491
FXUS62 KMFL 172159
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
559 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1225 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

The passage of a weak frontal boundary to the south of our region
over the last several hours has resulted in an enhancement of a
pressure gradient and consequently an increase in surface wind
speeds over our local waters and the immediate east coast. For the
remainder of the region, nocturnal stratification has resulted in
the decoupling of winds inland resulting in calm conditions with a
light northeasterly breeze persisting from time to time. ACARS
(aircraft data) from SoFlo airports as well as tonight`s 00z MFL
upper air sounding continue to depict quite the dry atmosphere from
800mb up with a copious amount of mid-level dry air present. The
1.24 inch precipitable water value observed on the 00z MFL sounding
remains below the 25% percentile of historical precipitable water
for this time of year. A shallow layer of moisture remains from the
surface up to 800mb which may still support the potential of quick
moving vertically-capped isolated showers from time to time, mainly
along the immediate east coast of the region during the first half
of today. Based on current radar trends via KAMX, have bumped up
rain chances along the east coast of South Florida to 15-20%
over the next couple of hours. Rain chances across the region
will remain less than 10% this afternoon as instability remains
meager and drier mid-level air mixes down to the surface via
diurnal mixing. With the recouping of winds after daybreak, the
influence of the strengthening pressure gradient will be felt
across the region with breezy to gusty northeasterly winds, especially
picking up during the afternoon hours. The enhancement of onshore
winds will create a notable temperature gradient across the
region this afternoon with forecasted high temperatures in the low
to middle 80s across the eastern half of the region and highs in
the upper 80s (even a few locales potentially reaching 90F) across
the western half of the region.

With the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in full
swing, the next longwave trough across the western United States
will begin to amplify and pivot eastward today. This will result in
the axis of mid-level ridging across the central Gulf to slide
eastward over the Florida Peninsula and local waters today into
early Saturday. As the longwave trough across the central United
States continues to amplify this weekend, mid-level ridging over the
Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters will gradually flatten out and
weaken. Persistent mid-level northwesterly flow may veer more west-
northwesterly or even westerly during this time frame. The axis of
expansive surface ridging situated across the eastern United States
will advect eastward into the western Atlantic waters, veering local
surface flow out of a more easterly direction. This will result in a
slight weakening of the pressure gradient on Saturday, although
winds will still remain breezy, especially along the east coast of
South Florida. Even with winds veering to a more easterly direction
and lessening slightly in intensity, there will still be an
afternoon temperature gradient across the region on Saturday with
forecasted highs ranging from the low to mid 80s along the east
coast of South Florida and Lake Okeechobee with temperatures in
the upper 80s expected across southwestern Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1225 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

The aforementioned mid-level trough will arrive across the Great
Lakes region on Sunday with an associated surface low also pivoting
across the region. A sprawling frontal boundary associated with the
distant surface low will sweep across the southeastern United States
on Sunday and arrive across South Florida during the day on Monday.
The ECWMF and GFS have both trended on a less amplified trough but
still depict the passage of the subtropical jet over South Florida.
While the phasing of the right entrance region of a jet-streak will
pass over South Florida during the day on Monday, the lack of ample
moisture return and instability across the region appears to keep
the threat of more robust convection minimal at this time. During
this time frame, high temperatures will trend higher as breezy
diurnally easterly flow continues. High temperatures in the low 90s
are possible on Sunday and once again on Monday across southwestern
Florida with forecasted high temps in the mid to upper 80s across
the east coast metro.

As mid-level troughing slides into the western Atlantic waters on
Tuesday, the subtropical jet and upstream waves will remain active
across the eastern United States as additional lobes of mid-level
vorticity amplify and advect eastward across the Great Lakes.
Associated surface lows will also advect from west to east across
the Great Lakes dragging sprawling frontal boundaries across most of
the eastern half of the country. These reinforcing frontal
boundaries will remain weak upon arrival to South Florida, with no
measurable dip in temperature behind each passage, however they will
continue to reinforce the dry airmass in place across the region
by keeping surface wind flow out of a northerly direction and
ushering in dry air that will gradually mix down in the atmosphere.
With a lack of precipitation and ample sunshine, temperatures
will remain slightly above average for this time of year during
this time frame with forecasted afternoon high temperatures each
day during the middle to late park of the week remaining in the
upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Gusty Northeast flow
will begin to subside overnight, with NE winds 10-14 kts expected
most of the day on Saturday.

 &&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Northeasterly winds will remain fresh to strong today and Saturday
before lessening during the second half of the weekend and veering
more east-southeasterly. The continued arrival of northeasterly
swell interacting with the Gulfstream current will result in seas
remaining in the 5-7 feet range across our Atlantic waters today
into early Saturday. Seas across the Gulf waters will range from 2
to 3 feet today, increasing to the 3 to 5 feet range by Saturday. A
few isolated showers are possible across our local waters during the
first half of today before drier conditions are expected across the
region during the first half of the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1225 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A high risk of rip currents will continue across all east coast
beaches of South Florida today. With breezy onshore winds and a
northeasterly swell arriving along our coast, the high risk of rip
currents for the east coast of South Florida will continue through
at least Sunday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1225 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

The combination of higher than normal tidal levels due to the lunar
cycle, enhancing onshore flow, and northeasterly swell will result
in the continued potential of minor coastal flooding within 1.5 to 2
hours of high tide along the east coast over the next several days.
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for coastal Miami-Dade,
Broward, and Palm Beach counties through at least Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  84  75  87 /   0   0   0  20
West Kendall     70  85  72  87 /   0   0   0  20
Opa-Locka        72  85  74  87 /   0   0   0  20
Homestead        72  83  74  86 /   0   0   0  30
Fort Lauderdale  73  83  75  85 /   0   0   0  10
N Ft Lauderdale  72  83  75  86 /   0   0   0  10
Pembroke Pines   72  86  74  89 /   0   0   0  20
West Palm Beach  72  83  73  87 /   0   0   0  10
Boca Raton       72  84  74  87 /   0   0   0  10
Naples           69  88  70  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...99