828
FXUS64 KMEG 161722
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect across the entire
  Midsouth through Sunday evening. The Extreme Heat Warning has
  been extended through Monday for areas west of a Jackson,
  Tennessee to Tupelo, Mississippi line. A Heat Advisory has been
  issued for areas to the east of this line for Monday.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along a weak
  frontal boundary late tonight and Monday. Temperatures will
  moderate behind this front on Tuesday, but still likely reach
  Heat Advisory criteria over north Mississippi, southwest
  Tennessee and eastern Arkansas.

- More widespread relief from the extreme heat is expected late
  this week, with temperatures returning to near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Midday GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper level ridge axis
extending through the Midsouth, roughly along the I-40 corridor
and reflected in 500mb heights around 597dam. We remained
situated between tropical easterly flow along the Gulf coast and
an MCS wave train extending from KS to IL and points eastward.
12Z LZK sounding showed 700mb temps of 13C, which is warm even
for mid-August.

Through Tuesday afternoon, the ridge axis will drop south near
the Gulf coast, while modest height falls occur over the lower OH
River Valley, concurrent with an MCS moving east-southeast from
MO. A weak surface cold front, possibly convectively-reinforced,
will sag into northern portions of the Midsouth toward daybreak
Monday. A few CAMs depict isolated shower and thunderstorm
development Monday afternoon, likely aided by the return of
modest deep layer shear and surface dewpoint pooling in the
mid/upper 70s. If these dewpoints verify, 700mb temps of 10-12C
will likely be insufficient to cap deep moist convection
completely, and some areas may experience a localized relief from
the heat Monday afternoon.

500mb heights will continue a modest decline on Tuesday, as light
northerly flow prevails at the surface. Areas to the east and
north of Memphis may fall short of Heat Advisory criteria Tuesday
afternoon, which would be welcome. This relief will be
interrupted on Wednesday by prefrontal return flow developing
ahead of moderate midlevel height falls through the Midwest.
These height falls will make it to the Midsouth on Thursday,
aided by shortwave trough diving southeast from the central
plains. By Thursday afternoon, the upper ridge will be well-
removed from the Midsouth and centered over the 4-corners region.
Among the medium range global models, there is relatively good
consensus in showing continued height falls and an associated
cold frontal passage late Thursday into Friday. This would bring
a chance of thunderstorms, followed by the return of near normal
temperatures next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions forecast at all terminals through the forecast
period. Light west-northwesterly winds will continue between 5 -
10 knots. Satellite imagery trends indicate that some convective
showers may develop in the first few hours of the period, with
minimal impacts possible at JBR through this evening. A gust
front is then expecting to swing south into the region tonight
and tomorrow morning, bringing a northwesterly wind shift. Some
showers may attempt to develop along the boundary into the
afternoon hours, but low confidence in the position of the
boundary and the coverage of any -SHRA/TSRA prevented any mention
in the TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Minimum relative humidity is forecast to range from 40 to
50 percent through midweek. Due to dry and warm soils, nighttime
fog formation is not expected. A cold frontal passage will bring
a chance of wetting rainfall late Thursday into early Friday.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     ARZ009-018.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ004>006-
     009-017.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     MSZ004>006-009-017.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ001>003-007-
     008-010>016-020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-050>055-090>092.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Monday for
     TNZ001>004-019>022-050>055-090>092.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for TNZ048-049-088-
     089.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JAB