691
FXUS64 KMEG 261455
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
955 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Temperatures across the Mid-South are in the mid 70s to near 80
degrees under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Recent regional
radar imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the Mid-South at this hour. One of these storms in
particular has prompted the issuance of a couple special weather
statements and a severe thunderstorm warning. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase later today as a
line of storms to our west moves through the Mid-South. The
primary hazards are expected to be damaging winds with
thunderstorm activity todayand large hail. Flash flooding may also
be a concern, especially in situations where rainfall continues
to fall over the same area. Be sure to have multiple ways to
receive weather information today, and be on the lookout for
possible watches, warnings, and advisories.

JPR

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region today with
a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the mix. By tomorrow,
slightly cooler temperatures and dry conditions return before
warming back up Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A weak frontal boundary is currently pushing through the area,
leading to early morning showers and thunderstorms for locations
generally north of I-40. Have already had a few storms take
advantage of the current environment, with a couple of strong
storms with a lot of lightning and some gusty winds. Surface
boundary has pushed out ahead of the convection at the current
time, so do expect coverage to stall and diminish a bit over the
next few hours. Looking to our northwest across Missouri, yet
another MCS is trekking our direction and will likely move into a
primed environment. Some strong to severe thunderstorms
development could occur based on latest model soundings, with most
showing this line entering the far NW portions of the area by
late morning and continue into the afternoon. CAMs do seem to be
having some issues resolving the eastward extent of the MCS, so
will need to keep an eye on things as it moves towards the area to
see its eventual orientation. Nonetheless, damaging wind gusts
will be the main concern, but some hail cannot necessarily be
ruled out either. PWAT values remain a bit high, so some isolated
flooding in flood prone areas during heavy downpours or if storms
are slow moving could occur. Could see some post frontal activity
behind the initial wave, but everything should exit the area by
the late evening.

Upper-level ridge will begin to build into the region into
Thursday, aiding in drying out the area through at least Friday.
Luckily, N/NE flow on Thursday will aid in knocking our temps back
a few degrees, with highs likely remaining in the 80s to near 90.
This will be short lived as surface winds will quickly return to
southerly on Friday, leading to temps climbing back into the 90s
and dew point temps into the mid 70s. Will have to keep an eye on
the MS Delta for heat headlines Friday, but widespread heat
headlines look increasingly likely for Saturday. Another weak
frontal boundary will move through late Saturday into Sunday,
bringing along some showers and thunderstorms and knocking our
temps back a few degrees once again. As is our summertime song and
dance though, this will be short-lived as temps soar by the middle
of next week as a potent surface high pressure looks increasingly
likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

An active TAF period lies ahead as multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated. A more defined line of storms will
move into the Mid-South this afternoon, resulting in MVFR CIGs at
all sites. Precipitation will wane into the evening hours with
winds becoming northerly overnight. In addition, guidance
continues to support development of IFR CIGs at MKL and TUP by
03Z, lasting through the end of the period.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ANS