Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
172 FXUS64 KMEG 101729 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1229 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1120 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 - Pleasant, near-normal temperatures will continue through Saturday under clear skies. - Temperatures will warm a few degrees early next week as an upper level ridge pushes into the region. - Dry conditions are expected to persist through the next seven days. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 The Mid-South sits in a triple-point of synoptic features defined by an anomalous ridge to our west, a deep upper level low over the northern Great Lakes, and a separate upper low centered over Georgia. As a result, the region remains in northwest flow aloft with a decaying MCS pushing southeast across Missouri. A few CAMs depict spotty showers making it as far south as Jonesboro, AR this evening before completely dying off. Given a relatively dry column of air aloft, any precipitation that does fall will likely not make it to the surface. Otherwise, expect clear skies and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A messy synoptic pattern will persist into early next week with the aforementioned low over Georgia forming into an early season nor`easter. As this system pulls north, the ridge out west will finally have a path into the Mid-South. Expect temperatures next week to warm a few degrees with highs in the low to mid 80s by Tuesday. Ensemble forecasts suggest a cooler than anticipated forecast for the middle of next week as a shortwave and attendant cold front push into the Great Lakes Region. This boundary will sink further south than originally forecast, meaning the Mid-South will see near-normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. No significant signal for precipitation is noted over the next week or so, likely leading to deteriorating drought conditions for the middle of October. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 VFR. Broad surface high pressure will result in mostly clear skies and light and variable winds throughout the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1120 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Fire weather concerns remain low this period as MinRH above 40 percent and light 20ft winds prevail. The one thing to watch as we move into next week will be fuel moisture as dry conditions persist. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...AC3