180
FXUS62 KMFL 261042
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
642 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

 - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening.
   Locally heavy rain may lead to isolated instances of urban or
   poor drainage flooding.

 - Heat index values over 100 degrees will continue through the
   upcoming work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A pattern shift is expected today which will last into much of the
next week. Surface high pressure over the north-central Gulf early
this morning will slide to the southern Gulf throughout the day.
Meanwhile, a surface front remains nearly stalled over the SE US
with strong high pressure over the central Atlantic. At the upper
levels, ridging remains over the western US and a longwave trough
remains over the northeast US. Locally, our low and mid level flow
will become more westerly today and Monday. This will focus the bulk
of the convection over inland areas and towards the east coast
metro. A river of enhanced moisture squeezed between the surface
front and the strong high over the Atlantic will stretch back across
FL. Forecast soundings show deep moisture throughout the column with
PWAT values of 2.1-2.3 inches. Convection today and again on Monday
will be maximized during the afternoon and early evening hours. With
high rainfall rates expected and slow storm motions, will continue
to be on the watch for isolated instances of urban and poor drainage
flooding. Overnight tonight, convection will dissipate with just
some widely scattered coastal showers and isolated thunderstorms
expected.

High temperatures today and Monday will be in the lower 90s. The
heat combined with mid to upper 70s dewpoints will result in max
heat indices both days in the 105-110 range. However, with the
higher than average PoPs and timing of convection beginning early in
the afternoon, it`ll be difficult to achieve advisory heat indices
for at least a couple hours, therefore will hold off on headlines.
Regardless though, anyone with outdoor plans should remain hydrated
and take plenty of breaks to protect themselves from the heat.
Overnight low temps tonight will range from the middle 70s over
inland areas, to upper 70s closer to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The unsettled pattern will remain across South FL for the remainder
of the upcoming work week. A broad upper level trough will remain
over New England and the Mid Atlantic, with surface and upper level
high pressure over the central Atlantic. The trough will likely
deepen across the eastern US as the week progresses as the high in
the Atlantic noses to the west. The area of enhanced moisture is
expected to remain across South FL for much of the week. With the
low/mid level flow remaining westerly, this will result in above
average PoPs across the east coast metro each day. While the
rainfall will be much appreciated given the ongoing drought, will
need to be on guard for the potential of urban and poor drainage
flooding each day across the metro.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal,
with high temps generally in the low to mid 90s and low temps
ranging from the middle 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer
to the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Light and variable winds this morning becoming westerly 5-10 kts
late morning through the rest of the day. Scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight
restrictions and erratic winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Gentle to moderate west/southwest breeze is expected across the
Atlantic waters today, with moderate northwesterly winds across the
Gulf. Seas in both the Atlantic and the Gulf will be a foot or less.
Scattered thunderstorms over the area waters this morning and again
late this evening may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  77  92  78 /  80  30  60  20
West Kendall     91  74  92  75 /  80  30  60  20
Opa-Locka        92  77  93  78 /  80  30  50  20
Homestead        91  77  91  78 /  80  30  60  20
Fort Lauderdale  91  78  91  79 /  80  30  50  20
N Ft Lauderdale  91  78  92  78 /  80  30  50  20
Pembroke Pines   93  79  93  79 /  80  30  50  20
West Palm Beach  92  77  93  77 /  70  20  50  30
Boca Raton       91  76  91  77 /  80  20  50  30
Naples           90  79  91  80 /  60  40  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...Rizzuto