023
FXUS62 KMFL 160504
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
104 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

 - Heat Advisory for all of South FL today. Heat impacts will
   linger into the upcoming week.

 - Stay tuned for further information on the developing heat
   episode, and be prepared to take precautionary/preventative
   actions in the coming days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Mostly dry and hot weather is expected today with areas of surface
high pressure over the Gulf and western Atlantic, and upper level
ridging aloft. Saharan dust filters into the region today and
Monday, which will aid in additional suppression of convection.
Outside of a slight chance of late day showers and storms around the
lake region and interior South FL, most of the area will remain dry
today. Afternoon high temps will be in the low to mid 90s across the
metro, to mid and upper 90s over the interior. A spot or two in the
Everglades could even reach triple digits during the afternoon.
Dewpoints will be a tad lower today with the drier air in place,
however peak heat indices are still expected to reach 105-110 this
afternoon. After consulting with neighboring offices, a Heat
Advisory will be in effect for the entire area from 11 AM to 7 PM.

Mainly clear tonight over the interior with scattered cumulus near
the coast. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s across
the interior to upper 70s closer to the coasts.

Moisture starts to increase in the low levels on Monday as the low
level flow becomes more southerly. Saharan dust will still help
suppress convection, however expect a bit more shower and
thunderstorm activity from mid afternoon through early evening,
especially along western portions of the east coast metro and
interior South FL, however PoPs will still run well below normal for
this time of year.  High temps will again be in the low to mid 90s
over the metro and mid to upper 90s over the interior. Max heat
indices will again reach 105-110 during the afternoon. Headlines
will almost certainly be needed for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

There`s some hint of an upper level low lingering near South FL
Tuesday into Wednesday, and the higher concentrations of Saharan
dust should start pushing south of the area, so PoPs will slowly
start to increase as the week progresses closer to climatological
norms. By late in the week the ridge weakens and an upper level
trough starts to dig into the eastern US, further increasing
moisture across the region. PoPs by the beginning of next weekend
should be right around climatological norms, with the highest each
day favoring inland and SW FL.

Heat will continue to be a story all week with temperatures
remaining above normal throughout the period and heat indices
flirting with advisory criteria each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected today. Light and variable winds
this morning becoming ESE around 10 kts this afternoon across the
east coast metro, with an afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Gentle east to southeast breeze across the Atlantic waters today,
with a gentle westerly breeze in the Gulf. Seas 2 ft or less. Mostly
benign conditions remain through at least early this upcoming
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            94  80  96  80 /   0   0  10  10
West Kendall     94  77  96  76 /  10   0  20   0
Opa-Locka        95  79  97  79 /  10   0  20  10
Homestead        94  78  95  77 /  10   0  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  93  79  95  80 /   0   0  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  94  79  97  81 /   0   0  20   0
Pembroke Pines   94  79  96  80 /  10   0  20  10
West Palm Beach  96  78  98  79 /   0   0  20   0
Boca Raton       93  79  95  79 /   0   0  10   0
Naples           94  78  93  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF