Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Versions:
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FNUS74 KMEG 020324
FWSMEG
Spot Forecast for DUNCAN LAKE BURN...Tennessee Division of Forestry
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1024 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on October 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Lower relative humidity will prevail over West Tennessee Thursday
afternoon compared to Wednesday. Light easterly 20 foot winds at
sunrise Thursday will veer to the southeast by midmorning and
remain light through the afternoon. 20 foot winds will likely
become calm by sunset Thursday evening. There is no chance of
wetting rainfall on Thursday or Friday.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of thunder...2 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Dewpoint............61.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).1700-5500 ft MSL.
Mixing height (m)...518-1676 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 14 mph shifting to the southeast
around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.South around 6 meters/second shifting to the
southeast around 3 meters/second late in the
afternoon.
2000 ft winds.......South 12 to 14 mph becoming southeast 5 to 9
mph in the afternoon.
5000 ft winds.......South 6 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast 5
to 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3100 knot-ft).
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P
Sky (%).........5 6 4 5 5 7 2 2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............77 80 83 85 86 86 87 86
Dewpoint........62 61 61 60 60 60 60 61
RH..............60 52 48 42 41 41 40 44
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 8 10 10 10 7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 2.7 3.6 4.3 4.9 5.5 5.4 4.3
Mx ht msl (kft).1.7 2.7 3.6 4.3 4.9 5.5 5.4 4.3
Mix hgt (km)....0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.3
Transp wind dir.S S S S SE SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.14 13 9 7 7 7 7 7
Trans wind dir..S S S S SE SE SE SE
Trans spd (m/s).6 6 4 3 3 3 3 3
2000 ft wnd dir.S S S S SE SE SE SE
2000 ft wnd spd.14 12 9 7 6 5 6 7
5000 ft wnd dir.S S S SE SE SE SE E
5000 ft wnd spd.10 8 7 6 5 6 6 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 5 5 4 5 5 5 4
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of thunder...2 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Dewpoint............60 decreasing to 56 after 3 am.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).400-800 ft MSL.
Mixing height (m)...122-244 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 13 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Southeast 4 to 6 meters/second.
2000 ft winds.......Southeast 9 to 12 mph increasing to south 20 to
21 mph.
5000 ft winds.......Southeast 9 to 13 mph increasing to 13 to 16
mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft).
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID
Sky (%).........1 2 3 4 7 8 7 8 9 9 9 11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............83 79 73 71 70 68 67 66 65 64 62 62
Dewpoint........62 62 62 62 61 61 61 60 59 58 57 55
RH..............49 56 68 73 73 78 81 81 81 81 82 79
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
20 FT wind gust.7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Mx ht msl (kft).0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Mix hgt (km)....0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S
Transp wind spd.8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 12 13
Trans wind dir..E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S
Trans spd (m/s).4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6
2000 ft wnd dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S
2000 ft wnd spd.9 12 14 15 16 17 18 18 20 20 21 21
5000 ft wnd dir.E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
5000 ft wnd spd.9 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 15 15 14 13
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of thunder...2 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Dewpoint............55 increasing to 58 in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
the morning, then becoming light early in the
afternoon becoming east around 5 mph late in
the afternoon becoming light.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).400-5100 ft MSL.
Mixing height (m)...122-1554 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 12 mph shifting to the east
around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.East around 4 meters/second shifting to the
southeast 4 to 5 meters/second early in the
morning, then shifting to the east around 4
meters/second late in the afternoon.
5000 ft winds.......Southeast 8 to 12 mph shifting to the east 12
to 13 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (600 knot-ft).
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 1 AM 4 AM 7 AM 10 AM
Sky (%).........10 2 4 3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0
Temp............61 67 79 84
Dewpoint........54 55 57 59
RH..............78 66 47 42
20 FT wind......SE 3G10 SE 5G10 SE 3G8 E 5G8
Mix hgt (ft)....400 1300 3500 4800
Mx ht msl (ft)..400 1300 3500 4800
Mix hgt (m).....120 400 1070 1460
Transport wind..S 10 S 10 SE 8 E 9
Tran wind (m/s).S 4 S 4 SE 4 E 4
5000 ft wind....SE 12 SE 7 E 8 E 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 2 4 6
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...Baker
Requested by...Jon McFarland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2522845.1/MEG
.DELDT 10/01/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jon.mcfarland@tn.gov