798
FXUS64 KMEG 031711
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1211 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

- Pleasant weather will continue through early this week. High
  temperatures will be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

- Temperatures will begin to climb during the back half of the
  week. Most triple digit heat indices will be confined to the
  Mississippi and Arkansas delta counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A pleasant weekend continues across the Mid-South with
temperatures currently spanning the 70s under a sunny sky.
Overall, a fairly benign pattern is expected to continue through
at least midweek, with weak upper-level northwesterly flow. This
will keep temperatures a few degrees below normal for early
August, in the mid to upper 80s. A few counties across our
southern counties could reach the 90 degree mark, but overall most
locations will remain in the 80s. While much of any precipitation
will remain east of the area today, a few afternoon thunderstorms
could approach the TN River and northeast MS on Monday and Tuesday
afternoons. Chances will remain in the 20% to 40% range through
this timeframe.

By Wednesday, this weak upper-level pattern will begin to
breakdown further with a strengthening ridge developing west of
the area. While thunderstorm chances (20 to 40%) will remain
Wednesday afternoon, chances will remain low (< 20%) through the
remainder of the week and into next weekend. With the decrease in
afternoon convection and building ridge, do expect for afternoon
highs to be on the upward trend. High temperatures will gradually
return to the 90s for the second half of week, but dew point
temperatures will remain manageable in the low 70s. As such, heat
index values should remain below 100, with only a few locations
across the delta regions approaching or exceeding the 100 mark.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Satellite imagery depicts a VFR Cu field developing across the
airspace as of 12PM. Convective activity should remain east of
terminals through this evening. Overnight, guidance continues to
hint at MVFR CIGs developing as a surface low treks across the
Mid-South. Winds will be light and variable.

ANS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH
values will remain in the 40% to 50% range. Chance (20 to 40%) of
thunderstorms will mainly be confined to the TN River and NE MS
Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ANS