Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
936 FXUS64 KMEG 301139 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 639 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Elevated fire danger will persist through the weekend due to unseasonably dry air and existing drought conditions. Please exercise caution with any open flames. - Expect a pleasant and dry Labor Day weekend with plenty of sunshine, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures. - A pattern change next week will bring much-needed chances for rain Monday night into Wednesday, followed by a significant surge of unseasonably cool air. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 No significant changes to the forecast this morning. A dry airmass will result in low humidity with near normal temperatures. Expect afternoon highs in the low 90s through the weekend. Morning lows will trend slightly warmer, but should remain mostly in the 60s. A weak ridge should keep conditions dry across the Midsouth through at least midday Monday. Northwest flow will strengthen across the middle Mississippi River Valley Monday and a shortwave trough will shift out of the Plains during the afternoon hours. Moisture return ahead of this system doesn`t look impressive, but guidance PoPs have trended higher. NMB probabilities of one quarter of an inch of rain or higher range from about 50% near the Tennessee River and in northeast Mississippi, tapering off to 20-30 percent across much of east Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Mississippi. Deep moisture will be a limiting factor for any strong or severe storms, but general thunderstorms look like a good bet. After midweek, another shot of cool air is expected to arrive in the Midsouth. Expect highs back in the middle 70s to low 80s by Thursday with morning lows dipping into the upper 40s to middle 50s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Low stratus producing IFR conditions will persist at TUP for the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light northeast winds will prevail through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Elevated fire danger will persist through the weekend as relative humidity values drop to or below 30 percent across west Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel, and northeast Arkansas. High temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s and lower 90s each afternoon. Confidence is increasing for wetting rain chances for the majority of the area Monday night through the Wednesday morning timeframe. Unseasonably cool and dry air will move back into the region late week behind a cold front. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...CJC