644
FXUS62 KMFL 112245
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
645 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 642 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

 - A Heat Advisory is in effect today for all of South Florida.

 - Heat remains the primary hazard through next weekend.

 - Greatest rain chances for all of south Florida on Thursday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Deep layer ridging will prevail across the Deep South and Florida
over the next several days. The periodic amplification of the
eastern CONUS trough will play a role in the position of the ridge
axis which will have implications for low-level flow patterns and
temperature forecasts.

Over the next few days, global ensembles generally agree that
while the core of the northern stream will remain mostly north of
the CONUS, weak shortwaves will advect southeast through the
Plains and Midwest. These waves will result in a slight
amplification to the eastern CONUS trough Wed. into Thurs. This
will push the ridge axis from over Florida into the Gulf.

By the end of the week, the combination of a shortwave moving into
the western CONUS and another moving through the Northeast will
sharply amplify the ridge across then central and southern CONUS,
including the Deep South and Florida. While there is quite a bit
of disagreement in the ensembles regarding the timing and
intensity of the Northeast shortwave, the general pattern across
our region remains similar regardless.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

It`s definitely hot across South Florida today, with Heat Advisories
along the entire region this afternoon. At times it may feel like
Icarus flying too close to the sun, and it may seem like a Herculean
task to combat these dangerously hot conditions. However, there is
no reason to be `playing with fire` while spending time outdoors, as
there are several simple solutions one can take to protect
themselves from hot temperatures. Drink plenty of water, even if you
don`t feel thirsty, and use cool, damp towels on your skin to help
regulate body temperature. The thought of a nice crisp beer may seem
like a siren`s song, but it is important to limit your intake of
alcoholic, caffeinated, or sugary drinks while outdoors as they will
lead to dehydration. Remember to wear loose, lightweight, and light-
colored clothing. It may seem like a Sisyphean task to have to re-
apply sunscreen every two hours, but protection from strong
ultraviolet rays will make one less suceptible to heat related
illness. Failing to take any heat safety precautions may open a
pandora`s box of issues down the line, increasing the risk of heat
exhaustion and heat stroke. Confusion, dizziness, nausea, and
weakness are all signs of heat stroke. If symptoms do not improve
after moving to a cool area and sipping water, seek medical
attention immediately.

Current observations indicate that heat indices across
the region are between 105 and 110 F, creating widespread Major
HeatRisk across all urban areas. The threat of vehicular heat stroke
also hangs over like the Sword of Damocles. Never leave kids or pets
unattended - LOOK before you LOCK! Temperatures inside vehicles can
quickly become deadly, often climbing 30 degrees higher than the
ambient outside temperature. Maximum forecast temperatures are
expected to be in the low to mid 90s for most of the region, which
is slightly above average for this time of year. These conditions
are nothing too out of the ordinary for most Floridians, but heat is
often the Achille`s heel for many as it is the deadliest weather
hazard in America according to the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention. Therefore, to drive the point home while not sounding
like an echo chamber, remember to take frequent breaks, stay
hydrated, and check in on friends and family during these extended
heat events.

Outside of heat, isolated to scattered showers and storms will
mainly focus along the Gulf breeze over interior and Southwest
Florida. The 12z MFL sounding and recent ACARs observations from
KMIA show a very pronounced dry layer between 850 mb and 300 mb,
with PWATs near the 10th percentile for this time of year. Dry air
and subsidence aloft should greatly limit chances of precipitation
this afternoon, so there is no apple of discord among ensemble
guidance for this afternoon`s shower activity. Much of this drier
air is attributed to Saharan dust, whose odyssey adventure has taken
it from northern Africa all the way to the Gulf. Model soundings
seem to indicate that some better moisture will make its way into
the region on Wednesday, so PoPs have climbed into the 40 to 60%
range areawide for Wednesday afternoon. Easterly flow will weaken
slightly, so most storms will form along sea breeze and outflow
boundary interactions over interior South Florida. The drier mid
level air may actually act as a Trojan Horse in this wetter
environment, and instead of limiting convection, it may actually
enhance the potential for a few strong downdrafts (low
confidence). Overall, the main threats will be frequent lightning,
gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall from a few isolated
stronger cores.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Thursday will probably be the `coolest` and `wettest` of the
period as the ridge axis will be furthest west and will be
awaiting the northern stream shortwave to begin the amplification
of the ridge pattern. It`ll still be hot, with highs generally in
the middle 90s and heat indices nearing advisory levels, though
there will probably be fewer upper 90 degree readings. With at
least some component of northerly flow expected on Thursday, we`ll
likely see the breezes pinned closer to the coast. However, we`ll
also be more likely to see storms advect into the region from
central Florida late in the day. Overall, coverage is expected to
be highest on Thursday. The end of the week and into the weekend
will feature the presence of the SAL once again and anomalous
heights. Essentially another period of warmer and drier than
normal conditions are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Storm activity will dissipate after sunset, with winds becoming
light and variable. Winds will pick up out of the southeast
tomorrow once again for all eastern sites, while a Gulf breeze
will shift winds west at KAPF. Scattered storms expected to
develop along interior South Florida. Only had enough confidence
to include VCTS at KDJT, KFXE, and KTMB.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Light winds and low seas are expected through the week. Daily
wind increases to around 10 knots are expected in the seabreeze
zone, as well as a light chop. Shower and thunderstorm activity will
remain fairly isolated and mostly limited to the morning hours for
the east coast and the evening for the Gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  93  79  92 /   0  40  10  30
West Kendall     77  93  75  92 /   0  50  10  40
Opa-Locka        79  94  80  93 /   0  40  10  40
Homestead        78  93  78  92 /   0  40  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  79  92  80  91 /   0  40  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  80  93  79  92 /   0  40  10  40
Pembroke Pines   80  93  79  92 /   0  40  10  40
West Palm Beach  78  94  78  93 /   0  60  10  50
Boca Raton       79  92  78  91 /   0  50  10  40
Naples           79  91  78  92 /  20  40  10  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...NMP