121
FXUS62 KMFL 232244
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
644 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

 - Smoke from wildfires in the area could produce lower
   visibilities and unhealthy air quality over portions of the
   Everglades and western suburbs.

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
   to develop over the interior and east coast metro areas through
   the early evening hours. An isolated marginally severe storm
   or two is possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
across the interior and east coast metro areas along sea breeze
boundary collisions as well as additional thunderstorm outflow
boundary collisions through early this evening. The atmospheric
column remains unstable across the interior and east coast as SB
CAPE values range from 4500-5000 J/kg across these areas this
afternoon. With DCAPE values ranging between 1000 and 1200 J/kg,
this will be supportive of the stronger thunderstorms having the
potential to produce wind gusts in excess of 50 mph this afternoon
into early this evening. As the evening progresses and diurnal
heating begins to wane, shower and thunderstorm activity will
gradually diminish across most areas during this time frame. Low
temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s
across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 70s along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The deep trough draped across the eastern US with low pressure
centered over the Great Lakes will remain the primary synoptic
feature of interest in the short term. While the axis of this trough
will not reach South Florida, an upper level shortwave at the base
of the trough could provide some extra forcing for ascent as it
advects across the area Sunday night into Monday. However, another
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) looks to advect into the area as well during
this same time frame. The thickness of this SAL is expected to be
much less than the previous one, but it will still impact the
weather outlook through Monday. In terms of today`s setup, a rinse
and repeat situation from yesterday appears to be in store as low
level flow remains mostly southerly with perhaps a slight
southwesterly component. This will keep the focus of convection
towards inland South Florida (at least to start) this afternoon
before outflow boundaries interact with the sea breezes and produce
some storms closer to the coastal metro areas. An isolated severe
thunderstorm or two once again cannot be ruled out in the form of
downburst winds that are most likely to occur with a storm formed by
converging boundaries or cell mergers.

Heading into Sunday night and Monday, the intrusion of the drier
SAL air mass will result in both mid-level dry air presence and
low- level profiles resembling an inverted-V near the surface.
This results in steepened low level lapse rates and the potential
for a couple of strong to severe storms to develop if an updraft
or two can bust through the cap created by the dust layer. With
that said, overall convective coverage is expected to be lower
than without the dust since the dry air provides some inhibition
to convection. The storms that do form though will have chances to
become strong to severe. PWATs will still be over 1.5", so some
scattered showers and storms are still likely regardless but just
not as widespread as days without a SAL presence.

High temperatures for today and tomorrow will continue to be in the
low to mid 90s. Maximum heat index values will primarily be in the
100-105F range, but many areas will experience brief periods where
indices could be up to the 105-110F range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

For the middle to end of this coming week, surface and low level
high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will begin to
expand back over the region and cause winds to shift back to an
easterly or east-southeast direction. This easterly to east-
southeast regime will produce a pattern that is common in the
summertime across South Florida with convection being driven by the
sea breeze circulations and being steered towards the Gulf coast
areas. At the same time, the weak SAL will dissipate by mid-week and
allow for the deeper moisture to be utilized for widespread shower
and thunderstorm development. Highest rain chances (60-80%) each day
will be across Southwest Florida and this will last through the end
of the long term period. There will be a chance for an upper level
shortwave to develop and advect across the region late in the week,
which could cause convection to become widespread across the entire
South Florida forecast area. However, uncertainty remains high in
regards to this feature.

High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each
day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and
lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Shower and thunderstorm activity over the interior and east coast
will gradually diminish as the evening progresses and winds will
become light and variable during this time frame. Winds remain
light and variable across all terminals overnight before
increasing out of the SE after 16z Monday to around 10 kts across
the east coast terminals. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the
SW after 16z Monday as a Gulf breeze pushes inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Light to gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf
waters today and into this coming week with southeasterly winds
across the Atlantic. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day
across all of the local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible late each day and in the late night hours over the
waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Wildfire activity is being monitored across the region with the
latest fire developing near Krome ave and the Miami-Dade/Broward
county line. Smoke from this fire is likely to mostly disperse
northwards but variable winds can result in smoke dispersing
multiple ways. The main impact to watch for is lowered visibilities,
particularly in the late night hours as nocturnal inversions form
and can trap smoke near the surface, resulting in smog.

Other than ongoing activity and the drought across the region
assisting in fire risk, weather conditions are generally not
suitable for increasing fire development as relative humidity values
remain 50-60% at minimum and winds remain on the lighter side.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  93  79  93 /  20  20  20  30
West Kendall     77  92  76  93 /  20  20  20  40
Opa-Locka        80  93  79  93 /  20  20  10  30
Homestead        78  92  78  92 /  20  20  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  79  92  79  92 /  20  10  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  80  93  80  93 /  20  20  10  30
Pembroke Pines   80  92  79  92 /  20  20  10  30
West Palm Beach  78  94  78  93 /  10  20  10  30
Boca Raton       79  91  79  91 /  20  10  10  30
Naples           77  92  77  93 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC