803
FXUS62 KMFL 250613
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
213 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

 - Isolated to scattered showers today, with a few embedded
   storms. No impacts expected.

 - Hazardous marine and beach conditions are expected today
   through at least tonight.

 - Minor coastal flooding is expected along portions of the
   Atlantic coast today and into this weekend during high tide
   cycles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

The weak frontal boundary will push through the area this morning
before settling over the Florida Straits to near Cuba. Drier air
will continue to advect into the mid-levels and this will continue
as long as flow remains northerly, which will occur at least through
Saturday due to South Florida being located on the western side of
an amplifying trough and is expected to strengthen further as it
progresses northeastwards. This trough is centered off the Mid-
Atlantic coast and is largely cut-off, so it will not move anywhere
until it either weakens or another disturbance comes and it forces
it away. The likely outcome is that another shortwave trough will
help to force this deep trough out of the US, but this is not
expected to occur until at least Sunday.

As a result, much more meager weather conditions are expected this
weekend with the drier air and more stable environment. Some
scattered shower activity remains possible and will focus mostly
over Southeast Florida each day since this is where the highest
moisture content will be, as well as where any convection is steered
towards under northerly to north-northwesterly flow. Other than some
meager showers and storms, no impacts are expected. High
temperatures are expected in the upper 80s today and tomorrow with
lows tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Through Sunday, prevailing flow will be out of the north as a
developing nor`easter in the New England region stalls before
eventually getting pushes out. This setup will keep drier air in the
atmospheric column along with inhibition of deep convection through
Sunday. While some positive vorticity impulses will stream across
the area and the diurnal sea breezes will still form, these alone
may not be enough to overcome the inhibition created by the dry air.
Nevertheless, some air parcels will be capable of lifting high
enough to produce some isolated to scattered showers and possible a
couple embedded storms but they will be of a weaker variety.

By early next week, the system in the northeast US will shift more
nortwards as a mid-to-upper level shortwave trough pushes across the
central US and deepens across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast US
regions. As this trough swings through the Florida Peninsula, low
level flow will shift back to a southerly to southwesterly direction
and result in the return of tropical moisture advection. With deeper
moisture arriving and this trough providing some upper level forcing
for ascent, rain chances will increase back to the 60-80% range by
Tuesday and into the middle of next week. Any potential impacts will
be assessed later on since this is at the end of the forecast period
and uncertainty is high.

High temperatures each day are still expected in the upper 80s to
around 90 each day for most areas. Overnight lows will be a few
degrees cooler through Monday night with the front clearing the
area, with lows near the lake region in the low to mid 60s and the
rest of the region seeing lows in the upper 60s to low 70s through
Monday night. By Tuesday night, warmer overnight lows will return.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR is expected to prevail for the period. A few showers will
develop in the vicinity of east coast terminals today, but this
should not create any restrictions. NW winds through this morning
around 8-10 kts will shift to the NNE along the east and NNW at
KAPF this afternoon after 16-18Z, before shifting back NW tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Hazardous conditions are expected today and into this weekend,
primarily across the Atlantic waters. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds will continue as a frontal boundary starts to clear the area,
and northerly/northeasterly swell will also increase throughout the
day today. Winds are expected to reach around 20 kts today and
tonight, which will be combined with seas of 7-10 feet in the
Atlantic. With these conditions, Small Craft Advisories are in
effect through at least early Saturday morning.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

A high risk for rip currents is in effect for all Atlantic coast
beaches as an increasing northerly/northeasterly swell and brisk
northerly winds occur today. In addition, a High Surf Advisory is
in effect for the Palm Beaches big breaking waves of up to 7-9 feet.

Furthermore, a King Tide Cycle is expected this weekend that will be
enhanced by a full moon cycle. Given the recent observations and
trends, we could see minor flooding as early as today, so a Coastal
Flood Statement has been issued for today`s high tide cycles and
this is likely to continue into this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  73  87  72 /  40  10  30  10
West Kendall     88  72  87  71 /  40  10  30   0
Opa-Locka        88  72  87  71 /  40  10  30   0
Homestead        89  72  88  72 /  40  20  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  88  73  86  72 /  40  20  30  10
N Ft Lauderdale  88  73  87  72 /  40  20  30  10
Pembroke Pines   88  72  87  71 /  40  20  30  10
West Palm Beach  87  72  86  71 /  40  30  10   0
Boca Raton       87  72  86  71 /  40  20  20  10
Naples           88  70  87  69 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Saturday evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ650-670.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Redman