Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
554 FXUS64 KMEG 221138 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon, with areas along and west of the Mississippi River having the greatest chance of rainfall. A few storms could be severe, with damaging winds and perhaps large hail. - More bearable conditions will be in place this weekend with highs on Sunday ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s. - Northwest flow aloft will keep rain chances in the forecast each day next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Shower and thunderstorm chances are increasing Saturday afternoon and evening as a weak disturbance moves across the southern Plains. The latest CAMs are in better agreement with storms firing over south central Kansas in the early afternoon hours. This activity would dive southeast towards the Mid-South, posing a damaging wind threat. However, a few caveats exist to this forecast. First, if convective initiation occurs further south, upper level steering may keep storms to our west. In addition, the presence of dry air aloft may discourage storm longevity. Regardless, a few areas of the Mid-South can expect showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening with the potential for damaging winds. Outside of rain chances, the weekend will be much more bearable thanks to lower dewpoints and northerly surface winds. Sunday will be our "coolest" day with highs ranging from the upper 80s near Kentucky to the mid 90s in the Mississippi Delta. For the upcoming week, strong upper level ridging will build over the Rockies. Ensembles remain consistent in several shortwaves ejecting out of this region starting Monday. These disturbances will follow a northwest flow pattern into the Mid-South, keeping rain chances almost daily through the end of the week. While it remains too early to pinpoint areas at risk for MCS development, the upper level pattern is suggesting a high probability of at least one MCS next week. If this manifests, damaging winds will be the primary concern. The good news is that the northwest flow will keep us on the cooler side of things. The probability for heat indices reaching 105 degrees or greater next week is low, around 15 percent. This may change in future forecast updates, but for now expect a slightly cooler week with daily chances of rain. ANS && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Hi-res models are in good agreement with moving the disturbance causing storms across the Plains this morning into the Mid South later today. Storms will likely weaken upon their approach and then redevelop across the Mid-South later this afternoon as instability builds. Timing is still quite variable, so kept the PROB30 TSRA groups quite broad. The PROB30 groups were continued at JBR, MEM, and MKL and added to TUP. Winds will be light and variable this morning, becoming NW at 6-10 kts this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A few areas of fog cannot be ruled out near the Tennessee River tonight, but any reduction in visibility should quickly resolve after sunrise. Otherwise, relative humidity values around 40 percent will be in place through Sunday. Fire weather concerns will remain low due to light 20 ft winds and wetting rain chances returning next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...SJM