476
FXUS62 KMFL 072235
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
635 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

 - Scattered thunderstorms over interior SW FL early this evening.

 - Persistent easterly winds will maintain a High Risk of Rip
   Currents into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Overall less convection coverage than was anticipated as the weak
disturbance passed further north of the area. Still seeing plenty
of thunderstorms over interior South FL and around the lake
region.

Latest model runs for the SAL is now showing higher concentrations
early to mid next week, and ensemble means are showing below
normal PWAT values next week, so PoPs continue to trend downward
next week. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast largely remains on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Deep-layered high pressure remains anchored over the
western Atlantic, while an inverted trough continues to lift north
of the Bahamas. Recent water vapor satellite imagery and the 00Z MFL
sounding/ACARS data show mid-level dry air has filtered into the
region ahead of the disturbance, with a pronounced dry layer between
500-900 mb keeping PWATs around 1.5 to 1.6 inches. However, deep
tropical moisture is expected to pool into South Florida as the
disturbance moves closer to the peninsula today, pushing PWATs back
up toward 2.0 inches and supporting an increase in convective
coverage across the area. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are thus expected along the east coast in the morning
to early afternoon. A subtle shift to a more southeasterly steering
flow should displace the late afternoon convective focus further
inland toward the Lake Okeechobee region and northern interior,
where the highest PoPs (60-70%) are concentrated. Localized heavy
downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds will remain the
primary hazards with any strong storms. By Saturday, the inverted
trough will lift north and away from the region, though lingering
tropical moisture will maintain elevated PoPs across the area under
a similar diurnal pattern.

High temperatures today should remain in the low 90s given expected
cloud coverage, warming slightly into the mid 90s over the interior
and Southwest Florida on Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the low
80s along the immediate east coast and mid-to-upper 70s elsewhere.
Moderate HeatRisk will continue across the eastern half of South
Florida and western Collier County.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

High pressure builds back across the Florida peninsula by Sunday and
persists through the first half of the week, bringing overall
coverage down to a more typical sea-breeze driven convective
pattern. Thus, scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms are expected each day through the extended period.
Under prevailing easterly to southeasterly flow, early morning
showers are possible over the Atlantic waters and coastal areas each
day, with the highest convective coverage in the afternoon favoring
the interior under lighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes
early next week.

Other than the diurnal sea-breeze pattern, guidance continues to
hint at a plume of Saharan dust approaching South Florida Monday
night into Tuesday. If this dry air mass moves directly overhead, it
could suppress overall convective coverage and rain chances through
mid-week. However, if South Florida remains on the periphery of the
plume, the intrusion of mid-level dry air could bring potential for
severe wind concerns with isolated storms along sea-breeze
boundaries. Will continue to monitor the evolution of this airmass
in future guidance.

With high pressure in place and a slight warming trend expected
across South Florida, heat impacts will remain a concern through the
middle of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

ESE winds 5-10 kts overnight, increasing to 10-15 kts after 16Z
with an afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF. VCTS after 18Z at
APF. Probs too low for mention at this point for the east coast
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Moderate easterly winds will prevail across all local waters
through the weekend, with occasional fresh breezes over the
Atlantic today into Saturday driven by a passing disturbance north
of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
each day, which may result in periods of rough seas and gusty
winds. Seas across the Atlantic waters will range between 3 to 4
today before subsiding to around 2 feet through the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A High Risk of Rip Currents will remain in effect for all Atlantic
beaches through at least Saturday morning due to persistent moderate
easterly winds. The rip current risk should gradually decrease late
this weekend into early next week as winds relax across local
waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  91  81  91 /  30  10  20  20
West Kendall     79  91  78  92 /  20  10  20  20
Opa-Locka        81  92  81  92 /  30  10  20  20
Homestead        80  91  80  91 /  20  10  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  81  90 /  30  10  20  20
N Ft Lauderdale  81  91  81  91 /  30  10  30  30
Pembroke Pines   81  91  81  91 /  30  10  20  30
West Palm Beach  80  91  81  91 /  40  20  30  40
Boca Raton       80  90  81  90 /  30  20  30  30
Naples           77  91  77  91 /  20  50  20  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM....DPB
AVIATION...CMF