237
FXUS64 KMEG 081714
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1214 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- Gradually increasing humidity will accompany highs in the mid to
  lower 100s through Thursday. A Heat Advisory is in effect today
  for portions of the Mid-South and will be expanded Wednesday.

- A cold front will bring increased rain chances and cooler
  temperatures late Thursday into Friday. High temperatures will
  moderate to the low to mid 90s through the weekend into early
  next week.

- Rainfall totals look to be minimal with the cold front, and a
  strong to severe thunderstorm is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

A transient ridge is centered along the Mississippi River Valley
today and will de-amplify considerably over the next 24 hours as
it shifts along the East Coast. Despite the de-amplification of
the overall longwave ridge, thicknesses will build slightly
(~2 dam) over the southeastern US. This feature will extend into
the lower and middle Mississippi River Valley. Along with
increasing moisture over the Mid-South, these factors will boost
heat indices higher tomorrow, necessitating the expansion of the
current Heat Advisory. Low 70s dew points should hang on a bit
longer in northeast Mississippi, keeping it below advisory
criteria (greater than 105F), but the remainder of the Mid-
South can expect afternoon heat indices to peak between 106 and
110 degrees. Guidance dew points, namely the NBM, have been a bit
high, especially along and west of the Mississippi River. For
consistency`s sake, shaved a degree or two from this guidance,
keeping heat indices below warning criteria (above 110F). The
ridge will continue to suppress any convection this afternoon and
tomorrow, resulting in dry conditions across the region.

Thursday has the potential to be just as hot as Wednesday,
especially along and south of I-40. The ridge will continue to
break down on Thursday. Lowering thicknesses and increasing cloud
cover late in the day over northeast Arkansas, the Missouri
Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee should keep temperatures below
advisory criteria (above 105F). Another Advisory may be needed
farther south, including north Mississippi, east-central
Arkansas, and portions of west Tennessee.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday appears
to be minimal at this time, mainly due to weak shear. However,
any storms that manage to develop will have the potential to
produce strong winds. Unfortunately, rainfall totals associated
with the front also appear minimal. WPC`s rainfall totals suggest
any portion of the Mid-South will be lucky to receive one-quarter
of an inch Thursday night through Friday.

Friday should be cooler with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms.  High temperatures are expected to be in the low
to middle 90s. A weak trough will shift east of the area late
Friday.  Expect to see a drier, warmer pattern return over the
weekend as a weak ridge builds over the Plains then shifts east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions and southerly winds are anticipated through the
period. Winds may gust to around 15 kts on Wednesday.

ANS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Hot and dry conditions will persist across the Mid-South. Minimum
relative humidity values will continue to trend higher ahead of
an approaching cold front. Expect readings mostly in the 40s
Wednesday and Thursday. 20 ft winds will remain light through
Thursday. Wetting rain returns late Thursday ahead of the front,
but totals look minimal at this time.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ001-002-
     007-008-010>013-020-021.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-002-007-008-
     010>013-020-021.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>053-088>090.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ088-089.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ANS