021
FXUS62 KMFL 231949
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
349 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 347 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

 - Scattered thunderstorms today will focus mainly over interior
   and SW FL. Increasing rain chances this weekend into early next
   week.

 - Heat index values will range from 100-105 across Southeast
   Florida and up to 105-110 across Southwest Florida this
   afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

This morning`s 12Z MFL sounding revealed a fairly dry atmospheric
column with a small local maximum of saturation within the first
km of the atmosphere, coinciding overall with a PWAT of 1.56".
Mesoanalysis data has since confirmed increasing moisture levels
across our region with an easterly advective regime in place
associated with an elongated upper-level disturbance crossing over
Cuba and vorticity maxima extending northward into the Florida
peninsula. This large-scale forcing mechanism in combination with
PWATs of 1.6-1.8" that have gradually filtered into our region
from east to west over the past few hours have led to scattered
shower activity this morning across our eastern metros. Winds will
be strictly out of the east throughout the course of the day
today with a weak area of high pressure over the northeast Gulf of
America dictating our surface flow. With the development of a
Gulf breeze later this afternoon amidst this easterly flow, HREF
and NBM guidance indicate that scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be consolidating across the western half of
South Florida through the early evening. With forecast soundings
indicating DCAPE values of 1000-1300 j/kg and a fairly uniform
flow across all height levels, a rogue downburst or two capable of
producing strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall
and frequent lighting will be the coincident hazards with
thunderstorms that develop during the latter half of the day. Heat
index values are expected to remain below heat advisory criteria
today as they will range between 102 and 108 degrees across the
region.

We are expecting additional amounts of moisture to intrude our
region from east west during the overnight hours into Friday
morning as the aforementioned upper low over Cuba continues to
slide westward and advect PWATs of 2.0-2.2" in our general
direction. This will result in a slight uptick in shower and
isolated storm activity across our local Atlantic waters and east
coast during this specific time period. A westward-retreating
ridge of high pressure over the northeast Gulf will allow our
easterly surface flow to weaken somewhat and for the diurnal Gulf
breeze to penetrate further inland than today. This will lead to
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early
evening hours and a modest eastward advancement in our highest
regional PoPs of 60-80%, which will be governing the interior and
Gulf coast locales. Despite most of South Florida likely remaining
below heat advisory thresholds again tomorrow, peak heat index
values of 103-108 degrees could still result in heat stroke
without proper hydration or effective cooling. Take the adequate
precautions by limiting your time outdoors in the direct sunlight,
taking frequent breaks in the shade, drinking plenty of water,
and dressing in light-colored/lightweight clothing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

As we look towards the weekend and into the beginning of next week,
upper level ridging will build into the western US, while troughing
deepens over the eastern US and western Atlantic. This will allow a
series of fronts to drop down from the northern Plains towards the
Southeast US coast before dissipating. A stream of enhanced deeper
level moisture will set up across South FL the end of this weekend
into next week as it gets squeezed between the trough in the eastern
US and high pressure in the central Atlantic. Another noticeable
difference during this time period is that the low level flow across
South FL will become more westerly starting Sunday and lasting
through at least the early part of next week. This will bring the
focus of convection each afternoon into early evening more into the
east coast metro, resulting in higher than normal PoPs each day.
While the rainfall is certainly welcome news given the ongoing
drought conditions across the area, will need to be on the lookout
for localized urban and poor drainage flooding each day.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal,
with highs each day generally in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices of
105-110 will be possible each day, but with the increased rainfall
chances it`ll be tough to reach criteria for at least 2 hours each
day, so any hazard decisions will likely be made on a day by day
basis.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Although VFR should prevail for the rest of this afternoon, some
periods of VCSH are still possible over the Atl terminals through
around 00-01Z. VCTS may still result in brief periods of
restricted vis/cigs at APF through around 00Z. Mainly VFR prevails
tonight. SE winds in the 10-12kt will shift E tonight around
6-8kt, then back again to SE around 10-12kt Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day through the
upcoming weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds and
seas. Outside of convection, moderate ENE breeze today in the
Atlantic waters with light and variable winds in the Gulf. Seas 1-3
ft in the Gulf and 1-2 ft in the Atlantic.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Moderate easterly flow today will result in an elevated risk of rip
currents along the east coast beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  91  80  93 /  50  40  20  80
West Kendall     77  92  77  93 /  40  50  20  90
Opa-Locka        80  93  79  94 /  50  40  20  80
Homestead        79  91  79  92 /  60  50  30  70
Fort Lauderdale  81  90  80  92 /  60  40  20  70
N Ft Lauderdale  81  90  80  92 /  60  50  20  70
Pembroke Pines   81  93  81  94 /  50  40  20  80
West Palm Beach  79  91  79  92 /  50  60  10  80
Boca Raton       80  90  79  91 /  50  50  20  70
Naples           77  92  77  91 /  20  70  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AD
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...17