Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
024 FXUS64 KMEG 011122 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 622 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 622 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 - Dry conditions will remain through Saturday morning with highs in the low to mid 60s. - Rain showers will move into the region Saturday afternoon, lasting into Sunday morning. - Dry conditions will return Sunday afternoon through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1014 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025 Cool weather continues to persist across the region as surface high pressure remains. This will allow for overnight lows to stay in the 40s and low 50s. The dry weather, however, will be short- lived with a new trough axis swinging through the region Saturday. Upper height falls will encourage shower development which is already occurring over southern Missouri and eastern Kansas. These showers will advect east into the Mid-South by Saturday afternoon alongside the upper height falls. Rainfall accumulations amongst guidance are rather low with only up to .5" across portions of Western Tennessee. This is likely due to the scattered nature of precipitation and the fast motion of the upper forcing. Rainfall will end sometime early Sunday morning with the upper trough amplifying just to the north and east of the region. Colder air will begin to filter into the region with lows dropping back to the upper 30s and low 40s Sunday. This trend only continues into Monday morning with areas east of the Mississippi River having a 60%-80% chance of seeing temperatures at or below 35 F per the latest NBM. This will allow for widespread frost Monday morning as many areas will approach 32 F for the first time since last winter. Highs will drop accordingly with much of the region in the upper 50s to low 60s Sunday and Monday. Ridging will increase behind this weekend`s upper trough as it moves out and into the Atlantic. Therefore, temperatures are expected to warm through next week with dry weather. Highs will start in the upper 60s Tuesday, quickly warming above 70 Wednesday, and hitting plateau through the end of the week. Ensemble spread is reasonably high through this time period with the upper pattern becoming zonal which would keep weather benign through the end of the period. A few GEFS members do show a low- amplitude shortwave bringing some height falls into next weekend, and some increase in rain chances, but this scenario is still subject to change. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Showers will develop along a cold front today, bringing -SHRA to all sites. An associated wind shift will occur with this boundary with light northerly winds anticipated after sunset. Overnight, MVFR CIGs will develop, but will improve to VFR shortly after sunrise on Sunday. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1014 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025 Low fire weather danger forecast through the period. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40% with light 20 ft winds. Wetting rains will return Saturday afternoon, lasting through Sunday morning. Rain accumulations will generally be light with only up to a half inch possible across portions of West Tennessee. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...ANS