty remains regarding heat index values Sunday afternoon
to preclude the extension of the Heat Advisory through Sunday.

Medium range guidance continues to trend towards higher
confidence in a further weakening of the upper ridge into the
early part of next week. The primary drivers for this weakening
are from two troughs, one across the northern Plains and another
over the Gulf, that act in tandem to smooth out the ridge. By
Monday afternoon, 500 mb heights will be potentially as low as
586 dm, leading to a drastic change in low-level temperatures. At
the same time, a 1030+ mb surface high will develop across
eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS, pushing cooler air
southwestward across the Great Lakes and Atlantic Coastline
through midweek.

The rest of the forecast period will then likely be dominated by
surface high pressure as northwesterlies replace the ridging and
surface northerlies keep drier air locked into the region.
Furthermore, cooler surface theta e and upper subsidence will keep
PoPs below mentionable through the end of next week. Expect daily
highs in the middle to upper 80s Wednesday and beyond with lows
in the low to middle 60s. Although we may have been burned, both
literally and figuratively by the temperature forecast in the past
week and a half, guidance has certainly started to converge on
this cooler solution. So, look forward to more bearable heat on
the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail across all terminals
through the next 30 hours under high pressure aloft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Strong ridging will continue to produce afternoon highs near or
above 100 F through this weekend across the region, resulting in
minimum relative humidity values in the 30s for the majority of
the region. There is a 40% - 50% chance of minimum relative
humidity values falling below 30% both today and tomorrow. Fuels
will also continue to dry out with 10 hour fuels modeled to fall
to around 10% through the afternoon hours each day through Sunday.
Fortunately, 20 foot winds will be light, generally residing below
10 knots with tall, 5000 foot or higher mixing heights. Fog
chances remain low (< 10%), but patchy fog cannot be ruled out. A
cold front is expected to reach the region early next week,
cooling afternoon highs, bringing minimum relative humidity values
above 40%, and shifting winds to a northerly direction.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AC3