925
FXUS64 KMEG 161134 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
634 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
  end of the work week. Severe weather chances will remain limited
  mainly during the daytime hours each day with gusty winds and
  localized heavy rainfall as the main threats.

- Hot and humid conditions will develop late week, with heat
  indices above 100 degrees by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A stationary front is currently draped across the Ozarks up
through eastern Kentucky. A relatively compact MCV is also riding
up against that boundary and causing very efficient rainfall
producers to train over far northeast AR and southeast MO. MRMS
paints these rain rates right around 1"/hour, which is more than
enough to cause flooding issues, especially with slow-moving
training storms. Most of this activity has stayed just out of our
CWA, but over the last couple hours, the boundary has sagged south
enough to catch our far NW zones in the heavy rainfall. Will be a
developing situation throughout the morning, flooding wise.

The next 2-3 days are essentially a persistence forecast since
that stationary front will remain situated over the OH River
Valley down through the ArkLaTex. Diurnally enhanced convection
is the main story through at least Wednesday; severe weather
chances remain limited this week. We have little to no
organizational support from a kinematic standpoint, but we`ll be
working with on the order of 2500 J/kg of CAPE each afternoon this
week per the HREF and LREF ensemble means. In addition to PWATs
well above the 90th percentile for mid June, the main threats with
any microbursts or multicell clusters that develop this week will
be gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

Another cold front will swing down from the northern Plains on
Thursday morning, transitioning the convective mode to less
isolated single cells and more widespread light pre-frontal rain.
Given that this is a very weak front, QPF looks very limited (less
than half an inch) and temperatures will not see much of a
notable drop. In fact, temperatures are quickly on the climb by
Friday as a 594 dam ridge slides over the southeast CONUS. This
ridge will further amplify into the weekend, trapping the Mid-South
under the first heat dome of the summer. Heat indices will almost
certainly be in triple digit territory for the MS Delta by Friday
afternoon. Saturday looks like the hottest day and will most
likely warrant heat headlines for the majority of the area.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Similar aviation weather scenario to the past 24 hours, with
abundant moisture and a nearly static upper level trough. Today`s
TSRA chances should peak during the mid to late afternoon.

There is a signal for stronger warm air and moisture inflow
Tuesday morning. This will drive higher chances for pre-dawn
MVFR/IFR CIGs and TSRA chances as early as late morning Tuesday.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Light south/southwest winds and high humidity will persist into at
least the middle of the work week. Shower and thunderstorm
chances are in the 50-60% range each afternoon and evening in a
summertime convective pattern. Hot and humid conditions will
return late week with temperatures rising into the lower to middle
90s.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...PWB