388
FXUS62 KMFL 110655
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
255 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

 - A Heat Advisory is in effect today for all of South Florida.

 - Heat remains the primary hazard through next weekend.

 - Greatest rain chances for all of south Florida on Thursday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Deep layer ridging will prevail across the Deep South and Florida
over the next several days. The periodic amplification of the
eastern CONUS trough will play a role in the position of the ridge
axis which will have implications for low-level flow patterns and
temperature forecasts.

Over the next few days, global ensembles generally agree that
while the core of the northern stream will remain mostly north of
the CONUS, weak shortwaves will advect southeast through the
Plains and Midwest. These waves will result in a slight
amplification to the eastern CONUS trough Wed. into Thurs. This
will push the ridge axis from over Florida into the Gulf.

By the end of the week, the combination of a shortwave moving into
the western CONUS and another moving through the Northeast will
sharply amplify the ridge across then central and southern CONUS,
including the Deep South and Florida. While there is quite a bit
of disagreement in the ensembles regarding the timing and
intensity of the Northeast shortwave, the general pattern across
our region remains similar regardless.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The aforementioned ridge, which ranks near the top end of climo
for this time of year, will also result in deep layer temperatures
well above normal. And while PWATs are generally lower than
climatology due to the presence of the Saharan Air Layer, the
low-level seabreeze flow will result in relatively high dewpoints
along the coasts. Though it will be drier across the interior, actual
temperatures will be higher without the `relief` of a seabreeze.
This all means that we`re likely to reach heat advisory criteria
(> 105-108) across all of south Florida, either due to higher
humidity or higher temperatures.

The westward advection of the ridge axis and west/south shift of
the SAL may result in actual and apparent temperatures a few
degrees cooler on Wednesday, though we may still flirt with heat
advisory conditions at least for a few areas across south Florida.

As far as rain chances are concerned, the background easterly flow
will result in showers/storms being most likely across the
interior in the afternoon, shifting towards the west coast in the
evening. Though this pattern is expected, the SAL will likely act
to reduce coverage and intensity across all of South Florida both
afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Thursday will probably be the `coolest` and `wettest` of the
period as the ridge axis will be furthest west and will be
awaiting the northern stream shortwave to begin the amplification
of the ridge pattern. It`ll still be hot, with highs generally in
the middle 90s and heat indices nearing advisory levels, though
there will probably be fewer upper 90 degree readings. With at
least some component of northerly flow expected on Thursday, we`ll
likely see the breezes pinned closer to the coast. However, we`ll
also be more likely to see storms advect into the region from
central Florida late in the day. Overall, coverage is expected to
be highest on Thursday. The end of the week and into the weekend
will feature the presence of the SAL once again and anomalous
heights. Essentially another period of warmer and drier than
normal conditions are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR will prevail through the TAF, with storms remaining mostly
inland from the terminals. Light easterly flow will prevail,
except in the afternoon at APF when flow shifts westerly with the
onset of the seabreeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Light winds and low seas are expected through the week. Daily
wind increases to around 10 knots are expected in the seabreeze
zone, as well as a light chop. Shower and thunderstorm activity will
remain fairly isolated and mostly limited to the morning hours for
the east coast and the evening for the Gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  80  93  79 /  10   0  40  10
West Kendall     93  76  93  76 /  10  10  50  10
Opa-Locka        93  79  94  79 /  10   0  40  10
Homestead        92  78  92  79 /   0   0  30   0
Fort Lauderdale  91  79  91  80 /  10   0  30  10
N Ft Lauderdale  92  79  92  79 /  10   0  30  10
Pembroke Pines   92  79  93  79 /  10   0  30  10
West Palm Beach  93  78  93  78 /  10   0  40  10
Boca Raton       91  79  92  78 /  10   0  30  10
Naples           92  79  91  79 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...Harrigan