992
FXUS62 KMFL 242256
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
656 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

 - Coastal showers this morning, then scattered storms this
   afternoon into early evening favoring inland and SW FL.

 - Increasing rain chances this weekend into early next week.

 - Heat index values exceeding 100 degrees expected each day
   through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Forecast scenario for the rest of the short term remains on track
with no significant changes required for the afternoon update.

Sfc high pressure continues to establish over the E Gulf waters as
the remnants of Bertha linger around Texas, and a long stationary
front remains draped across the SE CONUS and into the W Atl waters.
Aloft, ensembles and global model solutions show good agreement in
depicting overall troughiness developing over much of the E CONUS.
This synoptic setup will result in generally weak pressure gradients
over SoFlo, keeping low ESE winds and allowing for sea breeze
boundary and outflow interactions to become focal points for deeper
convection and thunderstorm activity.

Radar data continues to show clusters of showers with embedded
thunderstorms streaming from the Atlantic coastal waters into the
eastern half of SoFlo. Late morning showers favored mostly Palm
Beach and northern Broward counties, but shower and thunderstorm
activity is now shifting into the western half as the weak Gulf
breeze collides with the prevailing easterly flow. 12Z MFL
sounding data showed lingering tropical moisture remains in place
across the area with PWATs around 2.3" and an overall wet vertical
profile to 7KM. Current POPs/Wx grid coverage seems reasonable,
thus no significant changes are required attm. Max POps of 70-80%
continue to favor interior/western areas, especially coastal
Collier and interior Glades counties. Main hazards will be
lightning strikes, strong wind gusts and potential for localized
flooding.

Although a similar weather pattern will continue on Saturday, the
low level winds will likely remain light or even calm at times.
Meanwhile, flow at the mid-levels will acquire a westerly flow
component by the afternoon hours, which will likely shift the best
chances of rain eastward and closer to the Atlantic metro areas.

Expect low temps tonight to remain warm over coastal areas, upper
70s to low 80s, and low to mid 80s interior areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

As we look towards the end of the weekend and into next week, upper
level ridging will build into the western US, while troughing
deepens over the eastern US and western Atlantic. This will allow a
series of fronts to drop down from the northern Plains towards the
Southeast US coast before dissipating. A stream of enhanced deeper
level moisture will set up across South FL the end of this weekend
into next week as it gets squeezed between the trough in the eastern
US and high pressure in the central Atlantic. Another noticeable
difference during this time period is that the low level flow across
South FL will become more westerly starting Sunday and lasting
through at least the early part of next week. This will bring the
focus of convection each afternoon into early evening more into the
east coast metro, resulting in higher than normal PoPs each day.
While the rainfall is certainly welcome news given the ongoing
drought conditions across the area, will need to be on the lookout
for localized urban and poor drainage flooding each day.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal,
with highs each day generally in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices of
105-110 will be possible each day, but with the increased rainfall
chances it`ll be tough to reach criteria for at least 2 hours each
day, so any hazard decisions will likely be made on a day by day
basis.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Periods of shower activity may still affect APF until around 02Z.
Generally L/V flow for the rest of tonight with VFR prevailing
after 02Z. Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms with
possible periods of MVFR/IFR vis/cigs after 16Z, including the
Atl terminals. Winds shift to a more SSE light flow after 15Z,
except APF with a westerly breeze in the afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Light easterly winds are expected today across the Atlantic with
variable winds over the Gulf. Winds on Saturday will become more
southerly but remain light. Scattered thunderstorms possible each
day through the weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds
and seas. Outside of convection, seas will be generally 2 ft or
less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  92  79  92 /  20  70  30  90
West Kendall     77  93  76  92 /  20  80  30 100
Opa-Locka        79  93  78  93 /  20  70  30  90
Homestead        79  92  78  92 /  20  60  40  90
Fort Lauderdale  80  92  79  92 /  20  70  30  90
N Ft Lauderdale  80  92  79  92 /  20  70  30  90
Pembroke Pines   81  94  80  94 /  20  70  30  90
West Palm Beach  79  92  77  93 /  20  70  30  90
Boca Raton       79  91  77  91 /  30  70  30  90
Naples           77  91  79  91 /  30  20  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...17