821
FXUS64 KMEG 301043
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
543 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 542 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Above normal temperatures will continue into Thursday with highs
  in the upper 80s to lower 90s across many locations.

- Showers and thunderstorms move into the Midsouth on Friday and
  persist through early Sunday. Dry and seasonal weather is
  forecast late Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Late evening Water Vapor satellite trends showed a cutoff upper-
level low centered over southwest Arizona with the remnants of
Hurricane Polo now located over northwest Mexico. An upper-level
ridge over portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley and a surface high centered over the Mid-Atlantic states
is still bringing dry weather to the Mid-South. Late evening
temperatures were mostly in the 60s to lower 70s with surface
dewpoints recovering back into the 50s.

Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure will gradually
bring a slow return of moisture to the Mid-South into Thursday
with minimum relative humidity values not as low as the past few
days. Most locations will see a return of 90 degree temperatures
Wednesday and especially on Thursday. Confidence remains high for
dry weather to persist into Thursday.

Deterministic and ensemble model solutions are in agreement with
the upper-level low lifting into portions of the Central and
Southern Plains, then transitioning into an open wave trough as
it moves into the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Rain
chances will gradually begin to develop late Thursday night into
Friday morning as the right entrance of an upper-level jet streak
develops across the region and a weak cold front slowly moves
across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

Precipitable water values are anticipated to approach the 99th
percentile around 2 inches this weekend. Forecast rainfall amounts
have dropped again in this latest forecast cycle with amounts
averaging near 1 inch towards the MO/KY border to 1.5 inches or
greater along and south of I-40. Severe weather is not anticipated
at this time with marginal instability and weak overall shear
expected. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind this front
for early next week with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees
with lows mostly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR. Southerly winds will pick up a bit today, and gusts near
20 kts are expected at JBR this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A gradual improvement in minimum relative humidity is forecast
Wednesday and Thursday, in advance of wetting rainfall Friday
through early Sunday. Dry and seasonal early October weather is
expected early next week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...SJM