526
FXUS62 KMFL 291124
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
724 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 723 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

 - Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected during high
   tide today, with moderate flooding into the end of this week.
   Inundated roadways are expected for coastal areas.

 - Marine and beach conditions will remain gradually improve today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A slight transition is in the works for South Florida as we head
into the end of the week and the weekend. The pressure gradient
responsible for the breezy conditions the past couple of days will
continue to relax as the area of low pressure previously over the
Bahamas continues to drift eastward over the Atlantic Ocean. As this
happens, an area of surface pressure over the southeastern US will
extend south along the peninsula, driving continued light
northeasterly flow across the area. Moisture will also continue
to advect across South Florida along the periphery of this surface
ridge, with forecast soundings showing well-moistened lower
levels likely through the period. However, chances for
precipitation will remain generally on the lower end each
afternoon (PoPs in the 30-40% range at best), thanks to ridging
and drier air sitting aloft. A few pop-up showers and a rogue
thunderstorm or two could still develop as diurnal heating destabilizes
the atmospheric column, but convective growth should be limited
by subsidence associated with the ridge.

High temperatures will rise a few degrees as high pressure builds
and more sunshine is possible, so temperatures will reach the mid to
upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A wetter pattern looks likely this weekend as mid-level ridging over
the Gulf is forecast to break down, giving way to a more zonal flow
pattern aloft across the Florida peninsula. At the same time, an
upper level shortwave feature will begin to develop over the western
Gulf. Moisture will pool across the area on Saturday ahead of this
feature, and with ridging aloft and near the surface both weakening,
weaker northeasterly winds will allow sea breeze dynamics to once
again play a more prominent role in convective development during
the afternoon. This will mean a gradual increase in rain chances
through the day, with the majority of convection focused across
interior and southwest FL during the afternoon hours where the
breezes meet. Afternoon temperatures could peak in the upper 80s.

Conditions become more unsettled Sunday into Monday as the
aforementioned upper-level disturbance approaches the peninsula.
This feature will help support large-scale ascent across the area,
and should cool the mid-levels enough to support more instability
along the atmospheric column. This is supported by the ECMWF Extreme
Forecast Index (EFI) from yesterday`s 12Z run, which shows the
ensemble leaning towards unusually high CAPE across the area.As
such, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall will be the main concerns with any of the stronger storms
that develop.

Conditions look to dry out as we head into the middle of next week,
with chances for rainfall limited to some coastal showers each day
(PoPs 15-20%). Temperatures will cool down a bit Sunday-Monday with
the increased storminess and cloud cover, with highs in the mid 80s.
Lows will slide into the mid 60s across the interior, and the low
70s along the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Overcast ceilings over KAPF will maintain IFR/LIFR conditions
through the early morning hours. Elsewhere, generally VFR
conditions expected through the period. Northeasterly winds will
persist, with a few isolated showers possible for East Coast
terminals through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Boating conditions start to gradually improve today as surface high
builds over the area. Northeasterly winds 10-15 knots will prevail
through Friday, and could increase back up to Advisory criteria
across the Atlantic waters this weekend. Scattered showers will
continue each day with a few isolated thunderstorms possible.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Coastal flooding remains likely along the South Florida
coastlines during the high tide cycles today. Observations continue
to out-perform guidance by a decent margin, leading us to
anticipate tidal gauges to continue reaching Moderate flooding
levels once again today. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory
remains in effect for the Atlantic coastline, while a Coastal
Flood Statement remains in effect for mainland Monroe, where
Minor stage coastal flooding could be possible.

A high risk of rip currents will also persist along the Palm Beach
county beaches through Friday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            87  75  86  76 /  30  20  30  30
West Kendall     88  75  87  76 /  30  10  30  20
Opa-Locka        88  75  87  76 /  30  20  30  30
Homestead        88  75  87  76 /  20  20  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  85  75  84  76 /  30  20  20  40
N Ft Lauderdale  86  75  85  76 /  30  20  20  40
Pembroke Pines   87  74  87  75 /  30  20  20  30
West Palm Beach  85  74  84  75 /  30  20  30  40
Boca Raton       85  75  84  76 /  30  20  20  40
Naples           87  72  87  73 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Rizzuto