704
FXUS62 KMFL 130741
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
341 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

 - A Heat Advisory is in effect today for all of South Florida.

 - Heat remains the primary hazard through next week.

 - Very minor high tide flooding possible along the Palm Beach and
   Broward coasts with the New Moon cycle through tonight.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Global ensembles are in agreement regarding the synoptic pattern
over the next few days. The eastward shifting and amplifying upper
pattern will build the ridge center from the Gulf into the Deep
South and eventually spread through the Southeast and link back up
with the subtropical ridge in the western Atlantic. A similar
pattern will take shape in the lower troposphere, with the Gulf
ridge opening up into the subtropical ridge and this will act to
transition the FL peninsula from light northerly flow back to more
easterly flow today through tomorrow. As the easterly flow becomes
re-established on Friday, a remnant SAL previously held back in
the Atlantic will advect across Florida ahead of a weak tropical
wave.

Ensembles are still working to come into agreement on a solution
beyond day 3 as it relates to the shortwave approaching the
western CONUS and the low over Quebec. However, as discussed last
night, these differences would primarily influence the forecast on
the periphery of the full CONUS ridge and not so much near the
core of the ridge where South Florida will reside. Our forecast
challenges will be more closely tied to slight timing differences
in the advection of a tropical wave across south Florida and the
subsequent arrival of another stout SAL. Behind the SAL early next
week, a gradual return of low-level moisture is expected as a
frontal boundary associated with a northern stream wave sags into
the Southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

The main concern in the short term and beyond will be the
potential for heat impacts. The combination of the building
mid/upper ridge and the warm SAL spreading through the lower
levels will keep heat advisory conditions likely each afternoon.
With plenty of moisture around today, advisory conditions seem
like more of a sure thing, especially with the potential for
storms to move away from the east coast metros through the day. On
Friday, the remnant SAL may result in some lower dewpoints through
mixing, but the upper ridge will be stronger and the low-level air
will be warmer. This will likely mean higher actual temperatures,
but with easterly flow re-established we still expect apparent
temperatures to reach advisory levels for at least portions of
south Florida.

As far as convection is concerned, today will be very similar to
yesterday with the seabreezes pinned in weak northerly flow
(though veering). Expect storms to spread slowly south along the
seabreezes, become driven more by outflow, and consolidate across
the southern half of South Florida late in the day. The main
difference will be that the consolidation may take place a bit
further west as the easterly flow starts to take hold. Much lower
rain chances are expected on Friday as the aforementioned dry air
overspreads. Any storms that do develop will likely be nearer to
the west coast where the easterly flow converges on the Gulf
breeze, and where the dry air may not be as dominant.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Friday night into Saturday a weak tropical wave will advect
through the Straits and result in an increase in moisture across
all of south Florida. There`s still some uncertainty in the
timing and subsequently how much rain we receive. A more
nocturnal passage would likely limit the intensity of storms,
while a slower passage could mean that the moisture arrives during
peak instability on Saturday afternoon. Either way, Friday night
into Saturday has the potential to be wet. Late Saturday and
through Sunday a strong SAL will overspread and preclude any
convection. Early next week, easterly flow will remain intact, and
as mentioned above moisture will slowly increase. This will
likely result in a gradual increase in convective coverage each
day, and mostly focused across the interior and southwest FL.

Heat advisory conditions will persist this weekend through next
week for at least portions of south Florida. We`ll likely get the
lowest dewpoints on Sunday, but the low-level airmass will be at
its warmest and most likely offset and moisture reduction as it
relates to apparent temperatures. As moisture returns early next
week and the upper ridge remains anomalously strong, heat indices
will likely exceed 105-108 each day.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Outside of storms, VFR will prevail through the TAF under
relatively light onshore flow. Seabreeze storms will be most
likely across Palm Beach and Broward counties, and then further
southwest into the interior of south Florida. Thus, handled
DJT/FXE/FLL with TEMPOs and PROB30s for the remaining terminals.
Storms should dissipate within a few hours of sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Gentle winds and low seas are expected through today, then
increasing to moderate easterly winds Friday and Saturday as a
tropical wave moves across the local waters. Daily wind increases to
around 10-15 knots are expected in the seabreeze zone, as well as a
light chop. Showers and thunderstorms will remain fairly isolated
and mostly limited to the morning hours for the east coast and the
evening for the Gulf, except Friday night and Saturday when the
passage of the tropical wave will result in an increase in showers
and thunderstorms over all local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  81  93  82 /  30  10  10  40
West Kendall     92  79  93  78 /  50  10  10  40
Opa-Locka        93  81  93  82 /  40  10  10  30
Homestead        92  80  92  81 /  30  10  10  50
Fort Lauderdale  91  81  91  82 /  30  10  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  92  81  92  82 /  30  10  10  30
Pembroke Pines   93  81  92  81 /  30  10  10  30
West Palm Beach  93  79  93  80 /  50  10  10  20
Boca Raton       92  81  91  81 /  30  10  10  30
Naples           92  78  93  78 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...Harrigan