768
FXUS62 KMFL 062245
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
645 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 644 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

 - An active weather pattern remains in place into early this week
   as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
   develop each day. The strongest storms could contain heavy
   downpours and frequent lightning.

 - Heavy downpours with high rainfall rates combined with slow
   moving storms will increase the risk for localized flooding
   especially over the urban and poor drainage areas.

 - High temperatures will generally rise into the lower 90s across
   most of South Florida through this week, creating widespread
   Moderate HeatRisk.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Mid/upper-level troughing continues to dig south over the Eastern
Seaboard into the western Atlantic today, pushing central CONUS
ridging further west. At the surface, South Florida sits between
high pressure over the Gulf and the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a
surface frontal boundary pressing into the Southeast U.S. will
continue to nudge the western Atlantic ridge axis southward. This
will result in a shifting wind pattern across South Florida today,
with light southeasterly flow veering to the south-southwest. Under
weak synoptic forcing aloft, convective activity will be once again
largely driven by sea-breeze and mesoscale boundaries, with the
Atlantic sea breeze remaining pinned closer to the East Coast.

Water vapor imagery confirms deep tropical moisture continuing to
pool across the region, with satellite-derived PWATs running above
normal at over 2.1 inches. However, both NBM and ensemble guidance
indicate the Gulf high will push slightly drier air into the Lake
Okeechobee region today, lowering PWATs closer to climatological
norms across the northern half of the peninsula. With ample moisture
still available, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
possible again today, primarily favoring areas south of I-75 where
moisture will remain maximized. Initial activity is expected to
develop over the Gulf waters and the southern tip of the peninsula
before shifting toward the interior and East Coast metro areas from
early afternoon through the evening. Rainfall accumulations of 1-2
inches are possible across Miami-Dade and Broward, where storm
development is expected to begin earlier in the afternoon, with
localized totals of 3-4 inches possible from slow-moving or training
cells. Urban flooding remains the primary hazard, alongside frequent
lightning and localized gusty winds.

A similar pattern persists into Monday as the mid/upper-level trough
lifts away and the surface frontal boundary stalls over northern
Florida. Deep tropical moisture will return region-wide, with south-
southwesterly flow focusing the highest shower and thunderstorm
coverage over the eastern half of the peninsula.

High temperatures will remain slightly above normal in the low 90s
across the region through the short term period. Overnight lows will
range from the upper 70s along the coasts to the low/mid 70s over
the interior. A moderate HeatRisk continues across all urban areas
each day, mitigated locally where afternoon storms bring temporary
relief.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Central CONUS upper-level ridging will build toward the U.S. East
Coast through midweek, while the stalled surface frontal boundary
over northern Florida gradually washes out. Tuesday will serve as a
transition day for South Florida as surface high pressure over the
western Atlantic builds back towards the peninsula, re-establishing
south-southeasterly steering flow. Model guidance remains in good
agreement that above-normal PWATs will persist across the region,
supporting a continued unsettled pattern through Tuesday. While
organized severe weather is not expected, abundant moisture will
support high rainfall rates and heavy downpours in stronger cells,
keeping localized urban and low-lying flooding as the primary
concern.

The western Atlantic high pressure is expected to re-establish full
control over the region by Wednesday, marking a return to a more
typical late-summer easterly flow regime. Drier air filtering into
the mid-levels will lower PWATs back toward seasonal norms, helping
keep overall convective coverage closer to average through Thursday.
Convective activity will remain sea-breeze and mesoscale driven,
with morning showers and isolated storms pushing across the East
Coast before focusing inland and over SW Florida through the
afternoon and early evening.

Another mid/upper-level trough and associated surface frontal
boundary will dig south along the Eastern Seaboard by the end of the
week, nudging the western Atlantic ridge axis southward once again.
Model guidance diverges on how far south this boundary will dig and
the impact it will have on local weather patterns. However, this
feature is expected to lift away quickly heading into the weekend.

High temperatures will rise into the lower 90s across most areas,
with mid-90s possible across interior SW Florida. Overnight lows
will range from the upper 70s/lower 80s along the coasts to the
low/mid 70s over the interior. Reduced convective coverage will
increase the probability of localized Major HeatRisk across the
urban corridors during the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR is expected to prevail for most of the period. Remaining SHRA
will taper off by 01-02Z with light winds overnight. Light winds
will be present until the sea breezes kick in tomorrow, which is not
expected until 18-19Z when the east coast gets SE winds around 5-7
kts and KAPF sees SW winds at the same speeds. Scattered SHRA/TSRA
expected primarily after 18-19Z, but KMIA/KTMB could see some SHRA
activity between 12-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A light to gentle southeasterly breeze will turn south-
southwesterly today across all local waters and persist through the
early week. The exception to this will be across the Atlantic
waters, where winds may back southeasterly each afternoon as an
Atlantic sea breeze develops. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day across all local waters.
Locally hazardous winds and rough seas may occur near and around any
storm. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally
remain at 2 feet or less through the early portion of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  91  79  90 /  10  60  30  70
West Kendall     77  91  77  90 /  10  60  30  80
Opa-Locka        78  91  78  91 /  10  60  30  70
Homestead        78  91  77  91 /  20  50  40  70
Fort Lauderdale  78  90  78  90 /  10  60  30  70
N Ft Lauderdale  78  91  79  91 /  10  60  40  70
Pembroke Pines   78  91  78  90 /  10  60  30  70
West Palm Beach  77  92  77  91 /  10  70  40  70
Boca Raton       77  91  77  90 /  10  70  40  70
Naples           78  90  77  91 /  10  40  40  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM....DPB
AVIATION...Redman