Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
985 FXUS64 KMEG 231710 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1210 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase late tonight into Monday, with no organized severe weather expected. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through midweek. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected across the Mid-South for most of the week, but extreme heat is not expected. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A large area of high pressure remains parked over the Desert Southwest with the Mid-South on the eastern periphery. A cold frontal passage that occurred yesterday has cooled temperatures nicely with temperatures running 1-5 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. With a prevailing easterly wind, dry air aloft, expect a pleasant and dry day across the region with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with comfortable humidity levels. Late tonight into early Monday morning, shower and thunderstorm chances will return as a shortwave impinges from the WNW. Due to the timing of the wave, QPF amounts, and advancing cloud cover, there is quite a spread in guidance for projected high temperatures tomorrow. Also due to the aforementioned factors, unless rapid clearing occurs, severe weather should not be a concern, but a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out particularly in the afternoon. Probabilities of receiving 1" or more of rainfall are isolated, but best chances appear to be south and west of the Memphis metro. Tuesday will be a bit warmer and more humid as a warm front lifts north. This will bring increased showers and thunderstorms in its wake. Current probabilities from the LREF show low (20% or less) chances of severe weather ingredients being present, but we will continue to monitor as the forecast evolves. The warm front will not traverse quickly or make it very far north into southern Kentucky, so expect another hot and humid day on Wednesday with isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances. A `cold` front, associated with a low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes, will sweep across the region on Thursday. While the weekend looks mostly dry following the front, there is no expected seasonal relief, as above-normal temperatures are forecast to persist through the end of August. DNM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. The latest hi-res guidance is generating a medium to high signal for SHRAs and isolated TSRAs developing overnight and trekking SSE from JBR towards MEM near daybreak. Due to increased precipitation probabilities, both JBR and MEM have been updated to include VCSH and PROB30 groups. Both MKL and TUP are expected to remain rain-free, with a persistent mid-level cloud deck. Northerly winds this afternoon are forecast to shift easterly tonight and then become light and variable for the remainder of the period. AC3 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Minimum relative humidity will average 35 to 45 percent today. Rain chances increase tonight into Monday morning. Fog should not be a concern due to advancing cloud cover and elevated surface winds. Relative humidity will remain high as rain chances persist through most of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...AC3