094
FXUS62 KMFL 011923
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
223 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 137 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

  - Flood watch remains in effect for the Lake Okeechobee Region
    as well as the eastern half of South Florida through Monday as
    the potential for additional heavy rainfall and flooding
    continues.

  - Minor to Moderate coastal flooding expected during times of
    high tide.

  - Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the
    Atlantic coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 137 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

A broad mid level disturbance will generally remain parked over
South Florida as well as the Eastern Gulf heading into tonight
and most of Monday. At the surface, the remnants of a stalled
frontal boundary will continue to affect the region during this
time frame. The latest 18z ACARS data features a long and skinny
profile throughout the atmospheric column with PWAT values
hovering close to 2 inches this afternoon. The pressure gradient
remains also remains tight across South Florida as strong high
pressure remains centered over the Mid Atlantic region. This is
keeping a rather strong and gusty easterly wind flow in place
across the area. The abundance of moisture combined with what is
left of the weak frontal boundary as well as the mid level
disturbance will continue to allow for rounds of additional
showers and thunderstorms to develop tonight into Monday.

While some of the stronger thunderstorms will contain gusty
winds, the bigger concern here will be the continued potential for
multiple rounds of heavy downpours will high rainfall rates.
These rounds of heavy downpours will add to the potential for
additional flooding concerns across the eastern half of the South
Florida as well as the Lake Okeechobee region through tonight and
into Monday. Some locations across the east coast metro areas as
well as the Lake Okeechobee region have already seen 1 to 3 inches
of rainfall with some isolated totals of 4 to 6 inches mainly in
portions of Glades and Hendry Counties. An additional 1 to 3
inches will remain possible tonight into Monday across most of the
region, with locally higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible
where the stronger storms set up. The best chances of the higher
end totals will be located across the east coast metro areas as
well as the Lake Okeechobee region.

Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the upper 60s
west of Lake Okeechobee to the lower 70s across the coastal areas.
With plenty of cloud cover and rainfall anticipated for Monday,
high temperatures will remain below normal and will generally
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s across most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

A brief period of mid/upper level ridging is expected early to
mid-week, with low-level easterly flow continuing around the
surface ridge. This will likely keep us from completely drying out
through early next week. However, by mid-week, a frontal system
moving through the central CONUS is forecast to start pushing the
low-level ridge northeastward. This will give us a more southerly
component to the low-level winds and end the persistent shower
activity. It`ll still be humid, just not as wet. There is a ton of
model divergence on how that central CONUS system evolves, but it
seems like the majority of the solutions bring a pretty weak
frontal boundary through Florida by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue to affect
the region through the rest of this afternoon and into tonight.
Periods of MVFR or IFR will remain possible during this time
frame. Easterly winds of 10 to 15 kts will continue through the
rest of this afternoon and into tonight. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts
will be common especially across the east coast terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 137 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters
tonight and into the early portion of the week as a fresh to strong
easterly breeze remains in place combined with a lingering
northeasterly swell. Across the Gulf waters, a moderate to fresh
easterly breeze will continue through Monday before gradually
starting to diminish on Tuesday. Seas across the Atlantic waters
will generally range between 6 to 9 feet through Monday while
seas across the Gulf waters will remain between 2 to 4 feet.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
across all local waters through the early portion of the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

The onshore flow and elevated winds and seas will keep a High Risk
for rip currents across Atlantic beaches well into this week.
Large breakers are expected through at least today across Broward
and Palm beaches, with a high surf advisory in effect for these
locations. Higher than usual tides will also create elevated water
levels near the coast. Dangerous beach and swim conditions are
expected through mid-week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 137 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Believe it or not we`re nearing the ebb of the astronomical tides
between the full and new moons. While we may briefly (and barely)
drop below moderate flood levels on Monday, probabilities of at
least reaching low-end moderate flood levels appear too high to
let the Coastal Flood Advisory drop. Water levels are forecast to
gradually start climbing again by mid-week as we draw closer and
closer to the New Moon on Nov 9. Hopefully we`ll be able to remove
the strong onshore wind component and pull back some of the heavy
rain potential as astronomical tide levels start to rise again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  81  75  84 /  80  80  60  60
West Kendall     74  82  75  85 /  80  70  60  60
Opa-Locka        73  82  74  85 /  80  80  60  60
Homestead        74  83  75  86 /  80  70  60  60
Fort Lauderdale  73  80  74  83 /  80  80  70  70
N Ft Lauderdale  73  81  75  84 /  80  80  70  70
Pembroke Pines   73  82  74  85 /  80  80  60  70
West Palm Beach  72  81  74  83 /  80  80  70  70
Boca Raton       73  81  75  83 /  80  80  70  70
Naples           70  82  71  85 /  60  50  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ063-066>068-071>074-
     168-172>174.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for FLZ168-172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...CWC