867
FXUS62 KMFL 190510
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
110 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 103 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

 - Record heat possible again today. A Heat Advisory is in effect
   for all of South FL.

 - Scattered thunderstorms expected late in the day. Storm chances
   increase for the end of the week through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

After a history making day in Miami on Tuesday with the high temp
hitting 100, it`s not time to let the guard down, as the heat will
be a major factor again today. Surface high pressure will remain
over the central Gulf today and Thursday, while the upper level
ridge begins to break down over the region as a trough starts to dig
into the eastern US. Global models are still hinting at a weak
mid/upper level low over the northeastern Gulf over the next couple
of days.

Today will start out dry across South FL, however low level moisture
will slowly start increasing as the day progresses as the higher
concentrations of Saharan dust finally get shunted south of the
area. PWAT values of 1.8-1.9 inches are expected by late afternoon.
The east coast sea-breeze will take its time to begin pushing inland
but by mid afternoon should be making it`s way through the metro.
Some scattered thunderstorms are expected late in the day along the
breeze. The heat will continue to be the main story today though.
With west to northwest flow over the area through at least early
afternoon, high temps will easily reach the mid to upper 90s. While
the mean forecast high for Miami is around 97, the latest NBM probs
once again have about a 10% chance of reaching 100 at the airport,
so definitely not out of the realm of possibility that Miami does it
for the second day in a row. The timing of the sea-breeze making it
to the airport will likely be the determining factor. Heat indices
this afternoon will reach 105-112, so yet another Heat Advisory will
be in place for all of South FL from 11 AM to 7 PM.

Convection will likely linger for several hours after dark until
fully dissipating and skies begin to start clearing overnight. Low
temps tonight remain mild ranging from the middle 70s over inland
south FL to lower 80s near the coasts.

Moisture further increases on Thursday with forecast soundings
showing PWAT values of around 2 inches. Latest hi-res guidance is in
fairly good agreement of convection getting an earlier start in the
afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms from mid
afternoon through early evening. With the anticipated earlier start
to convection that should help temps stay a tad lower on Thursday,
albeit still above normal. Expecting highs in the low to mid 90s
across the metro, and mid to upper 90s over inland South FL. Heat
indices will still reach 105-110 by early afternoon before rain
starts to cool some areas down, so additional heat headlines may be
needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The extended period will see a much needed return to a more typical
summertime pattern. An upper level ridge will be anchored over the
western US while the eastern US will remain under the influence of a
trough. Surface high pressure will remain over the Gulf this weekend
into early next week. Expect mainly diurnally driven sea-breeze
convection each day with seasonable PoPs (40-60%) favoring the
afternoon and early evening hours, and then widely scattered coastal
showers during the overnight period.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend and into
early next week. Max heat indices will remain around advisory
criteria each day, so additional heat headlines will remain
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions the first half of the day with light west to
northwesterly winds. SE winds around 10 kts expected this
afternoon for the east coast terminals. Scattered thunderstorms
possible late in the day across the east coast terminals which may
result in erratic winds and brief flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Moderate west to northwest breeze across the Gulf waters today, with
gentle to moderate southerly winds across the Atlantic. Seas
generally 2 ft or less. Scattered thunderstorms are possible late in
the day which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Record high temperatures are possible Wednesday. Here are the
current records for Wednesday:

         WED(YEAR)

MIA      96 (1909)
FLL      97 (1952)
DJT      97 (1938)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            97  81  94  80 /  40  30  60  20
West Kendall     97  78  94  77 /  40  30  60  20
Opa-Locka        97  81  95  80 /  40  40  60  20
Homestead        96  79  93  80 /  20  20  50  10
Fort Lauderdale  95  81  93  80 /  40  30  50  30
N Ft Lauderdale  96  81  94  81 /  50  30  60  30
Pembroke Pines   97  81  94  80 /  40  40  60  20
West Palm Beach  96  79  94  79 /  50  20  60  20
Boca Raton       94  79  93  79 /  50  30  60  20
Naples           92  79  92  79 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF