Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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299 FXUS62 KMFL 251358 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 958 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 957 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Showers are gradually increasing over Collier and M Monroe counties as SW flow establishes. POPs for those areas have been adjusted to reflect the slightly larger area of coverage, along with mention of possible thunderstorms before noon. Additional thunderstorms are likely this afternoon, moving generally west- to-east, but the overall weak background flow could result in sea breeze/outflow boundaries keeping some showers lingering longer over the same locations. Thus, there is potential for localized flooding, especially over the east coast metro areas later this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Typical summertime conditions will continue across South Florida through mid-week, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. These are being fueled by deep tropical moisture (PWAT values of 2-2.3) pooled over the area, as well as diurnal heating, moderate instability, and subtle mid-level troughing. Low-level winds will be weak and out of the south to southwest, which will generally lead to a convective regime of showers and thunderstorms initiating along sea breeze boundaries late in the morning, and then moving towards the interior and East Coast metro during the afternoon and early evening hours. The low to mid level wind fields will be quite weak overall, leading to slow storm motions and localized flooding concerns in poor drainage areas or locations that see multiple rounds of storms. A few storms could also become strong, capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s today and Wednesday, with afternoon heat indices around 100-105. Overnight lows be warm, dropping to the mid 70s over the inland areas and upper 70s to low 80s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Overall, the weather pattern of hot days and diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will continue through the long term period. In the mid-levels, weak troughing will linger over the region through Friday, sitting in a lull between two ridges over the South-Central US and eastern Caribbean, as well as troughing over the US eastern seaboard. Over the weekend, the mid-level troughing will be gradually pushed out as the mid-level ridging builds and shifts east over the northern Gulf states. With this synoptic setup, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Low-level winds will be out of the southwest through Friday, keeping the pattern of convection initiating along sea-breeze boundaries before moving over the interior and East Coast metro during the afternoon and early evening. By this weekend, winds will flip to out of the southeast, shifting the convective pattern to focus over the interior and Gulf Coast during the afternoon. Overall weak winds in the low to mid levels will continue to result in slow storm motions and localized flooding concerns for areas that are hit repeatedly or have poor drainage. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, with heat index values routinely reaching the triple digits each day, with some pockets reaching the 105 to 110 range by late in the week and over the weekend. Overnight lows will also remain warm, generally in the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 735 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions will give way to periods of MVFR/IFR as showers as and thunderstorms begin to develop after 16/17Z. Light and variable winds will become somewhat erratic late this morning into the early afternoon hours, with winds shifting from SSE to SW at 8-10kt after 16Z with uncertainty regarding the east coast sea breeze. Winds will again become light and variable this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Winds will turn to a gentle south to southwesterly flow today and remain that way for most of the week, resulting in generally benign conditions. Both Atlantic and Gulf seas will be quite smooth at generally 1 foot or less. The one exception to the relatively calm marine conditions will be the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms to create locally higher winds and seas each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 77 91 77 / 60 50 70 30 West Kendall 90 75 91 74 / 60 40 60 20 Opa-Locka 91 77 91 76 / 60 50 70 30 Homestead 90 76 90 76 / 60 40 60 20 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 89 77 / 70 50 70 30 N Ft Lauderdale 90 77 90 77 / 70 50 70 30 Pembroke Pines 92 78 93 78 / 70 50 70 30 West Palm Beach 90 76 91 76 / 70 50 70 30 Boca Raton 91 76 91 76 / 70 50 70 30 Naples 88 79 89 79 / 60 40 60 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...17 SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....Culver