141
FXUS62 KMFL 021759
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1259 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1257 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

  - Flood watch remains in effect for all of South Florida as the
    potential for additional heavy rainfall and flooding
    continues.

  - Minor to Moderate coastal flooding expected during times of
    high tide.

  - Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the
    Atlantic coast.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...
Issued at 1202 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

The aforementioned shortwave across the eastern Gulf continues to
enhance upper level divergence across South Florida early this
afternoon, enhancing low level convergence and facilitating a
gradual spatial expansion of shower and thunderstorm activity
across the region. 17z Mesoanalysis in tandem with GOES east
imagery indicates a corridor of enhanced surface heating across
the southeastern half of the Florida Peninsula, resulting in the
development of a differential heating boundary across the
peninsula with the influence of sprawling cold pools, 1) across
southwestern Florida and the 2) second more pronounced cold pool
just north of Lake Okeechobee and across the majority of the
Treasure Coast. Across southeastern Florida, diurnal heating has
resulted in temperatures in the low to mid 80s with a lull in
activity across the majority of metro Miami-Dade and Broward
counties. SBCAPE and MUCAPE analysis indicates enough instability
remains in the low level boundary layer for additional convection
along and to the south of mesoscale boundaries with a foci in
near-term activity across Palm Beach County and the Lake
Okeechobee region. While 500mb flow is out of a more southerly
component today, as opposed to the inverse 1km (easterly)/6km
(westerly) orientation that led to efficient coastal convergence
(and a high- end maxima of 15+" of rainfall across Palm Beach
County) yesterday, slow movement of showers and thunderstorms and
upstream growth (backbuilding) could re- aggravate urban flooding
across areas that remain completely saturated/inundated from a
soil moisture perspective. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all
of South Florida through 7PM this evening with a close eye being
kept on the latest trends with radar coverage and rainfall totals
as the afternoon progresses for any need of watch extension.

Recent ACARS soundings from FLL/MIA depict some residual CIN and
drier air in the vertical column that may act to suppress more
robust convection across metro Miami-Dade and Broward in the near
term. This residual inhibition and drier air in the column may be
largely responsible for the break in activity that has been
observed for much of today across most east coast locales.
Although that trend has recently come to a close across northern
and central Palm Beach County where convection continues to back-
build along locales that certainly don`t need any additional
precipitation. Given the forcing aloft and the pocket of residual
instability across these areas that have received ample surface
heating, additional showers and thunderstorms could still
materialize across the eastern half of South Florida for the
remainder of today. The 12z HREF LPMM has a widespread 1-2" across
most of the northeastern half of South Florida through 7am on
Wednesday. The threat of isolated higher rainfall amounts greater
than 3-5" inches remains possible along the east coast metro and
the Weather Prediction Center maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 of
4) of excessive rainfall for the entire east coast of South
Florida for the remainder of today. Short fused Flood Advisories
and Flash Flood Warnings may be needed if heavy rainfall falls
over areas that received several inches of rainfall within the
past 24 hours.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Water vapor imagery and model analysis fields show an elongated
shortwave extending from the southeast Gulf, through the Southeast
and into the Mid-Atlantic where it connects in with the northern
stream flow. There`s very little surface reflection to this upper
low, with the latest WPC surface analysis depicting high pressure
centered over the Mid-Atlantic/NW Atlantic, with its western
reaches covering much of the eastern CONUS. Locally, we remain
under easterly flow at the base of the ridge with a coastal trough
still established down the east coast of Florida. Additionally, an
MCV is likely still present across Central Florida as a result of
yesterday`s storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

We enter another very low predictability period today with the
environment primed to produce more heavy rainfall should a surface
focus emerge. CAMs have struggled to identify the ongoing precip
pattern and thus low confidence exists regarding their future
predictions. Some of the CAMs that at least more closely resemble
the ongoing pattern would suggest banding features along the east
coast where upslope flow coincides with mesoscale boundaries
through mid-afternoon. They also depict convection in the SE Gulf,
associated with the upper low, moving across south Florida through
the afternoon and evening. As the storms from the Gulf reach the
east coast, a period of slow moving storms producing heavy
rainfall will be possible. Forecast rain amounts look very
similar to yesterday, with common amounts of 1 to 3 inches where
showers and storms occur. Scattered locations around south Florida
may see closer to 3 to 5 inches of rain. The more isolated high
end amounts have the potential to peak around 6 to 9 inches. These
amounts could accumulate rather quickly, on the order of 2 to 4
hours. The Flood Watch will continue through today and has been
expanded over all of South Florida due to low confidence in where
the heaviest rain will setup.

As the base of the elongated trough cuts off over the SE Gulf
today, it will be slow to move out of the region and likely have
to wait for an approaching northern stream frontal system to nudge
it through south Florida. This will likely mean a continued wet
pattern through Tuesday. However, the good news is that dry mid-
level air, associated with the part of the shortwave that will
advect into the Atlantic, may result in lower PWATs and less
forcing. This means an overall lower top-end to expected rain
amounts. Expect common rainfall amounts on Tuesday closer to 1-2"
with localized higher amounts in the 2-4" range. Not nothing, but
better than Sunday and Today. It also look as though most of the
rainfall on Tuesday will be confined to the east coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

With the aforementioned mid-week frontal system, models are
struggling with whether the shortwave cuts off and loses latitude
from the northern stream. In solutions where it cuts off the
shortwave it has a much slower progression across the CONUS. This
will ultimately influence when/if we get frontal passage across
south Florida late this week. Regardless, models tend to keep the
frontal passage pretty dry, this far south, and also have very
little signal for any anomalous sensible weather fields in the
extended range.

The slow nudge of the frontal system will displace the ridge axis
further north. This will remove the direct easterly component and
calm winds a bit. Both of these results mean that we`ll probably
have less precipitation across south Florida from mid-week onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Increasing SHRA/TSRA may result in bouts of sub MVFR cigs/vis at
terminals this afternoon/evening. Gusty erratic winds may occur
with any SHRA/TSRA that directly impacts a terminal. Winds are
forecast to lessen after sunset with a continuation of SHRA/TSRA
across the region through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters
through the early portion of the week as a fresh to strong easterly
breeze remains in place combined with a lingering northeasterly
swell. Across the Gulf waters, a moderate to fresh easterly breeze
will continue today before gradually starting to diminish on
Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue across all local waters through the early portion of the
week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

The onshore flow and elevated winds and seas will keep a High Risk
for rip currents across Atlantic beaches well into this week.
Large breakers are expected through at least this morning across
Broward and Palm beaches, with a high surf advisory in effect
for these locations. Higher than usual tides will also create
elevated water levels near the coast. Dangerous beach and swim
conditions are expected through mid-week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 327 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Water levels are forecast to gradually start climbing into
Moderate flood stage again by tonight`s high tide as we start to
head closer and closer to the New Moon on Nov 9. Hopefully, by
mid-week, we`ll be able to remove the strong onshore wind
component and pull back some of the heavy rain potential as
astronomical tide levels start to rise again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  84  75  84 /  60  70  40  60
West Kendall     75  85  75  85 /  50  60  30  60
Opa-Locka        75  85  75  85 /  60  70  40  60
Homestead        75  85  75  86 /  60  60  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  74  83  75  83 /  70  70  60  60
N Ft Lauderdale  75  83  75  84 /  70  60  60  60
Pembroke Pines   74  85  74  86 /  60  70  50  60
West Palm Beach  74  83  74  84 /  60  60  50  60
Boca Raton       75  83  75  83 /  70  60  60  60
Naples           71  85  72  85 /  20  60  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-670.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...Hadi